Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.     

Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: II. Heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling, and biodiversity

As part of the Canadian contribution to the International Polar Year (IPY), several major international research programs have focused on offshore arctic marine ecosystems. The general goal of these projects was to improve our understanding of how the response of arctic marine ecosystems to climate warming will alter food web structure and ecosystem services provided to Northerners. At least four key findings from these projects relating to arctic heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling and biodiversity have emerged: (1) Contrary to a long-standing paradigm of dormant ecosystems during the long arctic winter, major food web components showed relatively high level of winter activity, well before the spring release of ice algae and subsequent phytoplankton bloom. Such phenological plasticity among key secondary producers like zooplankton may thus narrow the risks of extreme mismatch between primary production and secondary production in an increasingly variable arctic environment. (2) Tight pelagic-benthic coupling and consequent recycling of nutrients at the seafloor characterize specific regions of the Canadian Arctic, such as the North Water polynya and Lancaster Sound. The latter constitute hot spots of benthic ecosystem functioning compared to regions where zooplankton-mediated processes weaken the pelagic-benthic coupling. (3) In contrast with another widely shared assumption of lower biodiversity, arctic marine biodiversity is comparable to that reported off Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Canada, albeit threatened by the potential colonization of subarctic species. (4) The rapid decrease of summer sea-ice cover allows increasing numbers of killer whales to use the Canadian High Arctic as a hunting ground. The stronger presence of this species, bound to become a new apex predator of arctic seas, will likely affect populations of endemic arctic marine mammals such as the narwhal, bowhead, and beluga whales.     

采用SilviScan-3TM研究木材性质的方法及其在气候变化研究中的应用

系统介绍了利用SilviScan-3TM测量细胞结构、木材密度、微纤丝角和划分年轮界线的方法,并以祁连山青海云杉为例,分析青海云杉6个木材性质参数(年轮细胞直径、年轮细胞壁厚、年轮宽度、年轮密度、年轮微纤丝角、年轮弹性模量)与气候因子的关系,以期为利用多个树轮参数研究气候提供参考。结果表明:6个木材性质参数与月平均气温和月降水量都有显著相关的月份,但显著相关的时间段不同,并且微纤丝角和细胞结构参数中包含的气候信息强于常用的年轮宽度和年轮密度。SilviScan-3TM测量木材性质参数的优越性体现在:测量精度高、速度快,能在同一个试样上测量多个参数并能精确定年。     

A Note on Reviving the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes （GSSTF） Dataset

Accurate sea surface flux measurements are crucial for understanding the global water and energy cycles. The oceanic evaporation, which is a major component of the global oceanic fresh water flux, is useful for predicting oceanic circulation and transport. The global Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version-2 (GSSTF2; July 1987--December 2000) dateset that was officially released in 2001 has been widely used by scientific community for global energy and water cycle research, and regional and short period data analyses. We have recently been funded by NASA to resume processing the GSSTF dataset with an objective of continually producing a uniform dataset of sea surface turbulent fluxes, derived from remote sensing data. The dataset is to be reprocessed and brought up-to-date (GSSTF2b) using improved input datasets such as a recently upgraded NCEP/DOE sea surface temperature reanalysis, and an upgraded surface wind and microwave brightness temperature V6 dataset (Version 6) from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) produced by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). A second new product (GSSTF3) is further proposed with a finer temporal (12-h) and spatial (0.25^ox0.25^o) resolution. GSSTF2b (July 1987--December 2008) and GSSTF3 (July 1999--December 2009) will be released for the research community to use by late 2009 and early 2011, respectively.     

Statistical Downscaling of Wind Variability from Meteorological Fields

Measurements show that on numerous occasions the low-level wind is highly variable across a large portion of south-eastern Australia. Under such conditions the risk of a large rapid change in total wind power is increased. While variability tends to increase with mean wind speed, a large component of wind variability is not explained by wind speed alone. In this work, reanalysis fields from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are statistically downscaled to model wind variability at a coastal location in Victoria, Australia. In order to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the NCEP fields are each decomposed using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) techniques. The downscaling technique is applied to two periods in the seasonal cycle, namely (i) winter to early spring, and (ii) summer. In each case, data representing 2 years are used to form a model that is then validated using independent data from another year. The EOFs that best predict wind variability are examined. To allow for non-linearity and complex interaction between variables, all empirical models are built using random forests. Quantitatively, the model compares favourably with a simple regression of wind variability against wind speed, as well as multiple linear regression models.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India

How big a threat is global warming to climate-sensitive and economically important sectors such as agriculture in developing countries? How well will farmers be able to adapt to the threats of global warming? This paper attempts to shed light on these two important questions. A cross-sectional analysis is employed to estimate the climate sensitivity of agriculture in Brazil and India. Using panel data from both countries, the study measures how net farm income or property values vary with climate, and consequently, how farmers in India and Brazil react and adapt to climate. The estimated relationships are then used to predict the consequence of alternative climate scenarios. Global warming by the end of the next century could cause annual damages in Brazil between 1% and 39% and between 4% and 26% in India, although some of this effect may be potentially offset by carbon fertilization. These estimates do not factor into account climate-induced extreme weather events.     

Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States

Global, national, and regional assessments of the potential effects of Global Climate Change (GCC) have been recently released, but not one of these assessments has specifically addressed the critical issue of the potential impacts of GCC on ephemeral freshwater systems (EFS). I suggest that this is a major oversight as EFS occur in various forms across the globe. In the northeastern United States, these systems, whether ephemeral (“vernal”) pools or ephemeral or intermittent headwater streams are abundant and provide unique habitats critical to the maintenance of forest biodiversity. Since the hydrology of these waterbodies is strongly affected by weather patterns (in the short-term) or climate (long-term), they are especially sensitive to climate change. In this essay, I review the literature on relationships between climate and hydrology of EFS and on relationships between hydrology and ecology of these systems. I then conclude with my assessment of potential impacts of GCC on the hydrology of EFS and implications for their ecology. The focus of this essay will be on EFS of the forests of the northeastern United States, but will include literature from other regions as they relate to the general relationships between GCC and EFS.     

A survey of possible impact structures on 25143 Itokawa

We determined the morphologies and dimensions of possible impact craters on the surface of Asteroid 25143 Itokawa from images taken by the Hayabusa spacecraft. Circular depressions, circular features with flat floors or convex floors, and circular features with smooth surfaces were identified as possible craters. The survey identified 38 candidates with widely varying morphologies including rough, smooth and saddle-shaped floors, a lack of raised rims and fresh material exposures. The average depth/diameter ratio was 0.08±0.03: these craters are very shallow relative to craters observed on other asteroids. These shallow craters are a result of (1) target curvature influencing the cratering process, (2) raised rim not being generated by this process, and (3) fines infilling the craters. As many of the crater candidates have an unusual appearance, we used a classification scheme that reflects the likelihood of an observed candidate's formation by a hypervelocity impact. We considered a variety of alternative interpretations while developing this scheme, including inherited features from a proto-Itokawa, spall scars created by the disruption of the proto-Itokawa, spall scars following the formation of a large crater on Itokawa itself, and apparent depressions due to random arrangements of boulders. The size-frequency distribution of the crater candidates was close to the empirical saturation line at the largest diameter, and then decline with decreasing diameter.     

Determining a tilt in Titan’s north-south albedo asymmetry from Cassini images

Analysis of Titan’s hemispheric brightness asymmetry from mapped Cassini images reveals an axis of symmetry that is tilted with respect to the rotational axis of the solid body. Twenty images taken from 2004 through 2007 show a mean axial offset of 3.8 ± 0.9° relative to the solid body’s pole, directed 79 ± 24° to the west of the sub-solar longitude. These values are consistent with recent measurements of an implied atmospheric spin axis determined from isothermal mapping by [Achterberg, R.K., Conrath, B.J., Gierasch, P.J., Flasar, F.M., Nixon, C.A., 2008. Icarus 197, 549-555].