Discriminant analysis for estimation of groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well construction: application to New Zealand aquifers

Concentrations of tritium, chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride have been measured at over 100 groundwater monitoring sites across New Zealand, followed by interpretation of groundwater age distribution using the exponential-piston flow model. Interpreted mean residence times ranged from less than 1 year to more than 100 years, with the 25th, 50th (median) and 75th percentiles being approximately 10, 40 and 100 years, respectively. Classification functions derived from discriminant analysis and based on nine input variables (well depth, electrical conductivity and the concentrations of the ions Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO₃, Cl and SO₄) allowed assignment of 71% of the sites to the correct of four age categories (mean residence time 10 years or less, 11–40 years, 41–100 years, or more than 100 years). The discriminant analysis classification functions were more effective than regression methods for estimating groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well depth, and can thus be used to predict the groundwater age category for any monitoring site in New Zealand.     

European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.     

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.     

Fitness spaces and their potential for visualizing change in the physical landscape

The use of the metaphors of general fitness and N-K spaces can assist in the understanding of the development of the physical landscape. Different modes of change can be viewed as different types of movement in, and distortions of, these phase spaces. Visualized in this manner landscape change can be viewed as both channelized, constrained and random.     

Turbulent flow structure in a gravel-bed river: Markov chain analysis of the fluctuating velocity profile

Three electromagnetic current meter probes were deployed in a Canadian gravel-bed river to obtain simultaneous records at 10 Hz of streamwise (u) and vertical (v) velocity components at three heights above the bed. By looking at the positive and negative signs of the instantaneous fluctuations from the time-average values of each velocity component at each height, the fluctuating velocity profile of u or v can be treated as a Markov chain with eight states and its statistical properties can be tested against null hypotheses based on the absence of spatial structure. We report results of this novel approach. The most common states of the u profile were those with either higher-than-average or lower-than-average velocities at all heights; these ‘high speed’ and ‘low speed’ states persisted for up to 3 s. The most common v profiles were all-upwards or all-downwards, but these persisted for shorter times than the high speed and low speed u profiles. Analysis of transition probabilities shows statistically significant tendencies for acceleration from the low speed u profile, and change from all-upwards to all-downwards v profile, to take place progressively from the uppermost probe downwards, in a sweep-like way. Deceleration from the high speed to low speed u profile and change from all-downwards to all-upwards v profile (burst-like behaviour) do not show such clear patterns. The results are interpreted in terms of the advection of inverted wedges of relatively high-momentum fluid, followed by more chaotic structures. A separate set of flow visualization experiments over a mixed gravel bed in a flume supports the presence of advected wedge structures, the decelerating part of the sequence corresponding to irregular ejections of near-bed fluid.     

Errors in measuring the percentage dry weight change of stone tablets

Portland Stone and Monks Park limestone tablets were used to assess weathering loss over a two-year study. Procedures involved in preparing tablets for exposure, attaching them to the exposure frame and reweighing might have influenced weight changes measured. The impact of each stage in the above procedures was tested to assess how much weight loss was generated and how significant the loss was comparing the two stone types and the final loss sustained upon weathering. Although all the procedures seem to produce a statistically insignificant amount of weight loss, the two stone types do respond differently to the procedures. This suggests that stone properties may be important in determining the accuracy with which tablets can be used to assess spatial patterns of weathering.     

Paleomagnetism of the triassic chugwater redbeds revisited (Wyoming, U.S.A.)

Paleomagnetic results from 107 samples of the Chugwater Group near Lander, Wyoming, show a regular progression in pole positions from bottom to top of the sequence. This pole position trend of about 25° matches very well the North American apparent polar wander path between Early Permian and Early Triassic. It could be argued that this “agreement” results in a conflict between the apparent magnetic age (Permian) and the Early to Late Triassic age generally assigned to the Chugwater Group. However, similar progressions of paleomagnetic pole positions have been reported for the Early Triassic Moenkopi Formation in Colorado; thus it appears that long-term variations and swings characterized the geomagnetic field at that time. With detailed paleomagnetic sampling, these features can be utilized for stratigraphic correlation in addition to magnetic-reversal stratigraphy. This will eliminate, to some degree, part of the non-uniqueness inherently present in correlations based on reversal stratigraphy only.