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61.
62.
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Detlef P. van Vuuren Keywan Riahi Richard Moss Jae Edmonds Allison Thomson Nebojsa Nakicenovic Tom Kram Frans Berkhout Rob Swart Anthony Janetos Steven K. Rose Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):21-35
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities. 相似文献
63.
Flexural subsidence by 29 Ma on the NE edge of Tibet from the magnetostratigraphy of Linxia Basin, China 总被引:43,自引:0,他引:43
Xiaomin Fang Carmala Garzione Rob Van der Voo Jijun Li Majie Fan 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2003,210(3-4):545-560
This study provides a detailed magnetostratigraphic record of subsidence in the Linxia Basin, documenting a 27 Myr long sedimentary record from the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Deposition in the Linxia Basin began at 29 Ma and continued nearly uninterruptedly until 1.7 Ma. Increasing rates of subsidence between 29 and 6 Ma in the Linxia Basin suggest deposition in the foredeep portion of a flexural basin and constrain the timing of shortening in the northeastern margin of the plateau to Late Oligocene–Late Miocene time. By Late Miocene–Early Pliocene time, a decrease in subsidence rates in the Linxia Basin associated with thrust faulting and a 10° clockwise rotation in the basin indicates that the deformation front of the Tibetan plateau had propagated into the currently deforming region northeast of the plateau. 相似文献
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Vertical hydraulic gradient is commonly measured in rivers, lakes, and streams for studies of groundwater–surface water interaction. While a number of methods with subtle differences have been applied, these methods can generally be separated into two categories; measuring surface water elevation and pressure in the subsurface separately or making direct measurements of the head difference with a manometer. Making separate head measurements allows for the use of electronic pressure sensors, providing large datasets that are particularly useful when the vertical hydraulic gradient fluctuates over time. On the other hand, using a manometer-based method provides an easier and more rapid measurement with a simpler computation to calculate the vertical hydraulic gradient. In this study, we evaluated a wet/wet differential pressure sensor for use in measuring vertical hydraulic gradient. This approach combines the advantage of high-temporal frequency measurements obtained with instrumented piezometers with the simplicity and reduced potential for human-induced error obtained with a manometer board method. Our results showed that the wet/wet differential pressure sensor provided results comparable to more traditional methods, making it an acceptable method for future use. 相似文献
67.
Two Early Cenozoic rifts in Southeast Asia (beneath the Pattani and Malay basins) experienced only limited upper-crustal extension (β≤1.5); yet very thick post-rift sequences are present, with 6–12 km of Late Cenozoic terrestrial and shallow-marine sediment derived from adjacent sources. Conventional post-rift backstripping requires depth-dependent lithospheric thinning by β=2–4 to explain these tremendous thicknesses. We assess an alternative explanation for this post-rift subsidence, involving lower-crustal flow from beneath these basins in response to lateral pressure-gradients induced by the sediment loads and the negative loads arising from the erosion of their sediment sources. We calculate that increased rates of erosion in western Thailand in the Early Miocene placed the crust in a non-steady thermal state, such that the depth (and thus, the pressure) at the base of the brittle upper crust subsequently varied over time. Following such a perturbation, thermal and mass-flux steady-state conditions took millions of years to re-establish. In the meantime, the lateral pressure-gradient caused net outflow of lower crust, thinning the crust beneath the depocentre by several kilometres (mimicking the isostatic effect of greater crustal extension having occurred beforehand) and thickening it beneath the sediment source region. The local combination of hot crust and high rates of surface processes, causing lower-crustal flow to be particularly vigorous and thus making its effects more readily identifiable, means that the Pattani and Malay basins represent a set of conditions different from basins in many other regions. However, lower-crustal flow induced by surface processes will also occur to some extent, but less recognisably, in many other continental crustal provinces, but its effects may be mistaken for those of other processes, such as larger-magnitude stretching and/or depth-dependent stretching. 相似文献
68.
Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Jochen Schmidt Iain Matcham Stefan Reese Andrew King Rob Bell Roddy Henderson Graeme Smart Jim Cousins Warwick Smith Dave Heron 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1169-1192
This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand. 相似文献
69.
An integrated explanation is proposed for the Late Cenozoic crustal deformation in Yunnan, SW China, using sedimentary and geomorphological evidence from the Yangtze and Red River systems. The observed fluvial incision indicates up to ~ 15 km of crustal thickening, associated with ~ 3 km of uplift, apparently triggered at ~ 8 Ma by monsoon-induced erosion drawing mobile lower crust from beneath Tibet to the northwest. The mobile lower-crustal layer beneath Yunnan was initially very thin, but a positive feedback loop developed, whereby each incremental influx of lower-crust widened and heated this layer, facilitating the next increment. At ~ 5 Ma, the shear tractions exerted on the brittle upper-crust by this flowing lower crust became sufficient to reactivate pre-existing lines of weakness, dragging blocks of the brittle layer southward and creating the region′s modern active fault systems. This region thus provides a dramatic example of crustal deformation induced by Late Cenozoic climate change, notwithstanding its location adjoining the India–Eurasia plate boundary. 相似文献
70.
We have recently put forward a ‘unified’ semi-empirical model for the coupling between accretion and jet production in galactic
black hole X-ray binaries. In this paper, we summarise this model and briefly discuss relevant considerations that have arisen
since its publication. 相似文献