On the streaming motions of haloes and galaxies

Little is known about the statistics of gravitationally lensed quasars at large (7–30 arcsec) image separations, which probe masses on the scale of galaxy clusters. We have carried out a survey for gravitationally lensed objects, among sources in the FIRST 20-cm radio survey that have unresolved optical counterparts in the digitizations of the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey. From the statistics of ongoing surveys that search for quasars among FIRST sources, we estimate that there are about 9100 quasars in this source sample, making this one of the largest lensing surveys to date. Using broad-band imaging, we have isolated all objects with double radio components separated by 5–30 arcsec that have unresolved optical counterparts with similar BVI colours. Our criteria for similar colours conservatively allow for observational error and for colour variations due to time delays between lensed images. Spectroscopy of these candidates shows that none of the pairs are lensed quasars. This sets an upper limit (95 per cent confidence) on the lensing fraction in this survey of 3.3×10⁻⁴, assuming 9100 quasars. Although the source redshift distribution is poorly known, a rough calculation of the expected lensing frequency and the detection efficiencies and biases suggests that simple theoretical expectations are of the same order of magnitude as our observational upper limit. Our procedure is novel in that our exhaustive search for lensed objects does not require prior identification of the quasars in the sample as such. Characterization of the FIRST-selected quasar population will enable use of our result to constrain quantitatively the mass properties of clusters.     

Secondary instability as a possible mechanism for clear-air turbulence: a case study

Many theories and mechanisms have been proposed to explain the phenomenon of clear-air turbulence (CAT), and some of them have been successful in predicting light, moderate and, in some cases, severe turbulence. It is only recently that skill in the forecasting of the severe form of CAT, which could lead to injuries to passengers and damage to aircraft, has improved. Recent observations and simulations suggest that some severe to extreme turbulence could be caused by horizontal vortex tubes resulting from secondary instabilities of regions of high shear in the atmosphere. We have conducted direct numerical simulations to understand the scale relationship between primary structures (larger-scale structures related to one of the causes mentioned above) and secondary structures (smaller-sized, shear structures of the size of aircraft). From shear layer simulations, we find that the ratio of sizes of primary and secondary vortices is of the right order to generate aircraft-scale vortex tubes from typical atmospheric shear layers. We have also conducted simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric model, to understand possible causes of turbulence experienced by a flight off the west coast of India. Our simulations show the occurrence of primary flow structures related to synoptic conditions around the time of the incident. The evidence presented for this mechanism also has implications for possible methods of detection and avoidance of severe CAT.     

On the importance of baseline setting in carbon offsets markets

Incorporating carbon offsets in the design of cap-and-trade programs remains a controversial issue because of its potential unintended impacts on emissions. At the heart of this discussion is the issue of crediting of emissions reductions. Projects can be correctly, over- or under-credited for their actual emissions reductions. We develop a unified framework that considers the supply of offsets within a cap-and-trade program that allows us to compare the relative impact of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions on overall emissions under different levels of baseline stringency and carbon prices. In the context of a national carbon pricing scheme that includes offsets, we find that the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets can be fully balanced out by under-credited emissions reductions without sacrificing a significant portion of the overall supply of offsets, provided emissions baselines are stringent enough. In the presence of high predicted business-as-usual (BAU) emissions uncertainty or low carbon prices, to maintain the environmental integrity of the program, baselines need to be set at stringent levels, in some cases below 50 percent of predicted BAU emissions. As predicted BAU emissions uncertainty declines or as the carbon market achieves higher equilibrium prices, however, less stringent baselines can balance out the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions. These results imply that to maintain environmental integrity of offsets programs, baseline stringency should be tailored to project characteristics and market conditions that influence the proportion of over-credited offsets to under-credited emissions reductions.     

Reconstructing galaxy fundamental distributions and scaling relations from photometric redshift surveys. Applications to the SDSS early-type sample

Noisy distance estimates associated with photometric rather than spectroscopic redshifts lead to a biased estimate of the luminosity distribution, and produce a correlated misestimate of the sizes. We consider a sample of early-type galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 for which both spectroscopic and photometric information is available, and apply the generalization of the V _max method to correct for these biases. We show that our technique recovers the true redshift, magnitude and size distributions, as well as the true size–luminosity relation. We find that using only 10 per cent of the spectroscopic information randomly spaced in our catalogue is sufficient for the reconstructions to be accurate within  ∼3 per cent  , when the photometric redshift error is  δ z ≃ 0.038  . We then address the problem of extending our method to deep redshift catalogues, where only photometric information is available. In addition to the specific applications outlined here, our technique impacts a broader range of studies, when at least one distance-dependent quantity is involved. It is particularly relevant for the next generation of surveys, some of which will only have photometric information.     

Evolution of Ganges–Brahmaputra western delta plain: Clues from sedimentology and carbon isotopes

Sedimentology, carbon isotope and sequence stratigraphic analysis of subsurface sediments from western part of Ganges–Brahmaputra (GB) delta plain shows that a Late Quaternary marine clay and fluvial channel-overbank sediments of MIS 5 and 3 highstands are traceable below the Holocene strata. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea-level lowering of >100 m produced a regional unconformity (type 1), represented by palaeosols and incised valley. C4 vegetation expanded on exposed lowstand surface in an ambient dry glacial climate. At 9 ka transgression inundated the lowstand surface pushing the coastline and mangrove front 100 km inland. Simultaneous intensification of monsoon and very high sediment discharge (4–8 times than modern) caused a rapid aggradation of both floodplain and estuarine valley fill deposits between 8 and 7 ka. The Hoogli River remaining along its present drainage possibly acted as the main conduit for transgression and sediment discharge that was subsequently abandoned. C3 vegetation dominated the delta plain during this time. From 7 ka onward progradation of delta plain started and continued till recent. This period experienced a mixed C3–C4 vegetation with localized mangroves in the mid-Holocene to dominant return of C4 vegetation in the late Holocene period. The study indicates that while the initiation of western part of GB delta occurred at least 1 ka earlier than the global mean delta formation age, the progradation started at 7 ka, at least 2 ka earlier than thought before. The terrestrial vegetation change was modulated by changes in depositional environment, specific ecological niches and climate rather than pCO₂.     

In-situ pore pressure variations in Koyna-Warna — A promising key to understand triggered earthquakes

The filling of the Koyna reservoir in western India and the associated triggered earthquakes have been well documented. Several studies have suggested that earthquakes are triggered on pre-existing faults in the region due to changes in pore pressure caused by pore pressure diffusion. To study in-situ pore pressure variations twenty-one borewells were drilled in the Koyna-Warna region under an Indo-German research program during 1995–1998. In most of these wells tidal signals are observed in well level variations indicating sensitivity to small strain changes in hydraulically connected, confined aquifers. Those signals, hence, are suitable to reflect variations in the stress field of local rock formations. More than a decade of well level monitoring has shown four types of earthquake related changes. The pre- and post-earthquake changes are mostly interpretative in nature and difficult to substantiate. The co-seismic and transient changes which are observed for local and large teleseismic events are well established. Wells connected to unconfined aquifers also showed changes related to seismicity in case of large magnitude earthquakes at closer distances. Some anomalous water level fluctuations are seen which are not associated with local or teleseismic earthquakes. These changes are coherent in nature and reflect aseismic regional volume strain.