Geochemical and Isotopic Evolution of Loihi Volcano, Hawaii

The Publishers wish to apologise for the incorrect representationof figure 10 which accompanied this paper. The correct figureis reproduced below.     

The Role of Mid-Latitude Pacific Cyclones in the Winter Precipitation of California*

The characteristics of the mid-latitude Pacific cyclones that produce precipitation over California are investigated statistically to determine their role in governing precipitation receipt. From all cyclones occurring over the Pacific Ocean from December through March and between 1965–1990 inclusive, we identify a subset of cyclones likely to produce precipitation over California. The characteristics analyzed are track, frequency, duration, speed, central pressure, and proximity. These are related to monthly precipitation for the entire period and are also used to explain the difference in precipitation received during the earlier (wet) and latter (dry) halves of the 1980s. Results indicate that the winter cyclones responsible for precipitation over California originate in the southeast quadrant of the region influenced by the Aleutian Low and decay south of the Gulf of Alaska. The extent of cyclonic activity over the east Pacific Ocean near California diminished during the dry period. There were fewer cyclones, they were significantly weaker, and they traveled along a more meridional track during the dry period.     

Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.     

The solar flares of February 1986 and the ensuing intense geomagnetic storm

A very intense geomagnetic storm, the largest observed in 26 years, was observed in early February 1986 having just been preceded by a series of six solar flares during the period 3–7 February. The storm and its antecedent flares are currently a subject of great interest because of the unusually large magnitude of the various geomagnetic effects that obtained. The fact that the flares were moderate to large in soft X-ray intensity, but much smaller than the largest that the Sun is capable of producing, coupled with the fact that these events occurred near the minimum of the current solar activity cycle, adds to the uniqueness of the overall episode.This paper describes the special circumstances surrounding these events and offers an interpretation of the cause and effect relationships through a numerical simulation of the dynamical evolutionary processes that may have occurred in interplanetary space.     

Triassic metasedimentary successions across the boundary between the southern Apennines and the Calabrian Arc (northern Calabria,Italy)

The boundary area between the Apenninic fold‐and‐thrust belt and the crystalline Calabrian Arc, located around Sangineto in northern Calabria, has been investigated. New geological mapping in the Sant'Agata area has been performed on the Triassic successions traditionally attributed to the metasedimentary San Donato Unit. This, coupled with a reappraisal of the stratigraphy and tectonics of coeval successions present more to the south in the Cetraro Unit, results in a new reconstruction of the Triassic evolution of all the metasedimentary successions found in the region. Four informal stratigraphic units have been distinguished in the S. Agata area. The lowest one (Unit A) consists of well‐bedded metalimestones and bioturbated marly limestones that correlate with Ladinian–Carnian carbonates in nearby areas. A second unit (Unit B), never recognized before, contains a complex alternation of dolomites, phyllites and some meta‐arenites containing several beds of Cavernoso facies, attributed to the Carnian. They grade upward to platform and platform‐margin dolomites of Norian–Rhaetian age (Unit C) that in turn are replaced upward and laterally by a fourth unit (Unit D) consisting of well‐bedded, dark dolomites and metalimestones with marly interlayers locally found as resedimented large blocks in slope conglomerates. Unit D correlates with Rhaetian–Liassic beds in nearby areas. Several pieces of evidence of post‐metamorphic contractional tectonics, with 140°N and 30°N trends, are found together with evidence of SW‐directed extension. The siliciclastic Carnian beds of Unit B are correlated with the phyllites of Cetraro, formerly believed to be Middle Triassic; moreover, it is suggested that in the Cetraro area Unit C is almost totally replaced by Unit D. This demonstrates that the former distinction between the two tectonic units in the whole area has to be discarded. We have made a general palaeoenvironmental reconstruction which progresses laterally, during Ladinian–Carnian times, from (i) a coastal, mixed siliciclastic–carbonate–evaporitic area at Cetraro to (ii) a transitional carbonate shelf where siliciclastic input was only episodic, and finally to (iii) a bioconstructed margin which was later replaced by a steepened margin created by tectonic instability. Starting from the Norian, subsidence shifted toward the former coastal area where an intraplatform, restricted basin developed. The proposed stratigraphy corresponds closely to the Alpujarride units of the Betic Cordillera, Spain. Moreover, it is shown that strong affinities also exist, in terms of the structural framework, with the metamorphic units of Tuscany and Liguria. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114000334

The Musgrave Province developed at the nexus of the North,West and South Australian cratons and its Mesoproterozoic evolution incorporates a 100 Ma period of ultra-high temperature(UHT) metamorphism from ca.1220 to ca.1120 Ma.This was accompanied by high-temperature A-type granitic magmatism over an 80 Ma period,sourced in part from mantle-derived components and emplaced as a series of pulsed events that also coincide with peaks in UHT metamorphism.The tectonic setting for this thermal event(the Musgrave Orogeny) is thought to have been intracontinental and the lithospheric architecture of the region is suggested to have had a major influence on the thermal evolution.We use a series of two dimensional,fully coupled thermo-mechanical-petrological numerical models to investigate the plausibility of initiating and prolonging UHT conditions under model setup conditions appropriate to the inferred tectonic setting and lithospheric architecture of the Musgrave Province.The results support the inferred tectonic framework for the Musgrave Orogeny,predicting periods of UHT metamorphism of up to 70 Ma,accompanied by thin crust and extensive magmatism derived from both crustal and mantle sources.The results also appear to be critically dependent upon the specific location of the Musgrave Province,constrained between thicker cratonic masses.     

Positioning fisheries in a changing world

Marine capture fisheries face major and complex challenges: habitat degradation, poor economic returns, social hardships from depleted stocks, illegal fishing, and climate change, among others. The key factors that prevent the transition to sustainable fisheries are information failures, transition costs, use and non-use conflicts and capacity constraints. Using the experiences of fisheries successes and failures it is argued only through better governance and institutional change that encompasses the public good of the oceans (biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, sustainability) and societal values (existence, aesthetic and amenity) will fisheries be made sustainable.     

Constrained Kriging: An Alternative to Predict Global Recoverable Resources

Natural Resources Research - In most NI-43-101 resource assessment reports the prediction of global in situ resources is performed by either inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging (OK) or...     

Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?

Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan et al., Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214, 2006; Zickfeld et al., Climatic Change 82(3–4):235–265, 2007, Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010; Kriegler et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046, 2009). Elicitations incorporate experts’ understanding of known flaws in climate models, thus potentially providing a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty than model-driven methods. The goal of standard elicitation procedures is to determine experts’ subjective probabilities for the values of key climate variables. These methods assume that experts’ knowledge can be captured by subjective probabilities—however, foundational work in decision theory has demonstrated this need not be the case when their information is ambiguous (Ellsberg, Q J Econ 75(4):643–669, 1961). We show that existing elicitation studies may qualitatively understate the extent of experts’ uncertainty about climate change. We designed a choice experiment that allows us to empirically determine whether experts’ knowledge about climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface warming that results from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration) can be captured by subjective probabilities. Our results show that, even for this much studied and well understood quantity, a non-negligible proportion of climate scientists violate the choice axioms that must be satisfied for subjective probabilities to adequately describe their beliefs. Moreover, the cause of their violation of the axioms is the ambiguity in their knowledge. We expect these results to hold to a greater extent for less understood climate variables, calling into question the veracity of previous elicitations for these quantities. Our experimental design provides an instrument for detecting ambiguity, a valuable new source of information when linking climate science and climate policy which can help policy makers select decision tools appropriate to our true state of knowledge.