Cyclone track prediction by a quasi-Lagrangian limited area model

Summary. ?Cyclone track predictions in the Indian seas (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) with a quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) have been attempted. QLM has a horizontal resolution of 40 km and 16 sigma levels in the vertical. It is integrated in a domain of about 4400 × 4400 km². A new initialization procedure to provide initial fields for running the model has been designed. The initialization procedure consists of updating the global model forecasts, used as first guess, provided by the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi. A new version of IMD’s operational optimum interpolation scheme has been created to suit the QLM grid structure. Lateral boundary conditions are computed from the extended forecasts of NCMRWF. The track forecasts in each case show a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the direction of movement within acceptable limits of forecast errors, which are comparable to some of the best models operated by advanced NWP centers of the world. Even the recurving storms are well predicted. Evolution of the vertical motion fields are also studied which reveal some interesting features, which are described in detail in the text. The composited vertical motion fields are projected against observed rainfall distribution, which show a good spatial correspondence. Received August 9, 2001; revised March 12, 2002; accepted June 17, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003     

Circulation characteristics over the Himalayas during winter season

Summary ?During winter season, atmospheric systems, which traverse from west to east interact with the Himalayan massif and produce widespread rainfall over North India. In this study, we made an endeavor to examine the mean circulation features and large-scale budgets of kinetic energy, heat and moisture over Himalayas and the adjoining domain for winter season. The time-mean circulation is bifurcated into stable mean and transient eddy parts and examined the mean component of the circulation. The uninitialized daily analyses of European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for five winter seasons (1986–90) comprising December, January and February (DJF) have been used for the purpose. We noticed certain zones of strong activity over Iran, Afghanistan, and West China regions during winter season. These are characterized by intense vertical motions, cyclonic vorticity and adiabatic generation of kinetic energy. The features noticed over these zones include strong horizontal convergence of heat and moisture. These zones are further characterized by massive adiabatic conversion of available potential energy to kinetic energy. These features are conducive for the growth of atmospheric systems, which traverse over the zones and produce precipitation subsequently. Received November 16, 2000; revised February 5, 2002     

注采试井双对数理论图版

注采试井分析以多井渗流力学理论为基础，求解注采井地下渗流的精确解，研究注水井与生产井之间的关系，用注采比、注采井距、注采污染系数比、注采窜流系数比等参数刻画注、采井间关系。在理论上进一步完善地下渗流力学理论，从单井的参数分析发展到井问关系分析，因此也从研究内容上补充了现代试井分析。在建立无穷大地层油水两相双重介质续流污染的注采无量纲模型基础上，对注采无量纲模型求精确解，将其数值反演求实空间解，制作出注采试井双对数理论图版。     

Mitigation of Flooding and Cyclone Hazard in Orissa, India

Storm surges generated by the strong tangential wind stressesand normal atmospheric pressure gradients at the sea surface due to tropical cyclones (TC'S)have been studied with the goal of detecting any significant and systematic changes due to climatechange. Cyclone and storm surge data for the 19th and 20th centuries for the Bay of Bengalcoast of the state of Orissa in India are available to varying degrees of quality and detail,the data being more scientific since the advent of the India Meteorological Department in 1875.Based on more precise data for the period 1971 to 2000, statistical projections have been madeon the probable intensities of tropical cyclones for various return periods. The super cyclone ofOctober 29, 1999 (SC1999) appears to have a return period of about 50 years. The cyclones of1831, 1885 and possibly the one in 1895 could have been super cyclones. During the 19th century,there were 72 flooding events associated with cyclones, whereas in the 20th century therewere only 56 events. There was no observational evidence to suggest that there was an increaseeither in the frequency or intensity of cyclones or storm surges on the coast of Orissa. However,the impact of cyclones and surges is on the increase due to increase of population and coastalinfrastructure.     

Geomagnetic activity control on VHF scintillations over an Indian low latitude station, Waltair (17.7‡N, 83.3‡E, 20‡N dip)

Using the data of amplitude scintillations recorded at 244 MHz from the geostationary satellite, FLEETSAT (73‡E) at a low latitude station, Waltair (17.7‡N, 83.3‡E, 20‡N dip), during the increasing sunspot activity period of 1997–2000, the effect of the geomagnetic storms on the occurrence of ionospheric scintillations has been studied. A total of 60 SC storms studied during this period, following the Aarons’ criterion, reveals that the local time of onset of the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms play an important role in the generation or inhibition of the ionospheric irregularities. Out of the 60 storms studied, nearly 60 to 70% satisfied the categories I, II and III of Aarons’ criteria. However, in the remaining 30 to 40% of the cases, no consistent results were observed. Thus, there is a necessity for further investigation of the effect of geomagnetic storms on ionospheric irregularities, particularly with reference to the altitude variations of the F-layer (h’F) relating to the changes in the local electric fields.     

Groundwater quality in a coastal area: a case study from Andhra Pradesh, India

Over-exploitation of groundwater results in decline of water levels, leading to intrusion of salt water along the coastal region, which is a natural phenomenon. A groundwater quality survey has been carried out to assess such phenomena along the coast of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India. Brackish groundwaters are observed in most of the wells. The rest of the wells show a fresh water environment. The factors responsible for the brackish groundwater quality with respect to the influence of seawater are assessed, using the standard ionic ratios, such as Ca²⁺:Mg²⁺, TA:TH and Cl⁻:HCO⁻ ₃. Results suggest that the brackish nature in most of the groundwaters is not due to the seawater influence, but is caused by the hydrogeochemical process. Some influence of seawater on the groundwater quality is observed along the rock fractures. The combined effect of seawater and urban wastewaters is due to the inferior quality of groundwater in a few wells, where they are at topographic lows close to the coast.     

Numerical Study of the Circulation and Sediment Transport in the Mahanadi Estuary

The Mahanadi River is one of the largest river systems in the east coast of Indiaand the estuary drains and communicates with the Bay of Bengal. The seasonallyvarying fresh water river discharge and the intrusion of salt water from the baydepend on the flow associated with the semi-diurnal component of the astronomicaltide (dominated by M₂ component). A numerical model has been developed tosimulate and study the salinity structure, velocity profile, flow and circulation patternand have been compared with the observed data. A reasonably good agreement isnoticed between the model simulations and the observations. The model result hasbeen utilised to compute sediment load transport to the estuary channel over a tidalcycle as well as on a monthly time scale. The sediment load transport owing to monthlyclimatological rainfall is discussed and it is inferred that a dynamic equilibrium existson a long-term over good/bad monsoons.     

河北张北M6.2地震前怀来地震台的中短期异常

基于强震前主破裂潜在变化过程中产生的地壳形变异常及伴随地壳形变而产生的地下水化学前兆现象随时间变化显示出的动态异常，依据河北怀来地震台形变、地下流体观测资料，研究了1998年河北张北M6．2地震前地形变、地下流体异常特性及同步性，认为其有由短期向临震演化的不同阶段的群体演化特征。形变异常早于流体异常出现，临震异常集中，反映明显。断层气CO2、水汞体应变异常同时在震前2个月出现，显示出异常的集中性、同步性。