Space Weather: Physics,Effects and Predictability

The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun–Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.     

Studying the Deep Structure of Elbrus Volcano by Microseismic Sounding

This paper presents results from a study of the deep structure of the Elbrus edifice and adjacent areas using geophysical techniques. We confirmed the existence of a shallow magma chamber, derived a more accurate location of the chamber in the host rocks and its characteristic dimensions, and compared new results with known studies. More accurate estimates have been obtained for the temperature at the top of the magma chamber and new evidence is adduced concerning the deep structure of the fluid magmatic systems in the Elbrus volcanic area.     

Measurement of stress effects (scope for growth) and contaminant levels in mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from the Irish Sea

The objective of this research was to quantify the impact of pollution along the coastlines of the Irish Sea. Pollution assessment was based on the combined measurement of scope for growth (SFG), and chemical contaminants in the tissues of mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from 38 coastal sites around the Irish Sea during June-July in 1996 and 1997. On the UK mainland coast, the SFG showed a general trend with a significant decline in water quality in the Liverpool and Morecambe Bay region. High water quality was recorded along the west coast of Wales, as well as southwest England and northwest Scotland (clean reference sites outside the Irish Sea). Along the coast of Ireland there was a similar trend with reduced SFG within the Irish Sea region. SFG was generally low north of Duncannon and then improved north of Belfast. The poor water quality on both sides of the Irish Sea is consistent with the prevailing hydrodynamics and the spatial distribution of contaminants associated with urban/ industrial development. The decline in SFG of mussels on both sides of the Irish Sea was associated with a general increase in contaminant levels in the mussels. Certain contaminants, including PAHs, TBT, sigmaDDT, Dieldrin, gamma-HCH, PCBs, and a few of the metals (Cd, Se, Ag, Pb), showed elevated concentrations. Many of these contaminants were particularly elevated in the coastal margins of Liverpool Bay, Morecambe Bay and Dublin Bay. A quantitative toxicological interpretation (QTI) of the combined tissue residue chemistry and SFG measurements indicated that at the majority of coastal sites, c. 50 to > 80% of the observed decline in SFG was due to PAHs as a result of fossil fuel combustion and oil spills. TBT levels were highest at major ports and harbours, but these concentrations only made a minor contribution to the overall reduction in SFG. At no sites were individual metals accumulated to concentrations that could cause a significant effect on SFG. The study identified many sites where the observed reduction in SFG was far greater than predicted from the limited number of chemical contaminants analysed, thus indicating the presence of additional 'unknown toxicants'. Sewage (containing domestic, agricultural and industrial components) appears to be an important contributor to reduced SFG and linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) and As may provide suitable 'sewage markers'. There was a highly significant positive correlation between SFG and As (P < 0.001). This relationship may be due to reduced As uptake by algal food material and mussels at sites with elevated P04 concentrations (e.g. at sites with sewage inputs). Phosphate is a known competitive inhibitor of As accumulation, at least in algae. The results highlight that further research is required on 'sewage markers' in mussels. The SFG approach therefore provides a rapid, cost-effective and quantitative measure of pollution impact, as well as a means of identifying the causes through a QTI of tissue contaminants levels. It also serves to identify the presence of unidentified toxicants and areas that require further study.     

Acid mine drainage at Cerro Rico de Potosí I: unabated high-strength discharges reflect a five century legacy of mining

Intensive mining and processing of Ag, Sn, Pb and Zn ores have occurred in various locations within and around the city of Potosí, Bolivia since 1545. Surface and subsurface waters, stream sediments and soils are contaminated with various ecotoxic metals in the headwaters of the economically vital, yet highly impacted, upper Rio Pilcomayo watershed. Previous studies have documented downstream trace metal contamination, however, not addressed specific sources. The AMD discharges identified in this study help link downstream pollution to primary origins. The majority of AMD would be considered high-strength due to metal concentrations and acidity orders of magnitude greater than typical AMD. Discharges from both operating and abandoned portals as well as tailings-related deposits displayed a high degree of heterogeneity with total metal concentrations ranging from 0.11 to 7480, <0.022 to 889, <0.0006 to 65.3, <0.001 to 310, 0.12 to 72,100, 0.3 to 402, <0.012 to 34.8, and 0.24 to 19,600 mg/L of Al, As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn, respectively. Net acidity and pH ranged from −10 to 246,000 mg/L as CaCO₃ equivalent and 0.90–6.94 standard units, respectively. Data were gathered during two sampling events centered around the most extreme periods of the dry and wet seasons of one water-year. Loadings to local streams were marginally greater for most metals in the wet season. If observed loadings are historically representative, Cerro Rico AMD has contributed thousands of tonnes of ecotoxic metals to the upper Rio Pilcomayo over the last five centuries. Metal and hydrogen ion concentrations in the majority of AMD sampled were several orders of magnitude above discharge limits set by the Bolivian government, yet no action has historically or contemporarily been taken.     

Anthropogenic relief changes in a long-lasting lignite mining area (‘Ville’, Germany) derived from historic maps and digital elevation models

Humans constitute one of the main geomorphological agents in modern times. As an example, post-mining regions represent a typical landscape of the Anthropocene. Strong relief modifications are particularly obvious with open pit mining. However, many existing mining areas are lacking detailed pre-mining information for the quantification of anthropogenic relief changes, which is a considerable challenge in regions with historic mining activities. Here, the Ville (Rhenish lignite district, Germany) is used to quantify surface mining induced relief changes in one of the oldest and currently largest lignite districts in Europe. Historical maps from first geodetic mapping in 1893 enabled construction of a historic digital elevation model to quantify the relief changes in comparison to elevation data from 2000 and 2015. The vertical accuracy of the historic data is remarkably high, with relief differences < 2 m in areas not affected by mining. In total, 49.2% of the investigated area (184 km²) shows a relief deficit and 14.5% has positive relief differences. Absolute changes account for more than 80 m heightening (dumpsites of overburden) and lowering of the natural relief (pits). Besides these altitudinal changes, overall steeper slopes are significant for the new topography, but levelling exists likewise. The spatial variabilities are discussed in the context of the regional geology and the mining techniques. Undoubtedly, such large-scale anthropogenic relief changes persist for a very long time and will last as a human legacy far into the future. Only the detailed reconstruction of the pre-mining relief offers the ability to clarify the dimension of humans as geomorphological agents and to understand landscape perception. Due to the fact that the impact of open pit mining has such a large vertical and horizontal extension, their consideration as part of anthropogeomorphology can significantly contribute to support future Critical Zone research in the Anthropocene.     

Thermodynamic controls on element partitioning between titanomagnetite and andesitic–dacitic silicate melts

Titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of Mg, Mn, Al, Ti, Sc, V, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Zr, Nb, Mo, Hf and Ta was investigated experimentally as a function of oxygen fugacity (fO₂) and temperature (T) in an andesitic–dacitic bulk-chemical compositional range. In these bulk systems, at constant T, there are strong increases in the titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of the divalent cations (Mg²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺) and Cu²⁺/Cu⁺ with increasing fO₂ between 0.2 and 3.7 log units above the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer. This is attributed to a coupling between magnetite crystallisation and melt composition. Although melt structure has been invoked to explain the patterns of mineral–melt partitioning of divalent cations, a more rigorous justification of magnetite–melt partitioning can be derived from thermodynamic principles, which accounts for much of the supposed influence ascribed to melt structure. The presence of magnetite-rich spinel in equilibrium with melt over a range of fO₂ implies a reciprocal relationship between a(Fe²⁺O) and a(Fe³⁺O_1.5) in the melt. We show that this relationship accounts for the observed dependence of titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations with fO₂ in magnetite-rich spinel. As a result of this, titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations is indirectly sensitive to changes in fO₂ in silicic, but less so in mafic bulk systems.     

A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part II: Mesoscale Modelling

The importance of soil moisture inputs and improved model physics in the prediction of the daytime boundary-layer structure during the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997 (SGP97) is investigated using the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model MM5. This is Part II of a two-part study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed boundary-layer structure. Part I focuses on observations and utilizes a simple model while Part II uses observations and MM5 modelling. Soil moisture inputs tested include a lookup table based on soil type and season, output from an offline land-surface model (LSM) forced by atmospheric observations, and high-resolution ( 800 m) airborne microwave remotely sensed data. Model physics improvements are investigated by comparing an LSM directly coupled with the MM5 to a simpler force-restore method at the surface. The scale of land surface heterogeneities is compared to the scale of their effects on boundary-layer structure.The use of more detailed soil moisture fields allowed the MM5 to better represent the large-scale (hundreds of km) and small-scale (tens of km) horizontal gradients in surface-layer weather and, to a lesser degree, the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, which was evaluated against observations measured by differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The benefits of coupling an LSM to the MM5 were not readily evident in this summertime case, with the model having particular difficulty simulating the timing of maximum surface fluxes while underestimating the depth of the mixed layer.     

Estimating coseismic deformations from near source strong motion records: methods and case studies

Digital strong-motion accelerographs have opened up the possibility of extracting ground motion characteristics at much lower frequencies than was offered by analogue instruments. High-quality digital data obtained close to the faults have tempted several efforts to retrieve permanent ground displacements after an earthquake. Such attempts have been partly successful, and somewhat subjective, the main reason being the presence of baseline offsets in the accelerometric data. We review existing methods for such applications, discuss their limitations and propose a more objective and improved scheme to make baseline adjustments and obtain permanent displacements. The proposed technique is applied to 26 digital recordings from the 29 May 2008 Ölfus Earthquake in South Iceland and 9 recordings from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake, and the permanent displacements obtained are compared with published results and GPS measurements from nearby stations. Our case studies show that the proposed technique, in addition to being simple and objective, is effective in making adjustments for baseline errors in accelerometric data.     

Wavelet Analysis of Solar Diameter Measurements Performed at Calern Observatory Astrolabe

Since 1975, a visual program of solar diameter measurement is pursuedat Calern Observatory (France). These observations allowed to put inevidence variations in solar data. Several studies were developed inorder to analyze the data using appropriate me thods (deconvolution ofthe observation window function and least square fits) (Moussaouiet al., 1999). We present in this work a time-frequency studyof the found harmonic terms. It is developed using the wavelettransform. The obtained results are presented and discussed.