Automatic GIS-based system for volcanic hazard assessment

This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es.     

Paleohydrological investigation of Infernão Lake, Moji-Guaçcu River watershed, São Paulo, Brazil

A 450 cm sediment core spanning the last 3,500 years was collected from 4.6 m of water in Lake Infernão, located in the floodplain of the Moji-Guaçu River in SE Brazil, to reconstruct the wetland system (river and lake) paleohydrology. A multidisciplinary approach using isotopic (¹³C and ¹⁵N), chemical (C/N ratio and lignin derived phenols) and physical analyses (% water content and density) were used in this study. A coarse sand unit in the lower part of the core (450–417 cm) corresponds to the paleoriver. The rest of the sediment core (dark clay) shows a gradual change from a fluvial to a lacustrine environment. ¹⁴C dates from the lower part of the core (417–200 cm), demonstrate an inversion and narrow span in age (3,000–3,500 yrs B.P.) corresponding to a period of rapid fluvial sedimentation and reworking. The lake seems to have been well established only after 3,000 yrs B.P. The change from a fluvial to a lacustrine environment is inferred from the isotopic and chemical data. Sediment of the fluvial phase is characterized by higher ¹³C values, lower C and N content and a lignin content representative of woody-tissues. Sediment of the lacustrine phase show a gradual decrease in ¹³C values toward the top of the core reflecting the influence of organic carbon derived by phytoplankton and aquatic macrophytes (C₃ plants). The trend to higher C and N content and low C/N ratios also support this interpretation. The lower lignin content indicates increase contributions of non-vascular plants (phytoplankton). Similarly, the slight increase of non-woody tissues (higher C/V ratios) and the predominance of angiosperm plants (high S/V ratios) as organic matter source indicate an increase contribution of aquatic plants during the lacustrine phase. Our data presented here in addition to the geomorphological information and the available paleoclimatic scenario of pollen-inferred analyses for aquatic systems from the southeastern Brazil point to a climatic origin for this fluvial-lacustrine transition at about 3,000 yrs B.P. and to a climatic evolution leading to the present conditions and to a consequently gradual isolation of Lake Infernão from the influence of the Moji-Guaçu River.     

The corrugation of the galactic layer

The 21-cm line intensities in a (Z, R) distribution is studied at the locus of tangential points of the inner parts of the Galaxy using both Northern and Southern data. A corrugation effect is observed in the galactic neutral hydrogen layer with an average wave length of 2 kpc and a wave amplitude of 70 pc. The patterns obtained for the I and the IV quadrant indicate that the inner and the outer parts of the spiral arms are located, respectively, below and above the galactic plane. Also, with high angular resolution the corrugation pattern suggests the existence of ‘faults’ in a geological sense in the inter arm zones. Optical studies of spatial distribution of early objects show good agreement with the neutral hydrogen results, indicating that the observed corrugation pattern is an indication of real distribution of matter in the galactic layer, and not of a kinematical effect.     

Influence of rainfall spatial variability on flood prediction

This paper deals with the sensitivity of distributed hydrological models to different patterns that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall: spatially averaged rainfall or rainfall field. The rainfall data come from a dense network of recording rain gauges that cover approximately 2000 km² around Mexico City. The reference rain sample accounts for the 50 most significant events, whose mean duration is about 10 h and maximal point depth 170 mm. Three models were tested using different runoff production models: storm-runoff coefficient, complete or partial interception. These models were then applied to four fictitious homogeneous basins, whose sizes range from 20 to 1500 km². For each test, the sensitivity of the model is expressed as the relative differences between the empirical distribution of the peak flows (and runoff volumes), calculated according to the two patterns of rainfall input: uniform or non-uniform. Differences in flows range from 10 to 80%, depending on the type of runoff production model used, the size of the basin and the return period of the event. The differences are generally moderate for extreme events. In the local context, this means that uniform design rainfall combining point rainfall distribution and the probabilistic concept of the areal reduction factor could be sufficient to estimate major flood probability. Differences are more significant for more frequent events. This can generate problems in calibrating the hydrological model when spatial rainfall localization is not taken into account: a bias in the estimation of parameters makes their physical interpretation difficult and leads to overestimation of extreme flows.     

On the nature of mantle heterogeneities and discontinuities: evidence from a very dense wide-angle shot record

A seismic survey with a receiver spacing of 50 m provided one of the most densely sampled wide-angle seismic reflection images of the lithosphere. This unique data set, recorded by an 18-km-long spread, reveals that at wide-angles the shallow subcrustal mantle features high amplitude reflectivity which contrasts with a lack of reflectivity at latter travel times. This change in the seismic signature is located at approximately 120–150 km depth, which correlates with the depth estimates of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) of previous DSS studies. This seismic signature can be simulated by two-layer mantle model. Both layers with similar average velocities differ in their degree of heterogeneity. The shallow heterogeneous layer and the deeper and more homogeneous one correlate with the lithosphere and the asthenosphere, respectively. Studies involving surface outcrops of ultramafic massifs and mantle xenoliths infer that the upper mantle is a heterogeneous mixture of ultramafic rocks (lherzolites, harzburgites, pyroxenites, peridotites, dunites, and small amounts of eclogites). Laboratory measurements of physical properties of these mantle rocks indicate that compositional variations alone can account for the wide-angle reflectivity. A temperature increase would homogenize the mixture, decreasing the seismic reflection properties due to melting processes. It is proposed that this would take place below 120–150 km (1200 °C, the LAB).     

Plate tectonics and volcanism in the gibraltar arc

Late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanism of southeastern Spain can be fitted in a platetectonics model, taking into account the post-Paleozoic evolution of the stable and semimobile Iberian areas and the new orogenic belts bordering the Mediterranean between Africa and the Iberian Peninsula.The occurrence and distribution of calc-alkaline and potassic volcanism suggest an oceanic crust sinking downwards from the Iberian plate. This active margin is causally related to the convergence and collision of Iberia and Africa during Late Cretaceous—Early Miocene time span.A pre-collision distensive phase is inferred from the stratigraphie and tectonic record between the Triassic and Late Cretaceous, while since the Late Miocene another distensive phase is related to the actualistic features.     

Geochemistry of an oceanite-ankaramite-basalt suite from East Island,Crozet Archipelago

The petrology and geochemistry of East Island have been investigated for the first time. The island is a deeply dissected remnant of a Pleistocene shield volcano, one of several emerging from an oceanic rise forming part of the southwest branch of the Indian Ocean ridge system. The lavas form a flat-lying sequence of oceanites, ankaramites, olivine basalts and feldsparphyric basalts, the ankaramites containing 1 cm phenocrysts of diopsidic clinopyroxene. X-Ray fluorescence analyses were made of 43 lavas for the major elements plus Cr, Ni, Rb, Sr, Ba, Pb, and Th and the minerals were analysed by electron microprobe. The elements Mg, Cr, and Ni are strongly concentrated in spinel, olivine and clinopyroxene phases and in the ankaramites and oceanite lavas with maximum concentrations of 18% MgO, 1,000 ppm Cr, 380 ppm Ni, while Al, Ti, K, Rb, Ba, Th, Na, P, Sr concentrate in the groundmass and in the feldspathic and aphyric basalts. The elements Si, Ca, Fe and Mn remain virtually constant throughout the series.Correlations of +0.95 or better exist between the concentrations of elements within the two groups given above, and negative correlations between elements in different groups. The fractionation trends are unique with respect to the constant Al/Ti ratio and K/Sr ratio, but all trends may be reproduced by calculating the effect of subtraction of suitable amounts of chromite, olivine and low Ti clinopyroxene from an alkaline olivine basalt parent. Either fractionation has taken place involving these three phases under low pressure conditions or it is the result of different degrees of partial melting of mantle material.A complex magnesian chrome spinel is found in the ankaramites and is often jacketed by a chromian titanomagnetite. A complete series of intermediate compositions appears to exist between the two end members.