Statistical assessment of seismicity patterns in Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?

The variations of seismicity rate in Central Apenninesprior to the sequence started in September, 1997 (at00:33 UTC, M _L5.6) has been analysedby statistical methods, with the purpose of pointingup eventual periods of quiescence. The analysis wascarried out on the instrumental catalogue of theIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING), covering theperiod from January 1975 to March 1998. In apreliminary phase, the catalogue was declustered usingthe Reasenberg algorithm. After that, eventualmagnitude shifts due to variations in the modalitiesof observation have been individuated and corrected.The subsequent analysis, carried out making use of theZmap software package, has put in evidence thatthe sequence of September 1997 was preceded bya 2.5 year period characterised by absence of eventsof magnitude larger than 3.2, in an area approximately20 × 40 km wide, including the epicentre of themain shock. The statistical methodology shows thatonly 1/10³ of the space-time volumes analysed inthis study, exhibited quiescence of the same level.The study of seismicity rate change correlated toprevious main shocks in a larger area of CentralApennines shows that none of them were preceded by aseismic quiescence, specially close to the epicentreof the main shock, and lasting until the time ofoccurrence of the main shock as in the 1997 case.Actually, we found other patterns of precursoryquiescence with different time or space distribution.We conclude that precursory quiescence is a realfeature of Central Apennines seismicity, but it isdifficult to define a simple hypothesis, which appliesto the generality of cases and can be tested beforeimplementation in a system of earthquake riskmitigation.     

Observations of vertical ground accelerations exceeding gravity during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) earthquakes

We found extensive evidence that the vertical ground accelerations produced during the largest shock (M = 6.0) of the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence exceeded 1g in two areas close to the heavily-damaged villages of Annifo and Colle Croce. This evidence comes from the striking observation of thousands of freshly fractured and broken rocks and stones in these areas. Some of the broken stones lie isolated on soft detritic soil while others had been previously piled up, probably a long time agoto clear the fields for farming. The freshness of the cuts and fractures and the consistency of the observations for thousands of rocks and stones in these areas indicate that these rocks were thrown upwards during the earthquake, with breakage occurring at the time of impact. Ground motion calculations consistent with the static deformation inferred from GPS and interferometry data, show that the broken stones and rocks are found in the zone where the strongest shaking took place during the earthquake and that most of the shaking there was vertical.     

Secular changes,polarity epochs and tectonic movements as indicated by palaeomagnetic studies of Hungarian rock samples

Summary The paper contains an outline of the palaeomagnetic investigations in Hungary including some of their geophysical and geological applications. More than 500 samples of volcanic rocks were studied by usual palaeomagnetic techniques. The rocks investigated belong to three different geological periods — the Quaternary — upper Tertiary, the middle Miocene and the lower Cretaceous. The palaeomagnetic data obtained for the individual localities are summarized in the Appendix.Paper presented at the IAGA Symposium Madrid, September 1969.     

ON THE IMPROVEMENT IN PENETRATIO ACHIEVED BY USING EXTENDED MARINE SOURCE ARRAYS*

In dealing with the problem of large amplitude multiple reflections arising from a hard water-bottom, it has been found that the use of extended source array techniques resulted in a considerably better penetration than that obtained using either computer simulated long arrays or the conventional air-gun array systems. The purpose of this paper is to use the concept of the array directivity factor in discussing the reason for the improvement in penetration achieved by using extended marine source arrays. Examples are given showing that the low frequency power radiated within the so called “penetration window” can be increased by a factor of two by choosing the correct spacing of the point sources forming the extended array. It is concluded that to ensure that most of the low frequency energy is concentrated within the penetration window to achieve deep penetration, a source array with spacing comparable with the wavelength is required.     

Species Composition and Some Ecological Notes on Diatom Communities of a Lotic Environment in Tarhunãh,Libya Artenzusammensetzung und einige ökologische Notizen über Diatomeengesellschaften eines lotischen Biotops in Tarhunãh/Libyen

Libya occupies a large part of the Sahara Desert, and is a predominantly arid country with extremely scarce freshwaters. Despite aridity, a distinct higher rainfall zone exists along its mediterranean coastal belt. A lotic environment (perennial stream) in Ain-Scersciara, Tarhunãh in northwest Libya was studied for the species composition of diatom communities and their ecological characteristics. The waters are generally alkaline (pH = 7.5) and of hard-water (conductivity = 2008 μS/cm) type. The epiphytic diatom growth on benthic filamentous algae was high (32 taxa) with Amphora veneta as a very common taxon. Gomphonema parvulum var. micropus was an important taxon found in scrapings from the leaves of macrophytes and stony substratum. Nitzschia and Navicula showed high species richness (9 taxa in each) followed by Gomphonema (6 taxa). The ecological attributes of the majority of taxa show an oligohalobe status and alkaliphilous indicator.     

A synthetic model for daily streamflow

This paper presents a model for synthesising daily average streamflow data that is suitable for most rivers in Great Britain. The method is based on a linear interpolation of the logorithms of 5-day average flows. The 5-day average flows are produced using N.T. Kottegoda's statistical model (Thesis, Univ. of Birmingham, 1970). The 5-day model preserves the long-term statistical characteristics of the daily data, while the short-term characteristics such as hydrograph shape are imposed by the interpolation method.

A stochastic error term is superimposed on the interpolated daily flows. This term represents the non-deterministic component of the daily time series. The analysis of the observed error terms represents an important part of this paper.

The riverflow in the Severn at Bewdley is used to demonstrate both the analysis of actual data and the generation of synthetic data. The technique is then applied to data from two other rivers with widely differing characteristics to demonstrate the range of the method.