A transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 for climate information providers: the case of surface temperature over eastern North America

The release of new data constituting the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) database is an important event in both climate science and climate services issues. Although users’ eagerness for a fast transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 is expected, this change implies some challenges for climate information providers. The main reason is that the two sets of experiments were performed in different ways regarding radiative forcing and hence continuity between both datasets is partially lost. The objective of this research is to evaluate a metric that is independent of the amount and the evolution of radiative forcing, hence facilitating comparison between the two sets for surface temperature over eastern North America. The link between CMIP3 and CMIP5 data sets is explored spatially and locally (using the ratio of local to global temperatures) through the use of regional warming patterns, a relationship between the grid-box and the global mean temperature change for a certain time frame. Here, we show that local to global ratios are effective tools in making climate change information between the two sets comparable. As a response to the global mean temperature change, both CMIP experiments show very similar warming patterns, trends, and climate change uncertainty for both winter and summer. Sensitivity of the models to radiative forcing is not assessed. Real inter-model differences remain the largest source of uncertainty when calculating warming patterns as well as spatially-based patterns for the pattern scaling approach. This relationship between the datasets, which may escape users when they are provided with a single radiative forcing pathway, needs to be stressed by climate information providers.     

Summer circulation patterns related to the upper tropospheric vortices over the Tropical South Atlantic

Summary Daily 200-hPa relative vorticity data have been used to study the dominant patterns related to the cyclonic vortices over the South Atlantic Ocean in the vicinities of northeast Brazil, during the 1980–1989 period. Reference modes were obtained through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 200-hPa filtered vorticity anomalies over northeast Brazil, considering all the southern hemisphere (SH) summers within the study period. The amplitude time series of the first reference mode, separately for each SH summer, was correlated with the corresponding filtered vorticity anomalies in a larger area extending from 20°N to 40°S and between 120°W and 20°W. The correlation patterns feature a wave-like structure along eastern South America, with three main centers: the first one, over the South Atlantic off the northeast Brazil coast, is associated with the cyclonic vortices; the second one, over eastern Brazil, represents the corresponding anomalously amplified ridges; and the third one, over southern Brazil/Uruguay, is related to the equatorward incursions of midlatitude upper level troughs. This wave-like pattern is consistent with the vortex formation mechanism suggested in previous works. Another wave-like pattern southwest-northeast oriented is evident over the tropical southeastern Pacific, for some years. The internannual variability of these patterns is discussed in this paper.With 9 Figures