Non-parametric copulas for circular–linear and circular–circular data: an application to wind directions

This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to estimating the dependence relationships between circular variables and other circular or linear variables using copulas. The proposed method is based on the use of Bernstein copulas which are a very flexible class of non-parametric copulas which allows for the approximation of any kind of dependence structure, including non symmetric relationships. In particular, we present a simple procedure to adapt Bernstein copulas to the circular framework and guarantee that the constructed bivariate distributions are strictly continuous. We provide two illustrative case studies, the first on the relation between wind direction and quantity of rainfall in the North of Spain and the second on the dependence between the wind directions in two nearby buoys at the Atlantic ocean.     

The Use of Resonant Orbits in Satellite Geodesy: A Review

Dynamic resonance, arising from commensurate (orbital or rotational) periods of satellites or planets with each other, has been a strong force in the development of the solar system. The repetition of conditions over the commensurate periods can result in amplified long-term changes in the positions of the bodies involved. Such resonant phenomena driven by the commensurability between the mean motion of certain artificial Earth satellites and the Earth’s rotation originally contributed to the evaluation and assessment of the Stokes parameters (harmonic geopotential coefficients) that specify the Earth’s gravitational field. The technique constrains linear combinations of the harmonic coefficients that are of relevant resonant order (lumped coefficients). The attraction of the method eventually dwindled, but the very accurate orbits of CHAMP and GRACE have recently led to more general insights for commensurate orbits applied to satellite geodesy involving the best resolution for all coefficients, not just resonant ones. From the GRACE mission, we learnt how to explain and predict temporary decreases in the resolution and accuracy of derived geopotential parameters, due to passages through low-order commensurabilities, which lead to low-density ground-track patterns. For GOCE we suggest how to change a repeat orbit height slightly, to achieve the best feasible recovery of the field parameters derived from on-board gradiometric measurements by direct inversion from the measurements to the harmonic geopotential coefficients, not by the way of lumped coefficients. For orbiters of Mars, we have suggestions which orbits should be avoided. The slow rotation of Venus results in dense ground-tracks and excellent gravitational recovery for almost all orbiters.     

An Overview of Thunderstorm-Related Research on the Atmospheric Electric Field, Schumann Resonances, Sprites, and the Ionosphere at Sopron, Hungary

This paper gives a resume of the papers written in English which (a) describe some of the recording instruments in use at the Nagycenk Observatory (NCK) since the International Geophysical Year (IGY 1957–1958) and up to the present time, (b) summarise the most important and different types of observations associated with thunderstorms which have been made there, and (c) discuss their various geophysical interpretations. The paper describes the main results which have been obtained in four areas of thunderstorm associated atmospheric and geospace science within the context of Earth system science. These relate to the following parameters of atmospheric electricity: the vertical electric potential gradient just above the Earth’s surface and the air–Earth current as well as the point discharge current, Schumann resonance (SR) signals of the Earth-ionosphere cavity at 8, 14 and 20 Hz, transient luminous events (TLEs), and some aspects of the behaviour of the ionosphere. Deductions from these data sets are concerned with the global lightning activity and the conductivity of the air, with diurnal, seasonal, annual and long-term variations of the SR amplitudes and resonant frequencies in terms of migrating thunderstorm centres, with transient SR excitations and with sprites and other TLEs, and with ionospheric disturbances. The paper closes with some thoughts on future research directions based on the observations at NCK and Sopron and the results achieved since the IGY.     

Residual drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions

This paper presents the main results of the evaluation of residual inter‐story drift demands in typical moment‐resisting steel buildings designed accordingly to the Mexican design practice when subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions. Analytical 2D‐framed models representative of the study‐case buildings were subjected to a set of 30 narrow‐band earthquake ground motions recorded on stations placed in soft‐soil sites of Mexico City, where most significant structural damage was found in buildings as a consequence of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, and scaled to reach several levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analyses. Thus, results were statistically processed to obtain hazard curves of peak (maximum) and residual drift demands for each frame model. It is shown that the study‐case frames might exhibit maximum residual inter‐story drift demands in excess of 0.5%, which is perceptible for building's occupants and could cause human discomfort, for a mean annual rate of exceedance associated to peak inter‐story drift demands of about 3%, which is the limiting drift to avoid collapse prescribed in the 2004 Mexico City Seismic Design Provisions. The influence of a member's post‐yield stiffness ratio and material overstrength in the evaluation of maximum residual inter‐story drift demands is also discussed. Finally, this study introduces response transformation factors, T_p, that allow establishing residual drift limits compatible with the same mean annual rate of exceedance of peak inter‐story drift limits for future seismic design/evaluation criteria that take into account both drift demands for assessing a building's seismic performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical and isotopic assessment of surface water–shallow groundwater interaction in the arid Grande river basin,North-Central Chile

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the composition of surface water and shallow groundwater in the Grande River basin, North-Central Chile, using this information to characterize water interactions. Chemical and isotopic data for surface water and groundwater (7 and 6 sampling locations, respectively) were obtained from three sampling campaigns performed in March–April (autumn), August–September (late winter) and December (early summer) 2012. Precipitation samples were also collected. Data was processed using spatial distribution charts, Piper and Stiff diagrams, and multivariate analysis. In general, the results for each method converge on a high degree of connectivity between surface water and shallow groundwater in the study area. Furthermore, approximately a 10% of groundwater contribution to the surface flow discharge was estimated for a particular reach. This multi-method approach was useful for the characterization of surface water–groundwater interactions in the Grande River basin, and may become a suitable and replicable scheme for studies in arid and semi-arid basins facing similar water management challenges.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor B. Dewals     

Evaporative losses from soils covered by physical and different types of biological soil crusts

Evaporation of soil moisture is one of the most important processes affecting water availability in semiarid ecosystems. Biological soil crusts, which are widely distributed ground cover in these ecosystems, play a recognized role on water processes. Where they roughen surfaces, water residence time and thus infiltration can be greatly enhanced, whereas their ability to clog soil pores or cap the soil surface when wetted can greatly decrease infiltration rate, thus affecting evaporative losses. In this work, we compared evaporation in soils covered by physical crusts, biological crusts in different developmental stages and in the soils underlying the different biological crust types. Our results show that during the time of the highest evaporation (Day 1), there was no difference among any of the crust types or the soils underlying them. On Day 2, when soil moisture was moderately low (11%), evaporation was slightly higher in well‐developed biological soil crusts than in physical or poorly developed biological soil crusts. However, crust removal did not cause significant changes in evaporation compared with the respective soil crust type. These results suggest that the small differences we observed in evaporation among crust types could be caused by differences in the properties of the soil underneath the biological crusts. At low soil moisture (<6%), there was no difference in evaporation among crust types or the underlying soils. Water loss for the complete evaporative cycle (from saturation to dry soil) was similar in both crusted and scraped soils. Therefore, we conclude that for the specific crust and soil types tested, the presence or the type of biological soil crust did not greatly modify evaporation with respect to physical crusts or scraped soils. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A neuro fuzzy approach to recognize rock magnetic and lithological patterns in a stratigraphic well from the Llanos Foreland Basin (Colombia)

The Neuro Fuzzy System (NFS) is a hybrid algorithm that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks. Since it can be used as a pattern recognition technique, we explore its potential to characterize the major lithological units encompassed by the first 512 m of the Colombian stratigraphic well Saltarin 1A (Guayabo and León Formations). Thus, we employ the NFS to infer the magnetic remanence S-ratio using bulk magnetic susceptibility (κ), κ-normalized saturation isothermal magnetization (SIRM κ) and/or volume of shale (V_sh) obtained from a gamma-ray log. The best results in terms of their corresponding Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) values, throughout most of the upper Guayabo Formation, where magnetite seems to be an important magnetic phase, are attained with logκ and SIRM κ as input variables. Beyond 350 m downcore, the quality of the inference decreases over the León Formation, characterized by a significant presence of pyrrhotite. However, the extra input variable V_sh adjusts the inferred S-ratio to their experimental counterparts throughout this formation suggesting that the early diagenesis process that led to the formation of dispersed clay in these samples was also responsible for the formation of pyrrhotite. Hence the inclusion of manifold input data increases the ability of the net to predict S-ratio in complex geological settings with a sequence of changing lithologies, varying amounts and types of magnetic minerals, and different distributions of mineral grain sizes. In case these variables do not properly infer the actual S-ratio data, the extent of the different lithostratigraphic units would be still identifiable in some cases by the uneven quality of the correlation observed between inferred and experimental values.     

Numerical relationships between magnetic parameters measured in Quaternary sediments and global paleoclimatic proxies

The complexity of most geological and geophysical problems prompts sometimes the use of non linear mathematical methods to handle them. An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks, is applied here to study a paleoclimate section from the Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Mucubají (western Venezuela). The purpose of this work is to find a set of numerical relationships that could predict the possible connections between oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) values from two different locations in the northern hemisphere (Ammersee in southern Germany and an ice core from the Greenland Ice Core Project — GRIP) and rock-magnetic parameters measured in Mucubají samples (i.e. mass-specific magnetic susceptibility — χ, magnetic remanence S-ratio, mass-specific saturation isothermal remanent magnetization — SIRM and anhysteretic remanent magnetization — ARM). The best inferences in terms of coefficient of determionation R² and the Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) are obtained using those magnetic data as input that include information about magnetite grain size distributions, e.g., SIRM and ARM in FIS structures [1χ, 4ARM] and [4ARM, 1SIRM]. A comparison between Ammersee and GRIP actual data, as well as their corresponding inferences for the FIS structure [4ARM, 1SIRM], reveals a reasonable good inference of global trends for both records, overlooking the regional and/or local paleoclimate forcings that might have affected Ammersee. A better correlation between global isotope paleoclimate records and magnetic proxies, is perhaps prevented by the role played by local and regional paleoclimate and tectonism in Mucubají. We also argue that the ratio of ARM over SIRM appears to be related in a complex way to the onset and to the end of the Younger Dryas. Our novel approach to the assessment of a specific paleoclimate case study shows the potential of the ANFIS technique in solving problems where traditional univariate and multivariate linear regression methods could prove inadequate.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge

Abstract

This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year^-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year^-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year^-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity.

Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753.