降水邻域集合概率方法尺度敏感性试验

降水邻域集合概率法是处理高分辨率降水集合预报不确定性的一种新方法。利用2017年5~7月GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System)区域集合预报系统24 h降水预报资料,进行GRAPES降水邻域集合概率方法试验,并针对邻域概率法的等权重和邻域尺度问题,设计了邻域格点权重修正邻域方案以及二分类权重修正邻域方案,进行降水的集合概率法、等权重邻域集合概率方法、权重修正邻域集合概率方法和二分类权重修正邻域集合概率方法等四种方法的格点相关及敏感性试验,并利用多种概率预报检验评分评估上述四种方法的预报效果。试验结果表明:(1)尽管采用邻域计算方案的三种邻域集合概率方法的降水概率预报评分各有优劣,如等权重邻域集合概率法的相对作用特征曲线面积评分略优,而权重修正邻域集合概率法和二分类权重修正邻域集合概率法的降水概率预报可靠性更高,但采用了邻域计算方案的降水概率预报评分均优于传统的集合概率方法;(2)降水邻域集合概率方法的预报技巧对邻域尺度很敏感,统计评分最优的邻域半径为5~8倍模式水平格距;(3)引入了权重修正的两个邻域集合概率预报方法在24 h降水量超过10 mm时改进较明显,能够提供更加客观的概率预报结果。总体上看,降水邻域集合概率方法具有较好的应用前景,恰当的邻域概率方法及邻域半径可以获得更合理的降水概率预报结果。     

PSR B1237+25的强脉冲辐射特性的观测与研究

强脉冲是一种特殊的单脉冲辐射,表现为较强的射电爆发.利用新疆天文台南山25 m射电望远镜研究了PSR B1237+25的强脉冲辐射特性.发现探测到的793个强脉冲出现在积分轮廓的所有辐射成分中,峰值流量密度是平均脉冲的10.2至82.5倍.用对数正态分布对强脉冲的峰值流量密度比、信噪比和脉冲宽度的分布进行了拟合.在15...     

Monitoring of Impact of Ferti‐irrigation by Post‐methanated Distillery Effluent on Groundwater Quality

The impact assessment of molasses‐based distillery‐effluent irrigation on groundwater quality around village Gajraula in the district of Jyotiba Phule Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India was studied by sampling groundwater on monthly intervals consecutively for summer, winter and monsoon seasons during 2006–2007 and water quality parameters, viz. pH, electrical conductivity (EC), chloride (Cl^?), sulphate (SO), nitrate (NO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total solids (TS), total dissolved solids (TDS), sodium (Na⁺), potassium (K⁺), calcium (Ca²⁺), magnesium (Mg²⁺), zinc (Zn²⁺), iron (Fe³⁺), and total coliforms (TC) were monitored. Results depicted that the values of all parameters decreased with increasing depth of water table. Sulphate, nitrate and potassium contents were maximal in agricultural site during monsoon while EC, Cl^?, TS, TDS, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Zn, and Fe were maximal in industrial sites during summer. Groundwater samples of residential site harboured maximum coliforms especially during monsoon, highlighting threat to groundwater. Significant positive correlation matrix between coliforms with nitrate, sulphate and potassium ions explained their survival on these nutrients. To overcome this, important measures emphasizing improvement in effluent treatment technology matching site‐specific characteristics are recommended for eco‐friendly ferti‐irrigation.     

Impact of forest degradation on streamflow regime and runoff response to rainfall in the Garhwal Himalaya,Northwest India

Baseflows have declined for decades in the Lesser Himalaya but the causes are still debated. This paper compares variations in streamflow response over three years for two similar headwater catchments in northwest India with largely undisturbed (Arnigad) and highly degraded (Bansigad) oak forest. Hydrograph analysis suggested no catchment leakage, thereby allowing meaningful comparisons. The mean annual runoff coefficient for Arnigad was 54% (range 44–61%) against 62% (53–69%) at Bansigad. Despite greater total runoff Q_t (by 250 mm year^–1), baseflow at Bansigad ceased by March, but was perennial at Arnigad (making up 90% of Q_t vs. 51% at Bansigad). Arnigad storm flows, Q_s, were modest (8–11% of Q_t) and occurred mostly during monsoons (78–98%), while Q_s at Bansigad was 49% of Q_t and occurred also during post-monsoon seasons. Our results underscore the importance of maintaining soil water retention capacity after forest removal to maintain baseflow levels.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten     

A New Explanation for the Origin of Trans-equatorial Loops based on a Dynamo Model

Trans-equatorial loops (TLs) are one of the distinct magnetic structures in the solar corona and have a close relationship to solar activity. We present a systematic study of the origin of TLs linking with the Babcock?–?Leighton dynamo process based on the model of Chatterjee, Nandy, and Choudhuri (Astron. Astrophys. 427, 1019, 2004). We propose that TLs are visible signatures of poloidal field lines across the equator. The cycle variation of TL lengths obtained by the connectivities of poloidal field lines happens to be roughly in agreement with what one gets by considering the positions of sunspots. This explains why this cycle variation of TL lengths was found to be in conformity with Spörer’s law. The active regions always make the poloidal field configuration favorable to form TLs, which causes the conformity. The formation of TLs is a three-dimensional problem, which will require three-dimensional dynamo models for full investigation.     

Stability Assessment and Quantitative Evaluation of H/V Spectral Ratios for Site Response Studies in Kumaon Himalaya, India Using Ambient Noise Recorded by a Broadband Seismograph Network

The Kumaon Himalaya region in India has accumulated considerable seismic risk potential from moderate to high seismicity due to ongoing tectonic evolutionary processes. To assess conditions of high seismic risk arising from local site effects at populated locations, we applied the empirical horizontal to vertical (H/V) spectral amplitude ratio method (Nakamura in Quarterly Reports of the Railway Technical Research Institute Tokyo, 30:25–33, 1989) using ambient seismic noise recorded by a network of 32 digital broadband seismographs from June 2005 to June 2008. The data and the estimated parameters were subjected to stability tests to assess the effect of seasonal variations. Seasonal variations in the ambient noise data seemed to show a lesser effect on fundamental frequency estimates and a slightly greater effect on the peak H/V amplitudes. Validation of the ambient noise results was done by complementary tests using H/V ratios of local and regional earthquakes. The ‘peak’ corresponding to the fundamental resonance frequency is prominently present in both the ambient noise and the earthquake datasets. The study locations showed distinct H/V curve topologies, corresponding to the effects of both velocity contrast at well-defined frequencies and characteristic topographic effect around a certain frequency range. The clearly indicated ‘peaks’ in the H/V curves possibly correspond to velocity contrasts created by weathered sediments overlying hard rock basements in rocky hills. Our study indicates high site responses at many populated locations near the surface trace of the seismically active Main Central Thrust (MCT) and other fault boundaries. The fundamental resonance frequencies estimated from the site response studies at the 32 locations could be useful in preliminary site characterization, ground motion prediction and seismic hazard analysis.