Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Political ecology of tiger conservation in India: Adverse effects of banning customary practices in a protected area

Protected areas have had significant impacts on local communities primarily through the physical removal of people. In some instances, people continue to live within protected areas due to the inability of the state to evict them. The restrictions on livelihoods placed on people living inside protected areas lead to in situ displacement. We show how conservation enclosures in the Biligiri Rangaswamy Temple Tiger Reserve have produced a class of people that the state ‘lets die’ by banning customary practices such as fire use, hunting and harvesting of forest produce. Using longitudinal ethnographic, socio‐economic and ecological data, we demonstrate that conservation policy has alienated indigenous forest dwellers from their agricultural and forest‐land. The outcomes of conservation policy include dispossession through increased crop losses, reduced income from agriculture and forest produce, as well as a forest that is dominated by weeds due to fire suppression. The ban on hunting in particular has increased wildlife densities, which has enabled the state to accumulate revenues through the establishment of wildlife tourism facilities. All in all, centralized protected area governance has changed the relationships among people, forest and the state in a way that has produced adverse effects for both livelihoods and the ecosystem.     

Amino acids of the Murchison meteorite: II. Five carbon acyclic primary β-, γ-, and δ-amino alkanoic acids

All ten of the possible five-carbon acyclic primary β-, γ-, and δ-amino alkanoic acids (amino position isomers of the valines) have been positively identified in hot-water extracts of the Murchison meteorite using combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and ion exchange chromatography. With the exception of δ-aminovaleric acid, none of these amino acids has been previously reported to occur in meteorites or in any other natural material. The γ-amino acids (4-aminopentanoic acid, 4-aminc-2-meth-ylbutanoic acid, and 4-amino-3-methylbutanoic acid) are present at higher concentrations (about 5 nmol g^?1) than are the β-amino isomers (3-aminopentanoic acid, 3-amino-2-methylbutanoic acid, allo-3-amino-2-methylbutanoic acid, 3-amino-3-methylbutanoic acid, 3-amino-2-ethylpropanoic acid, and 3-amino-2,2-dimethylpropanoic acid) which are present at concentrations of 1–2 nmol g^?1. These amino acids are less abundant in the meteorite than either the corresponding α-amino acids or the four-carbon homologues. Thirty-six amino acids have now been positively identified in the Murchison meteorite, 17 of which are apparently unique to carbonaceous chondrites. The fact that the meteorite contains all possible five-carbon acyclic primary α-, β-, γ-, and δ-amino alkanoic acids is consistent with a synthetic process involving random combination of single-carbon precursors.     

用间接浓度法测量干沉积通量

本文描述了用以测量干沉积通量的间接浓度法,推导并验证了估算沉积速度的阻力模式,评价了间接浓度法测量二氧化硫(SO_2)和臭氧(O_3)干沉积通量的误差. 结果表明,阻力模式能较准确地估算周平均沉积速度.用间接浓度法推算的O_3的周平均干沉积通量的份数误差为0.26,若配以日夜分离或稳定度分类采样,则误差将降至0.05;SO_2的份数误差只有0.15,但上述采样方法却不能减小其份数误差. 此外,O_3和SO_2的日间通量分别比其夜间通量大10倍和3倍.SO_2和O_3的沉积速度均有强烈的日周期变化,然而SO_2的日周期中,间有因地湿而畸变的现象.O_3浓度亦有一明显的日周期,且与它的沉积速度的日周期存在三小时的相位差.SO_2浓度则无明显日周期变化.     

Slab weakening: Mechanical and thermal-mechanical consequences for slab detachment

Abstract Slab detachment is a geophysical instability whose manifestation can be revealed by seismic tomography. Evidence of this phenomenon is in the Dinarides/Hellenic and the New Hebrides subduction zones. Subducted slabs in these regions are torn horizontally at depths ranging from 100 to 300 km. We constructed a viscoelastic three-dimensional finite element model and investigated the state of stress. We found that an area with high stress concentration of the order of several hundred MPa is formed near the tip of the tear inside the slab, which can cause lateral migration of the tear. Favorable conditions for slab detachment are characterized by large interplate frictional force at a subduction zone and small slab resistance force deeper down. Stress concentration increases with the down-dip tension inside the slab. The phenomenon of slab weakening has also been studied from a thermal-mechanical standpoint, using a two-dimensional convection model with non-Newtonian, temperature-dependent rheology. The stress-dependent rheology plays an important role in causing local weakening of the descending slab. In strongly time-dependent situations the fast descending slab is not strong everywhere but has a weak region in the middle, making it vulnerable to slab detachment. The presence of viscous heating will enhance slab detachment tendency by further weakening the interior by the frictional heating. Besides these effects, there are other mechanisms which can also weaken the slab interior and help to make slabs more pliable and susceptible to detachment.     

2-D Crustal thermal structure along Thuadara-Sindad DSS profile across Narmada-Son lineament,central India

Central India is traversed by a WSW-ENE trending Narmada-Son lineament (NSL) which is characterized by the presence of numerous hot springs, feeder dykes for Deccan Traps and seismicity all along its length. It is divided in two parts by the Barwani-Sukta Fault (BSF). To the west of this fault a graben exists, whereas to the east the basement is uplifted between Narmada North Fault (NNF) and Narmada South Fault (NSF). The present work deals with the 2-D thermal modeling to delineate the crustal thermal structure of the western part of NSL region along the Thuadara-Sindad Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) profile which runs almost in the N-S direction across the NSL. Numerical results of the model reveal that the conductive surface heat flow value in the region under consideration varies between 45 and 47mW/m². Out of which 23mW/m² is the contribution from the mantle heat flow and the remaining from within the crust. The Curie depth is found to vary between 46 and 47 km and is in close agreement with the earlier reported Curie depth estimated from the analysis of MAGSAT data. The Moho temperature varies between 470 and 500°C. This study suggests that this western part of central Indian region is characterized by low mantle heat flow which in turn makes the lower crust brittle and amenable to the occurrence of deep focused earthquakes such as Satpura (1938) earthquake.     

Interactive Web-Based Map: Applications to Large Data Sets in the Geosciences

Current advances in computer hardware, information technology and data collection techniques have produced very large data sets in a wide variety of scientific and engineering disciplines. We must harness this opportunity to visualize and extract useful information from geophysical and geological data. We have taken the task of data mining by implementing a map-like approach over a web server for interrogating the data, using a client-server paradigm. The spatial-data is mapped onto a two-dimensional grid from which the user (client) can quiz the data with the map-interface as a user extension. The data is stored on the server, while the computational gateway separating the client and the server can be the front-end of an electronic publication, electronic classroom, a survey, or an e-business. We have used a combination of Java, Java3D, and Perl for processing the data and communicating between the client and the server. The user can interrogate the geospatial data over any particular region with arbitrary dimensions and then receive back relevant statistical analysis, such as the histogram plots and local statistics. We have applied this method for the following data sets: (1.) distribution of prime numbers (2.) two-dimensional mantle convection (3.) three-dimensional mantle convection (4.) high-resolution satellite reflectance data over multiple wavelengths (5.) molecular dynamics describing the flow of blood in narrow vessels. Using the map-interface, one can actually interrogate this data over the Internet.     

Teleseismic delay-time tomography of the upper mantle beneath southeastern India: imprint of Indo–Antarctica rifting

A 3-D P -velocity map of the crust and upper mantle beneath the southeastern part of India has been reconstructed through the inversion of teleseismic traveltimes. Salient geological features in the study region include the Archean Dharwar Craton and Eastern Ghat metamorphic belt (EGMB), and the Proterozoic Cuddapah and Godavari basins. The Krishna–Godavari basin, on the eastern coastal margin, evolved in response to the Indo–Antarctica breakup. A 24-station temporary network provided 1161 traveltimes, which were used to model 3-D P -velocity variation. The velocity model accounts of 80 per cent of the observed data variance. The velocity picture to a depth of 120 km shows two patterns: a high velocity beneath the interior domain (Dharwar craton and Cuddapah basin), and a lower velocity beneath the eastern margin region (EGMB and coastal basin). Across the array velocity variations of 7–10 per cent in the crust (0–40 km) and 3–5 per cent in the uppermost mantle (40–120 km) are observed. At deeper levels (120–210 km) the upper-mantle velocity differences are insignificant among different geological units. The presence of such a low velocity along the eastern margin suggests significantly thin lithosphere (<100 km) beneath it compared to a thick lithosphere (>200 km) beneath the eastern Dharwar craton. Such lithospheric thinning could be a consequence of Indo–Antarctica break-up.     

An Approach to a Visual Language for Convective Fluid Flows: Visualization of Geophysical Simulations

It was known that deep within numbers and binary data from simulations of geophysical convective flows resided various patterns. Two models of convective fluid flows were being considered. One was a model of two-dimensional (768 × 256) air convection with finite Prandtl number of one and Rayleigh number of 10⁸−10¹⁰, and another was a model of three-dimensional (up to 120 × 120 × 90) mantle convection with infinite Prandtl number and Rayleigh number of 10⁶−10⁸. Clearly, phenomena existed which superceded each individual dimensionless computer model to provide a piece of information regarding actual fluid flows. The problem was how to find, prove, and communicate these patterns and phenomena for convection simulations with gigabytes of data. In a search for such an analytical and communicative tool, the alternative of visualization was considered. The need for visualization was recognized and discussed. Then, utilizing both two- and three-dimensional models of high Rayleigh number convection, basic techniques of style and content were developed. Applications of the visualization techniques were designed utilizing IBM’s Data Explorer in order to create communicative images and movies, and after the applications, the problems of data storage and transfer became apparent. Throughout the process though, it became clear how important the language of vision actually could be in the geophysics community. In a field in which words such as plumes and internal waves have in ways replaced mathematics as the basic language for science, there is a need for another resource, another language-the visualization of convective fluid flows.