Electron acceleration in flares inferred from radio and hard X-ray emissions

Properties of electron acceleration in flares, especially the density structure in the acceleration region, are deduced from a correlation study between decimetric type III, spike, and hard X-ray (HXR) bursts. The high association rate found (71%) strongly suggests that spikes also originate from energetic electrons. Spikes and type III bursts have been found to be easily identified by their different polarizations. The two types of emission generally do not overlap in frequency. A reliable lower limit to the density is derived from the starting frequency of type III and U bursts. The spike emission very likely yields an upper limit. The density inhomogeneity in the acceleration region spans more than one order of magnitude and is more than one order of magnitude larger in the associated type U sources. A peak-to-peak correlation does not always exist between type III, spike and HXR bursts. This discrepancy can be interpreted in terms of the different source conditions and propagation properties. Whereas spikes need special conditions to become visible, type III and peaks of HXR may be the product of many elementary accelerations.Proceedings of the Workshop on Radio Continua during Solar Flares, held at Duino (Trieste), Italy, 27–31 May, 1985.     

Electron trapping in evolving coronal structures during a large gradual hard X-ray/radio burst

Gradual hard X-ray/radio bursts are characterized by their long duration, smooth time profile, time delays between peaks at different hard X-ray energies and microwaves, and radiation from extended sources in the low and middle corona. Their characteristic properties have been ascribed to the dynamic evolution of the accelerated electrons in coronal magnetic traps or to the separate acceleration of high-energy electrons in a second step process. The information available so far was drawn from qualitative considerations of time profiles or even only from the common occurrence of emissions in different spectral ranges. This paper presents model computations of the temporal evolution of hard X-ray and microwave spectra, together with a qualitative discussion of radio lightcurves over a wide spectral range, and metric imaging observations. The basic hypothesis investigated is that the peculiar gradual features can be related to the dynamical evolution of electrons injected over an extended time interval in a coronal trap, with electrons up to relativistic energies being injected simultaneously. The analyzed event (26 April, 1981) is particularly challenging to this hypothesis because of the long time delays between peaks at different X-ray energies and microwave frequencies. The observations are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis, provided that the electrons lose their energy by Coulomb collisions and possibly betatron deceleration. The access of the electrons to different coronal structures varies in the course of the event. The evolution and likely destabilisation of part of the coronal plasma-magnetic field configuration is of crucial influence in determining the access to these structures and possibly the dynamical evolution of the trapped electrons through betatron deceleration in the late phase of the event.     

Experience of the International Association of Geoanalysts as a Certifying Body

Reference materials (RMs) to support geoanalysis have a long history, dating back to the issuance of G-1 and W-1 in 1951. This paper addresses only one aspect of the most recent part of that history, the experience of the International Association of Geoanalysts (IAG) as a certifying body. In 2002, the Certification Committee of the IAG met in Potsdam to discuss becoming a certifying body able to produce RMs for the geoanalytical community. Following that meeting, the IAG developed and published a protocol to assure that IAG RMs would meet International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines to the fullest extent possible. Many practical problems arise in the application of the recommendations of the ISO Guides to any one specific certification project. The recommendations describe the ideal; achievable reality is always somewhat less than that ideal, presenting a significant challenge to the IAG as a certifying body. This paper will summarise experience to date, while focusing on the most challenging issues, deriving uncertainties compliant with the Guide to Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and establishing traceability of certified values (CVs).     

How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?

Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were Ro (i.e., Rz(min)) and Rz values Ra, Rb, and Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used). Ro had a moderate correlation (<0.6) with Rz(max), but Ra, Rb, Rc had better correlations. For hindsight predictions for cycles 18–23, the predictions for cycle 19 was grossly erroneous (observed value almost double of the predicted value). For other cycles, the errors were within 25%. For cycle 24, the Rz monthly values up to March 2008 give 12-month running means centered in June, July, August, September 2007 as 7.6, 6.5, 5.8, 6.1. Thus, though we cannot be absolutely sure yet that Rz(min) for cycle 24 has occurred, a tentative, provisional prediction using Rz(min) (i.e., Ro) as 5.8 is Rz(max)=113±19, i.e., in the range 94–132. This is an upper limit, as Ro value may reduce further in coming months, but most probably not very much. For Ro=5.0, the prediction would be Rz(max)= 109±17, while in the extreme hypothetical case of Ro=0.0, the prediction would be Rz(max)=79±14.     

Yukon River Basin long‐term (1977–2006) hydrologic and climatic analysis

In this study, long‐term discharge data and climate records, such as temperature and precipitation during 1977–2006, have been used to define basin climatic and hydrologic regimes and changes. Discharge analyses at four key gauging stations (Eagle, Stevens Village, Nenana, and Pilot Station) in the Yukon River Basin show that the runoff in the cold season (November to April) is low with small variations, whereas it is high (28 500–177 000 ft³/s; 810–5000 m³/s) with high fluctuations in the warm season (May to October). The Stevens Village Station is in the upper basin and has similar changes with the flow near basin outlet. Flow increases in May (61 074 ft³/s; 1729 m³/s) and September (23 325 ft³/s; 660 m³/s); and decreases in July (35 174 ft³/s; 996 m³/s) and August (6809 ft³/s; 193 m³/s). Discharge in May at the Pilot Station (near the basin outlet) shows a positive trend (177 000 ft³/s; 5010 m³/s). Daily flow analyses show high fluctuation during the warm season and very low flow during the cold season; the 10‐year average analyses of daily flow at Pilot Station show a small increase in the peak and its timing shifted to a little earlier date. The annual flow, average of 227 900 ft³/s (6450 m³/s) with high inter‐annual fluctuations, has increased by 18 200 ft³/s (or 8%; 520 m³/s) during 1977–2006. From 1977 to 2006, basin air temperature in June has increased by 3.9 °F (2.2 °C) and decreased by 10.5 °F (5.8 °C) in January. A strong and positive correlation exists between air temperature in April and discharge in May, whereas a strong and negative correlation relates August temperature and September discharge. Negative trend during 1977–2006 is observed for precipitation in June (0.6 in.; 15 mm) with a confidence over 93%. Precipitation in August and September has strong and positive correlations with discharge in September and October at basin outlet; the precipitation in other months has weak correlation with the discharge. The mean annual precipitation during 1977–2006 increased by 1.1 in. (or 8%; 28 mm), which contributes to the annual flow increase during the study period. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hysteresis of Cosmic Rays with Respect to Sunspot Numbers During the Recent Sunspot Minimum

Cosmic ray neutron monitors show intensity changes (counts) anti-correlated with sunspot number R _z, but with a lag of a few months. The lag is ∼ 3 months for even cycles and ∼ 9 – 15 months for odd cycles. Thus, for the recently started even Cycle 24, a lag of ∼ 3 months was expected. However, for Cycle 24, whereas R _z had a minimum value (zero) in August 2009, cosmic ray intensity decreased only after March 2010, with a lag of seven months with respect to R _z. Thus, Cycle 24 did not conform to the known pattern of even cycles (lag of ∼ 3 months). It may be noted that the minimum at the juncture of Cycle 23-24 was abnormally long, tens of months instead of few months as in earlier cycles. Also, in this solar minimum, the cosmic ray intensity was much higher than in previous cycles.     

Two Models of Magnetic Support for Photoevaporated Molecular Clouds

The thermal pressure inside molecular clouds is insufficient for maintaining the pressure balance at an ablation front at the cloud surface illuminated by nearby UV stars. Most probably, the required stiffness is provided by the magnetic pressure. After surveying existing models of this type, we concentrate on two of them: the model of a quasi-homogeneous magnetic field and the recently proposed model of a “magnetostatic turbulence”. We discuss observational consequences of the two models, in particular, the structure and the strength of the magnetic field inside the cloud and in the ionized outflow. We comment on the possible role of reconnection events and their observational signatures. We mention laboratory experiments where the most significant features of the models can be tested.     

Lags and Hysteresis Loops of Cosmic Ray Intensity Versus Sunspot Numbers: Quantitative Estimates for Cycles 19 – 23 and a Preliminary Indication for Cycle 24

Hysteresis plots between cosmic-ray (CR) intensity (recorded at the Climax station) and sunspot relative number R _Z show broad loops in odd cycles (19, 21, and 23) and narrow loops in even cycles (20 and 22). However, in the even cycles, the loops are not narrow throughout the whole cycle; around the sunspot-maximum period, a broad loop is seen. Only in the rising and declining phases, the loops are narrow in even cycles. The CR modulation is known to have a delay with respect to R _Z, and the delay was believed to be longer in odd cycles (19, 21, and 23; about 10 months) than the delay in even cycles (20 and 22; about 3?–?5 months). When this was reexamined, it was found that the delays are different during the sunspot-minimum periods (2, 6, and 14 months for odd cycles and 7 and 9 months for even cycles) and sunspot-maximum periods (0, 4, and 7 months for odd cycles and 5 and 8 months for even cycles). Thus, the differences between odd and even cycles are not significant throughout the whole cycle. In the recent even cycle 24, hysteresis plots show a preliminary broadening near the sunspot maximum, which occurred recently (February 2012). The CR level (recorded at Newark station) is still high in 2013, indicating a long lag (exceeding 10 months) with respect to the sunspot maximum.