Detecting the signatures of Uranus and Neptune

With more than 15 years since the first radial velocity discovery of a planet orbiting a Sun-like star, the time baseline for radial velocity surveys is now extending out beyond the orbit of Jupiter analogs. The sensitivity to exoplanet orbital periods beyond that of Saturn orbital radii however is still beyond our reach such that very few clues regarding the prevalence of ice giants orbiting solar analogs are available to us. Here we simulate the radial velocity, transit, and photometric phase amplitude signatures of the Solar System giant planets, in particular Uranus and Neptune, and assess their detectability. We scale these results for application to monitoring low-mass stars and compare the relative detection prospects with other potential methods, such as astrometry and imaging. These results quantitatively show how many of the existing techniques are suitable for the detection of ice giants beyond the snow line for late-type stars and the challenges that lie ahead for the detection true Uranus/Neptune analogs around solar-type stars.     

Relationship between the geomagnetic Dst(min) and the interplanetary Bz(min) during cycle 23

In cycle 23 for geomagnetic storms of ?Dst(min) >50 nT, the plot of ?Dst(min) versus ?Bz(min) for the low ?Bz(min) range 0–10 nT showed erratic variation in Dst(min), (correlation 0.19). Even for ?Bz(min) range 10–20 nT, ?Dst(min) values had considerable scatter (correlation 0.57). For ?Bz(min).>20 nT, the relationship was good (correlation 0.82). For the whole range ?Bz(min) 0–50 nT, the correlation was high (0.88). Thus, if ?Bz(min) is very large (～20 nT), large ?Dst(min) occurs but in a wide range of 100–500 nT.     

Submarine channel levee shape and sediment waves from physical experiments

Submarine channel levees aggrade through repeated overspill events from the channel axis. The shape of the levees may therefore reflect some characteristic(s) of the overspilling flow. It has been noted that basin floor levees typically have a relatively low-relief and taper exponentially to their termination; in contrast slope channel levees may be much steeper close to the channel. A simple physical experiment was performed where a surge-like sediment-laden current flowed through a curved channel. Significant overspill occurred and generated a deposit flanking the channel on either side. The experiment was repeated 25 times to build up low-relief channel-levees. It was found that in proximal areas, levees were steep and characterised by power-law decays, a transitional zone of logarithmically thinning levee was found a little further down-channel, followed by exponential decays in medial to distal areas. The style of levee decay is a function of spatial variation in overbank sedimentation rates. Where flows rapidly lose momentum and deposit across the grain-size spectrum, i.e., in proximal areas, levees tend to be steep; farther down the channel, the steep levee slope gives way to a more gradually tapering deposit. In more distal parts of the channel, deposition is directly related to sediment settling velocity (rather than the suspended load exceeding flow transport capacity as is the case in proximal areas), the deposit reflects this with relatively simple exponential thickness decays. Additionally, small-scale sediment waves developed under lee wave conditions on the inner-bend overbank. The waves initially migrated slightly towards the channel, but as the style of overspill evolved due to intra-channel deposition, flows moved out of the lee wave window and sedimentation became out of phase with the wavelength of the features and the topography was healed.     

Cosmic Ray Anisotropies Around the Forbush Decrease of April 11, 2001

During the Forbush decrease of April 11, 2001, the Ooty (11.4^∘N, 76.7^∘E, 2200 m altitude, South India) high energy muon detectors showed considerable anisotropies. Some anisotropies and asymmetries indicated that the Earth did not pass the middle of the interplanetary structure (blob), and passed its northern part. Some anisotropies which occurred when the Earth was outside the blob (notably before the Forbush decrease) could be the precursory increases due to reflection from the shock fronts, but some others could not be understood as these appeared in a direction away from the blob.     

Volatility modeling of rainfall time series

Networks of rain gauges can provide a better insight into the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates. A way to estimate the spatial variability of rainfall between gauge points is to interpolate between them. This paper evaluates the spatial autocorrelation of rainfall data in some locations in Peninsular Malaysia using geostatistical technique. The results give an insight on the spatial variability of rainfall in the area, as such, two rain gauges were selected for an in-depth study of the temporal dependence of the rainfall data-generating process. It could be shown that rainfall data are affected by nonlinear characteristics of the variance often referred to as variance clustering or volatility, where large changes tend to follow large changes and small changes tend to follow small changes. The autocorrelation structure of the residuals and the squared residuals derived from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were inspected, the residuals are uncorrelated but the squared residuals show autocorrelation, and the Ljung–Box test confirmed the results. A test based on the Lagrange multiplier principle was applied to the squared residuals from the ARIMA models. The results of this auxiliary test show a clear evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect. Hence, it indicates that generalized ARCH (GARCH) modeling is necessary. An ARIMA error model is proposed to capture the mean behavior and a GARCH model for modeling heteroskedasticity (variance behavior) of the residuals from the ARIMA model. Therefore, the composite ARIMA–GARCH model captures the dynamics of daily rainfall in the study area. On the other hand, seasonal ARIMA model became a suitable model for the monthly average rainfall series of the same locations treated.     

The color of the Kuiper belt Core

Recent dynamical analyses of the Kuiper belt have introduced a rigorous classification scheme, determined the mean orbital plane, and identified “Core” and “Halo” populations as a function of inclination with respect to this plane (Elliot, J.L., Kern, S.D., Clancy, K.B., Gulbis, A.A.S., Millis, R.L., Buie, M.W., Wasserman, L.H., Chiang, E.I., Jordan, A.B., Trilling, D.E., Meech, K.J., 2005. Astron. J. 129, 1117-1162). Here, we use new observations and existing data to investigate the colors of Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) within this framework. With respect to the bulk KBO color distribution (all objects for which we have B-V and V-R colors; median B-R=1.56), we find that the population of objects classified following (Elliot, J.L., Kern, S.D., Clancy, K.B., Gulbis, A.A.S., Millis, R.L., Buie, M.W., Wasserman, L.H., Chiang, E.I., Jordan, A.B., Trilling, D.E., Meech, K.J., 2005. Astron. J. 129, 1117-1162) as Classical tends to be red (B-R>1.56) while the Scattered Near population is mostly neutral (B-R<1.56). Colors of Scattered Extended and Resonant objects are consistent with the bulk distribution. Separating objects into specific resonances demonstrates that the color of the Resonant sample is dominated by KBOs in the 3:2 resonance, which is consistent with previous findings. Unlike the objects in the 3:2 resonance, however, the majority of objects in the 5:2 resonance are neutral and all but one of the objects in the 4:3, 5:3, 7:4, 2:1, and 7:3 resonances are red. In particular, the objects in the 7:4 resonance are remarkably red. We find that the colors of KBOs in the Core (low-inclination) and Halo (high-inclination) are statistically different, with Core objects being primarily red and Halo objects having a slight tendency to be neutral. Notably, virtually all of the non-Resonant Core objects are red. This combination of low inclination, unperturbed orbits and red colors in the Core may be indicative of a relic grouping of objects.     

Results from the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) – II. Stellar variability in the Pegasus field

Recent wide field photometric surveys, which target a specific field for long durations, are ideal for studying both long- and short-period stellar variability. Here, we report on 75 variable stars detected during the observations of a field in Pegasus using the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) instrument, 73 of which are new discoveries. The variables detected include 16 δ Scuti stars, 34 eclipsing binaries, 3 BY Draconis stars and 4 RR Lyraes. We estimate that the fraction of stars in the field brighter than   V ∼ 13.5  exhibiting variable behaviour with an amplitude greater than 0.6 per cent rms is ∼0.4 per cent. These results are compared with other wide field stellar variability surveys, and implications for detecting transits due to extra-solar planets are discussed.     

Eagle Nebula Pillars: From Models to Observations

Over the past few years, our group has been developing hydrodynamic models to simulate formation of the Eagle Nebula pillars. The true test of any model is, of course, how well it can reproduce the observations. Here, we discuss how we go about testing our models against observations. We describe the process by which we “observe” the model data to create synthetic maps. We show an example of this technique using one of our model runs and compare the resultant synthetic map to the real one.     

Phenomenological Theory of the Photoevaporation Front Instability

The dynamics of photoevaporated molecular clouds is determined by the ablative pressure acting on the ionization front. An important step in the understanding of the ensuing motion is to develop the linear stability theory for an initially flat front. Despite the simplifications introduced by linearization, the problem remains quite complex and still draws a lot of attention. The complexity is related to the large number of effects that have to be included in the analysis: acceleration of the front, possible temporal variation of the intensity of the ionizing radiation, the tilt of the radiation flux with respect to the normal to the surface, and partial absorption of the incident radiation in the ablated material. In this paper, we describe a model where all these effects can be taken into account simultaneously, and a relatively simple and universal dispersion relation can be obtained. The proposed phenomenological model may prove to be a helpful tool in assessing the feasibility of the laboratory experiments directed towards scaled modeling of astrophysical phenomena. PACS Numbers: 98.38.Dq, 98.38.Hv, 52.38.Mf, 5257.FG, 52.72.+v     

A comparison of the thick-target model with stereo data on the height structure of solar hard x-ray bursts

The height structure of a thick-target solar hard X-ray source is predicted for a beam injected vertically downward with a power-law spectrum and dominated by Coulomb collisional energy losses. This structure is characterised by the ratio of hard X-ray flux from an upper part of the source to that from the entire source, and is essentially a function only of the atmospheric column density ΔN (cm^?2) in the upper region. These predictions are compared with the flux ratios at 150 keV and 350 keV observed by two spacecraft for five events in which the solar limb occults part of the source for one spacecraft. In three events the occulting levels h ranged from 0 to 2500 km. For these the theoretical and observed ratios are found to be comparable for values of ΔN in reasonable accord with those found at these altitudes by optical and UV spectroscopic modelling of flare chromospheres. In one event the occultation ratio was observed to rise after the burst peak and it is found that this rise is consistent with an increase in ΔN due to conductively driven chromospheric evaporation. However the energy dependence of the occultation ratio is not consistent with that predicted by the model and it is concluded that non-collisional losses must be significant in beam dynamics. In the other two events, the occultation level h was ? 25 000 km. For these the energy dependence of the occultation ratio is comparable with the model predictions. However the values of ΔN required demand extremely high coronal densities and/or acceleration altitudes. Furthermore, the one observed evolution of the occultation ratio is entirely inconsistent with the model. It is concluded that in these, bremsstrahlung emissions other than that from a beam must be important.