An analytical solution for rapidly predicting post-fire peak streamflow for small watersheds in southern California

Following wildfires, the probability of flooding and debris flows increase, posing risks to human lives, downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In southern California (USA), the Rowe, Countryman, and Storey (RCS) 1949 methodology is an empirical method that is used to rapidly estimate post-fire peak streamflow. We re-evaluated the accuracy of RCS for 33 watersheds under current conditions. Pre-fire peak streamflow prediction performance was low, where the average R² was 0.29 and average RMSE was 1.10 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year recurrence interval events, respectively. Post-fire, RCS performance was also low, with an average R² of 0.26 and RMSE of 15.77 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year events. We demonstrated that RCS overgeneralizes watershed processes and does not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variability in systems affected by wildfire and extreme weather events and often underpredicted peak streamflow without sediment bulking factors. A novel application of machine learning was used to identify critical watershed characteristics including local physiography, land cover, geology, slope, aspect, rainfall intensity, and soil burn severity, resulting in two random forest models with 45 and five parameters (RF-45 and RF-5, respectively) to predict post-fire peak streamflow. RF-45 and RF-5 performed better than the RCS method; however, they demonstrated the importance and reliance on data availability. The important parameters identified by the machine learning techniques were used to create a three-dimensional polynomial function to calculate post-fire peak streamflow in small catchments in southern California during the first year after fire (R² = 0.82; RMSE = 6.59 cms/km²) which can be used as an interim tool by post-fire risk assessment teams. We conclude that a significant increase in data collection of high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall intensity, streamflow, and sediment loading in channels will help to guide future model development to quantify post-fire flood risk.     

Early Holocene drowned lagoonal deposits from the Kattegat, southern Scandinavia

Shallow seismic profiling indicated the presence of a drowned lagoon-barrier system formed during the transgression of the southern Kattegat, and investigations of core material have confirmed this. Studies of plant and animal macrofossils show that the lagoonal sediments contain a mixture of marine, brackish, lacustrine, telmatic and terrestrial taxa, and analyses of foraminifers indicate brackish-water conditions. Low oxygen isotope values obtained on shells of marine molluscs also point to lowered salinity. The lagoonal sediments are situated at depths between 24 and 35 m below present sea level. They are dated to between c. 10.5 cal. ka BP and c. 9.5 cal. ka BP, and reflect a period characterized by a moderate relative sea level rise. The lagoonal sediments are underlain by lateglacial glaciomarine clay and silt, which are separated from the Holocene deposits by an unconformity. The earliest Holocene sediments consist of littoral sand with gravel, stones and shells; these sediments were formed during the transgression of the area before the barrier island-lagoon system was developed. The lagoonal sediments are overlain by mud, which contains animal remains that indicate increasing water depths.     

An experimental study of the formation of cubanite (CuFe2S3) in primitive meteorites

The low‐temperature form of CuFe₂S₃, cubanite, has been identified in the CI chondrite and NASA Stardust mission collections. The presence of this mineral constrains the maximum temperature to 210 °C since the time of its formation. However, until now, the conditions under which cubanite forms were less well constrained. In order to refine the history of the time‐varying, low‐temperature fluids which existed on the CI‐chondrite parent body and Comet 81P/Wild 2 (Wild 2), we synthesized cubanite. The experimental synthesis of this mineral was achieved, for the first time, under low‐temperature aqueous conditions relevant to the CI‐chondrite parent body. Using a variant of in situ hydrothermal recrystallization, cubanite formed in aqueous experiments starting with temperatures of 150 and 200 °C, pH approximately 9, and oxygen fugacities corresponding to the iron‐magnetite buffer. The composition and structure of the cubanite were determined using electron microprobe and transmission electron microscopy techniques, respectively. The combined compositional, crystallographic, and experimental data allow us to place limits on the conditions under which the formation of cubanite is feasible, which in turn constrains the nature of the fluid phase on the CI‐chondrite parent body and Wild 2 when cubanite was forming.     

Microstructural evidence for a disequilibrium condensation origin for hibonite‐spinel inclusions in the ALHA77307 CO3.0 chondrite

Two hibonite‐spinel inclusions (CAIs 03 and 08) in the ALHA77307 CO3.0 chondrite have been characterized in detail using the focused ion beam sample preparation technique combined with transmission electron microscopy. These hibonite‐spinel inclusions are irregularly shaped and porous objects and consist of randomly oriented hibonite laths enclosed by aggregates of spinel with fine‐grained perovskite inclusions finally surrounded by a partial rim of diopside. Melilite is an extremely rare phase in this type of CAI and occurs only in one inclusion (CAI 03) as interstitial grains between hibonite laths and on the exterior of the inclusion. The overall petrologic and mineralogical observations suggest that the hibonite‐spinel inclusions represent high‐temperature condensates from a cooling nebular gas. The textural relationships indicate that hibonite is the first phase to condense, followed by perovskite, spinel, and diopside. Texturally, melilite condensation appears to have occurred after spinel, suggesting that the condensation conditions were far from equilibrium. The crystallographic orientation relationships between hibonite and spinel provide evidence of epitaxial nucleation and growth of spinel on hibonite surfaces, which may have lowered the activation energy for spinel nucleation compared with that of melilite and consequently inhibited melilite condensation. Hibonite contains abundant stacking defects along the (001) plane consisting of different ratios of the spinel and Ca‐containing blocks within the ideal hexagonal hibonite structure. This modification of the stacking sequence is likely the result of accommodation of excess Al in the gas into hibonite due to incomplete condensation of corundum from a cooling gas under disequilibrium conditions. We therefore conclude that these two hibonite‐spinel inclusions in ALHA77307 formed by high‐temperature condensation under disequilibrium conditions.     

40Ar/39Ar age of material returned from asteroid 25143 Itokawa

The Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143, Itokawa, brought back 2000 small particles, which most closely resemble material found in LL4‐6 chondrites. We report an ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 1.3 ± 0.3 Ga for a sample of Itokawa consisting of three grains with a total mass of ~2 μg. This age is lower than the >4.0 Ga ages measured for 75% of LL chondrites but close to one for Y‐790964 and its pairs. The flat ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar release spectrum of the sample suggests complete degassing 1.3 Ga ago. Recent solar heating in Itokawa's current orbit does not appear likely to have reset that age. Solar or impact heating 1.3 Ga ago could have done so. If impact heating was responsible, then the 1.3 Ga age sets an upper bound on the time at which the Itokawa rubble pile was assembled and suggests that rubble pile creation was an ongoing process in the inner solar system for at least the first 3 billion years of solar system history.     

Sphaeronectes pughi sp. nov., a new species of sphaeronectid calycophoran siphonophore from the subantarctic zone

A new species of sphaeronectid calycophoran siphonophore, Sphaeronectes pughi sp. nov. is described from material collected in the subantarctic zone, south of Australia. An identification key for sphaeronectid nectophores is provided, with illustrations of the eleven recognized species.     

Significance of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Permian/Triassic boundary sections

In this study the abundances of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs Table 1, I–XXI) have been measured throughout three Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) sections from Meishan (South China), Kap Stosch area (East Greenland) and Peace River Basin (Western Canada). Dibenzothiophene (I) and dibenzofuran (II) were found to decrease in abundance just before or shortly after the P/Tr transition in all three sections while perylene (III) was observed to increase in abundance at the onset of the main extinction horizon (bed 25) in Meishan. Perylene has been attributed to a wood degrading fungal source and, therefore, it seems possible these phenomena are related to the demise of land plants. Further, distinct patterns of various combustion-derived PAHs occurring in each section imply that forest fire events occurred within the Late Permian and Early Triassic. In the Meishan section high amounts of combustion-derived PAHs [pyrene (IV), fluoranthene (V), benzo[a]anthracene (VI), benzofluoranthenes (sum, i.e. VII), benzo[a]pyrene (VIII), benzo[e]pyrene (IX) and coronene (X)] occur within bed 25, also containing ash attributed to the fallout from massive volcanic eruptions in Siberia and/or China.     

River sections at the Byzovaya Palaeolithic site – keyholes into the late Quaternary of northern European Russia

Heggen, H. P., Svendsen, J. I. & Mangerud, J. 2009: River sections at the Byzovaya Palaeolithic site – keyholes into the late Quaternary of northern European Russia. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2009.00109.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. The geological history of northern European Russia over the past two glacial cycles is reconstructed from the stratigraphy in river bluffs along the upper reaches of the Pechora River. From a till bed near the base of the sections it is inferred that the Barents–Kara Ice Sheet covered the area during the late Saalian (MIS 6). After deglaciation, and prior to the last interglacial, the area was flooded by an ice‐dammed lake, suggesting that the Pechora Basin was blocked by a subsequent ice advance at the very end of the Saalian. Ice‐wedge casts and periglacial sediments reflect a pronounced cooling with formation of permafrost during the Early Weichselian (MIS 5d). An overlying thick sequence of shallow lacustrine sediments accumulated in the ice‐dammed Lake Komi, formed by the advancing Barents–Kara Ice Sheet 80–100 kyr BP (MIS 5b?). Following drainage of the lake, many of the older formations were eroded by fluvial activity. Animal remains found together with palaeolithic artefacts within debrisflow sediments at the base of one of the incised gullies yielded radiocarbon ages around 28 000–30 000 ¹⁴C yr BP (33–34 cal. kyr BP). The surface with traces of human activities was subsequently covered by aeolian sediments representing the northern extension of the European belt of periglacial coversand that accumulated in the cold and dry climate during the late Weichselian (MIS 2). The results of this work confirm the assumption that the last shelf‐centred ice sheet that covered this part of Russia occurred during the late Saalian (MIS 6), but that this glaciation was followed by a younger and less extensive ice advance that has not been described before. There are no indications that local glaciers originating in the Ural Mountains reached the Pechora River valley throughout the last two glacial cycles.     

SEISMIC VELOCITY ESTIMATION*

The accuracy of the two most common arrival time functions used in seismic velocity estimation is investigated. It is shown that the hyperbolic arrival time function is more accurate than the parabolic arrival time function for a horizontally layered elastic medium. An upper bound on the difference between the two arrival time functions is given. A maximum-likehood detector for estimating the arrival time of the signals is given. For the signal-in-noise model that is used the maximum-likelihood detector is equivalent to a least-squares detector which corresponds to using the signal energy as coherency measure. The semblance coefficient corresponds to a normalized least-squares detector. The semblance coefficient is very similar to a filter performance measure that is used in least-squares filter design.     

Simulating the lateral transport of ichthyoplankton in the Potomac estuary

Previous simulations of potential ichthyoplankton entrainment by power generating stations on the Potomac estuary have not included the influence of lateral transport in distributing eggs and larvae over the nursery area. Therefore, two-dimensional, vertically-averaged hydrodynamic and kinematic models of passive organism transport were developed to represent advective and dispersive processes near the proposed Douglas Point Nuclear Generating Station. Although the more refined model did not substantially alter the estimate of ichthyoplankton entrainment, it did reveal that lateral inhomogeneities in hydrodynamics could engender severalfold differences in entrainment probabilities on opposite sides of the estuary. Models of higher resolution and greater biological detail did not project greater total entrainment by the Douglas Point plant, because the volume of nontidal flow past the site was large in comparison to the proposed rate of cooling water withdrawal.