On the average rate of growth in sunspot number and the size of the sunspot cycle

The average rate of growth during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, defined here as the difference in smoothed sunspot number values between elapsed time (in months) t and sunspot minimum divided by t, is shown to correlate (r 0.78) with the size of the sunspot cycle, especially for t 18 months. Also, the maximum value of the average rate of growth is shown to highly correlate (r = 0.98) with the size of the cycle. Based on the first 18 months of the cycle, cycle 22 is projected to have an R(M) = 186.0 ± 27.2 (at the ± 1 level), and based on the first 24 months of the cycle, it is projected to have an R(M) = 201.0 ± 20.1 (at the ± 1 level). Presently, the average rate of growth is continuing to rise, having a value of about 4.5 at 24 months into the cycle, a value second only to that of cycle 19 (4.8 at t = 24 and a maximum value of 5.26 at t = 27). Using 4.5 as the maximum value of the average rate of growth for cycle 22, a lower limit can be estimated for R(M); namely R(M) for cycle 22 is estimated to be 164.0 (at the 97.5% level of confidence). Thus, these findings are consistent with the previous single variate predictions that project R(M) for cycle 22 to be one of the greatest on record, probably larger than cycle 21 (164.5) and near that of cycle 19 (201.3).     

On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number: A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

Precursor prediction techniques have generally performed well in predicting the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycles, based on cycles 10–21. Single variate methods based on minimum sunspot amplitude have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 9 out of 12 times, where a reliable prediction is defined as one having an observed maximum amplitude within the prediction interval (determined from the average error). On the other hand, single variate methods based on the size of the geomagnetic minimum have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 8 of 10 times (geomagnetic data are only available since about cycle 12). Bivariate prediction methods have, thus far, performed flawlessly, giving reliable predictions 10 out of 10 times (bivariate methods are based on sunspot and geomagnetic data). For cycle 22, single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) suggest a maximum amplitude of about 170 ± 25, while bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude of about 140 ± 15; thus, both techniques suggest that cycle 22 will be of smaller maximum amplitude than that observed during cycle 19, and possibly even smaller than that observed for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it is a + 2.6 cycle (maximum amplitude about 225). It appears then that either cycle 22 will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques (i.e., cycle 22 is an anomaly, a statistical outlier) or the deviation of cycle 22 relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months. Because cycle 22 is a large amplitude cycle, maximum smoothed sunspot number is expected to occur early in 1990 (between December 1989 and May 1990).     

On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the average rate of growth in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, one infers that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 ± 30 or 185 ± 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10–21 from the two fits.     

Bimodality and the Hale cycle

Because of the bimodal distribution of sunspot cycle periods, the Hale cycle (or double sunspot cycle) should show evidence of modulation between 20 and 24 yr, with the Hale cycle having an average length of about 22 yr. Indeed, such a modulation is observed. Comparison of consecutive pairs of cycles strongly suggests that even-numbered cycles are preferentially paired with odd-numbered following cycles. Systematic variations are hinted in both the Hale cycle period and R _sum (the sum of monthly mean sunspot numbers over consecutively paired sunspot cycles). The preferred even-odd cycle pairing suggests that cycles 22 and 23 form a new Hale cycle pair (Hale cycle 12), that cycle 23 will be larger than cycle 22 (in terms of R _M, the maximum smoothed sunspot number, and of the individual cycle value of R _sum), and that the length of Hale cycle 12 will be longer than 22 yr. Because of the strong correlation (r = 0.95) between individual sunspot cycle values of R _sum and R _M, having a good estimate of R _Mfor the present sunspot cycle (22) allows one to predict its R _sum, which further allows an estimation of both R _Mand R _sum for cycle 23 and an estimation of R _sum for Hale cycle 12. Based on Wilson's bivariate fit (r = 0.98), sunspot cycle 22 should have an R _Mequal to 144.4 ± 27.3 (at the 3- level), implying that its R _sum should be about 8600 ± 2200; such values imply that sunspot cycle 23 should have an R _sum of about 10500 ± 2000 and an R _Mof about 175 ± 40, and that Hale cycle 12 should have an R _sum of about 19100 ± 3000.     

The solar dynamo and the convective rolls

The most sophisticated attempts to model the convection zone have yielded results in which the angular velocity increases outwards and the largest scales of convection take the form of banana cells aligned with the rotation axis. However, not only does the sign of the angular velocity gradient present problems for dynamo theory, but attempts to detect banana type cells have so far been unsuccessful. Although by no means conclusive, current tracer, spectropic, and radiative data all tend to support models of azimuthal rolls encircling the axis as the fundamental mode.It is shown here that convective upflows and downflows are preferentially generated along the rotation axis and thus initially the large-scale eddies may take the form of azimuthal rolls surrounding the poles. It is then shown that such a system may generate a progressive dynamo wave propagating from pole to equator. Since Parker has shown that an azimuthal magnetic toroid can generate a thermal shadow above it which suppresses its buoyancy, the corresponding temperature deficit so formed becomes the natural site for the downflow of the azimuthal rolls. Thus as the dynamo propagates towards the equator, so will the convective rolls. Finally the compatibility of the most recent helioseismology data with the azimuthal roll model is discussed.Solar Cycle Workshop Paper.     

Diurnal variations in,and influences on,concentrations of particulate and dissolved arsenic and metals in the mildly alkaline Wallkill River,New Jersey,USA

Diurnal variations in particulate and dissolved As and metal concentrations were observed in mildly alkaline water from a wetlands site on the Wallkill River in northwestern New Jersey. The site, underlain by glacial sediments over dolomite bedrock, is 10 km downstream from a mined area of the Franklin Marble, host to Zn ores, also As and Mn minerals. In mid-September 2005, maxima and minima in dissolved-oxygen-concentration and pH, typically caused by photosynthesis and respiration, occurred at 2000 and 0800 hours. Concentrations of dissolved As (1.52–1.95 μg/L) peaked at dusk (2000 hours), whereas dissolved Mn and Zn concentrations (76.5–96.9 and 8.55–12.8 μg/L, respectively) were lowest at dusk and peaked at 1000 hours. These opposing cycles probably reflect sorption and desorption of As (an anion), and Mn and Zn (cations) as pH varied throughout the 24-h period. Doubly-peaked cycles of B, Cl, SO₄, and nutrients also were observed; these may result from upstream discharges of septic-system effluent. Both recoverable amd particulate Al, Fe, Mn, and Zn concentrations peaked between 0200 and 0600 hours. The particulate metals cycle, with perturbations at 0400 hours, may be influenced by biological activity.     

Common cause or common concern? The role of common lands in the post-productivist countryside

Summary The aim of this paper is to contribute towards a better understanding of the contemporary position of commons as a land resource, and to evaluate whether commons have a distinct role to play in today's 'post-productivist' countryside. Following the government's recent recognition of the multi-functional role of commons, the paper sets out to investigate whether this can be achieved through existing agri-environmental schemes. A case study of commons in the Cambrian Mountains (Wales) enables an assessment of the compatibility of one recent agri-environmental scheme, the ESA scheme, with commons management. It is concluded that new legislation and policy are needed, and that agri-environmental policy may provide an opportunity to develop a framework within which the management of common land can be improved to meet conservation and amenity as well as farming objectives.     

Changes in velocity profiles at roughness transitions in coarse grained channels

Heterogeneous coarse grained channels are often characterized by local transitions in bed surface roughness. Distinct spatial zones in terms of grain size have been reported, for example sand ribbons and bedload sheets. The transition from areas of finer to coarser grained surface sediment is often abrupt. However, the effects of these transitions on the shape of the velocity profile and associated shear velocity and roughness length estimates have not been investigated in detail in coarse grained channels. This paper therefore examines the combined effects of a sudden change in surface roughness and of superimposed scales of resistancé on the structure of the turbulent boundary layer. Measurements along roughness transitions from smooth to rough beds were conducted in a flume using artificial roughness features and in a natural gravel bed river. Immediately at the transition from a zone of close packed roughness to a rougher section dominated by obstacles superimposed on the more or less uniform roughness surface, boundary shear stress and roughness length increase considerably. Downstream from this transition, velocity profiles become concave upwards. Downstream and upstream sections show significant differences in terms of near bed velocities (deceleration downstream of the transition), velocity gradient and turbulence intensity of the streamwise velocity component. Comparing the mean velocity profiles corresponding to these two different roughness surfaces gives some indication of the proportion of total shear velocity (or shear stress) associated with the pressure drag produced by large and isolated obstacles.     

Measuring surface-layer fluxes of heat and momentum using optical scintillation

An experiment is described showing that an optical scintillation instrument gives reliable values of heat and momentum fluxes in the surface layer, subject to the usual restrictions of homogeneity and steady state. This instrument measures the turbulence inner scale and refractive-index structure parameter, which are used to obtain the fluxes from Monin-Obukhov similarity relationships. The instrument gives space-averaged values over a propagation path that can range in length from tens to hundreds of meters. The history of the use of optical propagation to estimate fluxes is reviewed.