Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track?

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings.     

Impact of Climate Change on the Regional Hydrology – Scenario-Based Modelling Studies in the German Rhine Catchment

The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area of approx. 110,000 km². This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a (“business as usual”) are then used as input to the method of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However, the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods.     

Porphyry-Type Mineralization at Selogiri Area, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

The Selogiri area, situated in Wonogiri regency, Central Java, is one of several gold prospecting areas in the Southern areas Mountain Range in Java, Indonesia. Three types of dioritic–andesitic intrusive rocks occur in the Selogiri area, namely, hornblende andesite porphyry, hornblende diorite porphyry and hornblende diorite, exposed in a half‐circular depression where volcanic breccia and tuff are widely distributed. The occurrence of stockwork quartz veinlets and associated with magnetite and malachite coating along the cracks in the diorite porphyry suggests porphyry type mineralization. This is also supported by the occurrence of polyphase hypersaline fluid inclusions in the stockwork veinlet quartz. Small‐scale miners are mining NS‐trending quartz veins for gold associated with base metal sulfides. These veins are probably epithermal‐type mineralization that overprinted porphyry‐type mineralization. The Neogene intermediate to silicic hydrous magmatism in Java could have formed the porphyry‐type mineralization in Selogiri, as in the rest of the Sunda–Banda arc.     

Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs

On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO₂-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO₂ gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO₂-eq. to be technically feasible, even given relatively high baseline scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels, global emissions need to peak within the first two decades. The net present value of abatement costs for the B2 baseline scenario (a medium scenario) increases from 0.2% of cumulative GDP to 1.1% as the shift is made from 650 to 450 ppm. On the other hand, the probability of meeting a two-degree target increases from 0%–10% to 20%–70%. The mitigation scenarios lead to lower emissions of regional air pollutants but also to increased land use. The uncertainty in the cost estimates is at least in the order of 50%, with the most important uncertainties including land-use emissions, the potential for bio-energy and the contribution of energy efficiency. Furthermore, creating the right socio-economic and political conditions for mitigation is more important than any of the technical constraints.     

Evaluation of susceptibility for terrain collapse and subsidence in karst areas,municipality of Iraquara,Chapada Diamantina (BA), Brazil

The morphological evolution of the karstic systems is associated with a set of physical and chemical processes, triggered by the dissolution of the rocks, related to percolation of groundwater and surface water, which consequently open underground voids and carve out peculiar forms of relief. Due to environmental and geotechnical aspects, this system is naturally more fragile and vulnerable than other natural systems and, therefore, has increasingly received the attention of the scientific community over the past decades. The objective of the study was to delimit zones with varying degrees of susceptibility for collapses and subsidence of sinkholes in the municipality of Iraquara, Chapada Diamantina (BA), Brazil, and to understand their geological and morphological determinant factors. Geological data, karst phenomenon map, and visual analysis in the field were used to categorize zones with different types of susceptibilities to the nucleation of new sinkholes based on a Hazard Index. This index was defined from the sum of geological hazard factors, lineament density, and sinkhole density. The areas that presented the highest susceptibility for terrain collapse and subsidence corresponded to regions where carbonate rocks outcrop, with high density of photolineaments and 2.62 sinkholes/km². Processes associated with terrain collapse and subsidence in karst areas consisted of a combination of various factors, hindering precise predictions. However, zones of different types of susceptibilities to terrain collapse and subsidence can be delimited when the relationships between these processes and their factors are understood. The Hazard Index proposed does not provide quantitative values for the probability of hazard susceptibility, but rather indicates areas that are more susceptible to terrain subsidence and collapse.     

Reworked Middle Jurassic sandstones as a marker for Upper Cretaceous basin inversion in Central Europe—a case study for the U–Pb detrital zircon record of the Upper Cretaceous Schmilka section and their implication for the sedimentary cover of the Lausitz Block (Saxony,Germany)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Saxonian–Bohemian Cretaceous Basin (Elbsandsteingebirge, E Germany and Czech Republic, Elbtal Group) comprises Upper Cretaceous sedimentary rocks...