Theoretical meteorology and the operational meteorologist

Abstract

Values of incoming solar and long‐wave radiation measured at the vessel Quadra during the three phases of GATE are used to assess the daily performance of three models, one for solar and two for long‐wave radiation. The solar radiation model, which uses data on precipitable water and cloud amount at three levels in the atmosphere performed satisfactorily during the first phase but gave poor results in the other two phases when cumulonimbus became more dominant. Both the flux‐emissivity approach using measured and interpolated Upper air data and Paltridge's empirical procedure produced estimates of long‐wave radiation which compared very closely with the measurements.     

Airborne radar and in-situ observations of a shallow stratus with drizzle

Observations were made of a shallow stratus of upslope origin using an aircraft equipped with insitu probes and with a vertically-pointing radar of 3-mm wavelength. A cloud layer of 300 m thickness was found below the inversion; an additional layer of 100 m thickness was located within the inversion. The coldest temperature within the cloud was -2°C and the cloud contained no ice particles. Drizzle drops up to 180 Am were present in both cloud layers.The observations reveal precipitation and air motion structures of approximately 1 km horizontal dimensions. The origin of this organization appears to be weak convection. In addition, mixing played an important role in forming the cloud droplet and drizzle drop size distributions.     

Frequency response corrections for eddy correlation systems

Simplified expressions describing the frequency response of eddy correlation systems due to sensor response, path-length averaging, sensor separation and signal processing are presented. A routine procedure for estimating and correcting for the frequency response loss in flux and variance measurements is discussed and illustrated by application to the Institute of Hydrology's Hydra eddy correlation system.The results show that flux loss from such a system is typically 5 to 10% for sensible and latent heat flux, but can be much larger for momentum flux and variance measurements in certain conditions.A microcomputer program is included which, with little modification, can be used for estimating flux loss from other eddy correlation systems with different or additional sensors.     

Boundary-layer effects on cold fronts at a coastline

The present note discusses one physical mechanism which may contribute to cold air channelling, manifest as a frontal bulge on a surface-analysis chart, in the coastal region of Victoria in southeast Australia. This involves the modification of boundary-layer air in both offshore (prefrontal) and onshore (postfrontal) flow, and the effect on cross-frontal thermal contrast. The problem is discussed in terms of a north-south-oriented cold front behaving as an atmospheric gravity current, propagating along an east-west-oriented coastline, in the presence of a prefrontal offshore stream.     

Spectra of temperature derivatives in the atmospheric surface layer

Measured spectra ofθ _x,θ _y,θ _z, the derivatives of temperature in streamwise, lateral and vertical directions, respectively, indicate that the spectral densities ofθ _z andθ _y are nearly similar but significantly different from the spectral density ofθ _x. The high-frequency parts of the three spectra satisfy, in a qualitative sense, local isotropy requirements. In the high-frequency end of the inertial subrange, the relative behaviour of spectra ofθ _x,θ _y andθ _z is also consistent with local isotropy.     

Numerical simulation of the development of vortices over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau

Summary Some of the vortices which develop over the Tibetan plateau during summer give rise to severe weather over eastern China. These weather developments can be difficult to forecast, but have been simulated successfully in a recently developed numerical model. It will be shown that different vortices respond differently to topographic effects, to nonlinear processes and to sensible and latent heating in their formation, maintenance, and motion. Elevated terrain appears to enhance the influence of thermodynamic processes, block airflow, and increase frictional dissipation.Sensible heating sometimes collaborates with topography in blocking cold air intrusions and is not only a function of terrain elevation but also of the synoptic situation. Without the input of latent heating, vortices over the eastern part of the Tibetan plateau tend to degenerate.

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Numerische Simulation von Wirbelbildungen über dem Hochland von Tibet

Zusammenfassung Einige der sich im Sommer über dem Hochland von Tibet entwickelnden Wirbel verursachen Unwetter in Ostchina. Die Vorhersage dieser Entwicklung kann schwierig sein, sie werden aber von einem kürzlich vorgestellten numerischen Modell erfolgreich simuliert. Es wird gezeigt, daß verschiedene Wirbel verschieden auf die Orographie, auf nichtlineare Vorgänge sowie auf fühlbare und latente Wärme in ihrer Entstehung, Erhaltung und Bewegung reagieren. Ein Hochland scheint den Einfluß thermodynamischer Vorgänge zu verstärken, Strömungen zu blockieren und die Reibungsdissipation zu steigern.Die fühlbare Wärme verhindert manchmal gemeinsam mit der Topographie Kaltlufteinbrüche, hängt aber nicht nur von der Hochland-sondern auch von der synoptischen Situation ab. Ohne latente Wärme neigen Wirbel über dem Ostteil des Hochlandes von Tibet zur Degeneration.

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With 22 Figures     

Characteristics of precipitation in northern Mauritania and its links with sea surface temperature

This paper deals with the periodic fluctuation of precipitation at three meteorological stations (Atar, Chenguitti, and Akjoujt) in the Adrar and Inchiri provinces in northern Mauritania and its links with sea surface temperature (SST). Trends for these three meteorological stations were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall (MK) nonparametric test, regression analysis, and autocorrelation for persistence analysis. The MK test showed a significant decreasing trend for Akjoujt and an insignificant trend for the other rainfall time series. However, the decreasing linear regression trends were highly significant for the different time series. On the other hand, persistence analysis indicated the presence of a linear Markov type. The cycles found by power spectrum analysis ranged from 0.5 years to about 11 years. The possibility of a connection between precipitation in this region and sunspot numbers was suggested. SST of the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea have significant cross-correlations with precipitation in the study area. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect was found to be marginal.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.