Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Electron paramagnetic resonance,optical absorption,and magnetic circular dichroism studies of the CO 3 − molecular-ion in irradiated natural beryl

Room temperature X-irradiation of some natural beryls produced several new absorption lines in the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectrum, a known series of optical absorption lines in the 500–700 nm range, and a shift of the absorption edge to lower energies. Several of the new EPR lines and part of the irradiation-induced shift of the absorption edge disappeared after a few days at room temperature, and were not examined in detail. However, three of the paramagnetic centres responsible for the new EPR lines were stable at room temperature and two of these have previously been identified as atomic hydrogen and the methyl radical, CH₃. These species were stable to ～150 and ～450°C respectively. The third stable species, hitherto unreported, showed a single-line EPR spectrum of axial symmetry, with g∥=2.0051 and g⊥=2.0152. This spectrum was found to be intensity-correlated with the series of optical bands in the 500–700 nm range, after thermal bleaching at 175°C. The EPR and optical spectra are therefore assigned to the same species. It is argued that this species is the CO ₃ ^? molecular ion, located in the widest part of the structural channel and aligned with the plane of the molecule perpendicular to the c axis. The EPR spectrum is consistent with a ² A′₂ ground state of a CO ₃ ^? molecule with trigonal symmetry, and this requires that the optical transition has a ² A′₂ → ² E′ character. Most of the features in the optical spectrum can be assigned to coupling of a totally symmetric mode of frequency ～1020 cm^?1 onto a zero-phonon line at 14,490 cm^?1 and a second weaker line at 16,020 cm^?1. However, both of these two fundamental lines are structured, and the two components show strong temperature-dependent derivative-shaped magnetic circular dichroism (MCD). Furthermore, the overall sign of the MCD for the line at 16,020 cm^?1 is opposite to that at 14,490 cm^?1. The separation (～120 cm^?1) of the two components of the 14,490 cm^?1 line is much larger than that expected from spin-orbit interaction, and the origin of this splitting is not yet understood.     

The stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer: Processes,models, observations,and simulations

After briefly reviewing the observational data on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer, the chemical and physical processes that are likely to fix the properties of the layer are discussed. We present appropriate continuity equations for aerosol particles, and show how to solve the equations on a digital computer. Simulations of the unperturbed aerosol layer by various published models are discussed and the sensitivity of layer characteristics to variations in several aerosol model parameters is studied. We discuss model applications to anthropogenic pollution problems and demonstrate that moderate levels of aerospace activity (supersonic transport and space shuttle operations) will probably have only a negligible effect on global climate. Finally, we evaluate the possible climatic effect of a ten-fold increase in the atmospheric abundance of carbonyl sulfide.     

Silicic differentiates of abyssal oceanic magmas: Evidence for late-magmatic vapor transport of potassium

Massive, nearly holocrystalline dolerites from DSDP Hole 417D contain from 0.5 to 1.5% of granophyric patches composed mainly of Na-plagioclase and quartz. These patches are compositionally similar to other crystalline silicic rocks from oceanic spreading centers and differ from rarer abyssal silicic glasses. Crystalline varieties withSiO₂60wt.% generally haveNa/K>10, whereas silicic glasses have Na/K in the range 3–6. While crystal fractionation readily accounts for the Na₂O and K₂O contents of abyssal silicic glasses, both the 417D granophyres and other crystalline abyssal silicic rocks have much lower K₂O than that predicted by any reasonable crystal-liquid fractionation model. We propose that high-temperature vapor phase transport is responsible for removal of potassium during late-stage crystallization of these rocks. This allows for the formation of cogenetic silicic glassy and crystalline rocks with greatly different Na/K ratios. These observations and interpretations lead to a more confident assignment of high Na/K silicic rocks of oceanic and ophiolitic environments to a cogenetic origin with basaltic oceanic crust.     

阿德朗达克-西魁北克地震带地壳三维速度结构成像

根据在阿德朗达克-西魁北克地震带及其邻近地区的59台短周期数字地震仪记录的直达P波走时观测值,用地震层析成像方法反演了该地区地壳三维速度结构.结果表明,地壳上层（0-5km）在阿德朗达克穹隆山的中南部地区出现正速度异常;第二层（5-10km）及第三层（10-15km）的速度横向变化较小,介质相对比较均匀;第四层（15-25km）出现显著的速度异常,一个是位于地震带中部的正速度异常（+4％）,它与布格重力正异常一致;另一个是位于阿德朗达克穹隆山下的负速度异常（-4％）.结合已有的地质及地球物理资料进行对比,可以认为阿德朗达克是一个正在发展的穹隆上升山,但其热源前锋尚未到达地面的大陆热点.     

A comparison of methods to assess long-term changes in Sonoran Desert vegetation

Knowledge about the condition of vegetation cover and composition is critical for assessing the structure and function of ecosystems. To effectively quantify the impacts of a rapidly changing environment, methods to track long-term trends of vegetation must be precise, repeatable, and time- and cost-efficient. Measuring vegetation cover and composition in arid and semiarid regions is especially challenging because vegetation is typically sparse, discontinuous, and individual plants are widely spaced. To meet the goal of long-term vegetation monitoring in the Sonoran Desert and other arid and semiarid regions, we determined how estimates of plant species, total vegetation, and soil cover obtained using a widely-implemented monitoring protocol compared to a more time- and resource-intensive plant census. We also assessed how well this protocol tracked changes in cover through 82 years compared to the plant census. Results from the monitoring protocol were comparable to those from the plant census, despite low and variable plant species cover. Importantly, this monitoring protocol could be used as a rapid, “off-the shelf” tool for assessing land degradation (or desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems.     

Analysis of the spectral features of a recent supernova 1987n

We present an attempt to analyse the spectra of SN 1987n in NGC 7606, covering a period of 10 days from the time of maximum brightness. The velocities in the rest frame of NGC 7606 and the depths of the spectral lines at maximum light are very close to those of SN 1981b in NGC 4536, slight differences being nevertheless present. A distance to NGC 7606 of 46±11 Mpc for anH ₀ value of 50 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 is inferred from Pskovskii's relation.The analysis carried out within a standard simple model of spectral synthesis involves a high uncertainty in the abundance determinations for the intermediate-mass elements quoted. This uncertainty arises on the one hand from the free choice of the excitation temperature and from the sensitivity to changes in the excitation temperature of the depths of the strongest lines of those elements and, on the other hand, from the impossibility of obtaining within this model an estimate of other abundances — He, O, Na, S — which have NLTE populations.The analysis developed in a new model based (as is the standard one) on Sobolev's approximation but allowing for a more realistic continuum treatment points to an important attenuation effect on the radiation in the lines, due to the continuum scattering, which can also affect abundance determinations.