Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

Star counts in M15 onU,B andV plates

We present new counts of stars in M15, using plates inB, V andU. We are able to explore relatively close to the central parts of the cluster (0.1 pc) and we derive the best fitting parameters for the star distribution.     

Decay of a highly eccentric satellite

The re-entry phase of a highly eccentric satellite is discussed. Numerical simulations allowing the prediction of the exact date of re-entry of a highly eccentric satellite are exposed.It is shown that under very particular circumstances the life of the satellite can be extended by a few days. The number of final revolutions of the rapidly contracting orbit depends critically on the air density between 70 km and 100 km.Re-entry of the European scientific satellite HEOS-1 predicted for 28 October, 1975 is near such a situation.     

Über den Eisengehalt von Alumosilikaten aus Quarzknauern

Zusammenfassung Der Eisengehalt von Andalusiten und Disthenen aus Quarzknauern im Gebiet des Ötztaler—Stubaier Altkristallins wurde regional untersucht. Der Gehalt and Gesamteisen in primären Disthen liegt zwischen 0,17 und 0,22 Gew.% Fe₂O₃, während primäre Andalusite zwischen 0,26 und 1,93 Gew.% Fe₂O₃ schwanken. Dieser Unterschied in den Andalusiten wird auf ein wechselndes Angebot von Fe₂O₃ aus dem Nachbargestein der Knauern zurückgeführt.Ein Zusammenhang zwischen dem Eisengehalt der Andalusite und den verschiedenen Umwandlungsstadien Andalusit—Disthen konnte nicht nachgewiesen werden.

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On the iron content of alumosilicates in quartz nodules

Summary A determination of the regional distribution of the ironcontent of andalusites and kyanites in quartz-segregations of the Oetztal—Stubai crystalline complex gave values of 0.17–0.22% for the total iron in primary kyanite and 0.26–1.93% in andalusite. This difference is probably due to a variation in the Fe₂O₃-content in the country rocks of the quartz veins. No relationship between the iron-content in andalusite and the different stages of transformation from andalusite to kyanite could be established.

     

Ecological-geochemical assessment of the state of the Volga source of water supply to Moscow

Long-term observational data (1992?C2009) on heavy metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, V, Mo, Co, Fe, and Mn) content of different links in the Ivankovo Reservoir ecosystem are used to consider the regularities in the distribution and behavior of heavy metals in the system anthropogenic pollution sources-reservoir and its drainage area, thus enabling the assessment of the pollution level of the Volga Source of water supply to Moscow.     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.