Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Design of stable drainage networks in upland forestry plantations

Erosion of man-made, forestry drainage channels occurs when the plough cuts through the surface peat layer into the underlying erodible mineral soil. A procedure is developed, based on hydraulic considerations, which will allow the drainage engineer to design stable drainage networks in upland forestry plantations. An example design chart is given for an erodible sandy loam type soil.     

Noble gases and meteorites

Abstract— Noble gases repeatedly have served to widen the scope of meteorite research. During the first half century of such measurements, the emphasis was on the determination of U, Th/He-gas retention ages of iron meteorites, which is the most unsuitable class of meteorites for such studies. With the realization that the He in these meteorites results from the interaction of cosmic rays with meteoritic matter, meteorites became to be used as “the poor man's space probe” that yielded information on the constancy in time and space of the cosmic radiation. Another widening of scope came with the discovery of extremely high noble gas contents in the outermost layers of the individual grains that make up stony meteorites. These gases are of solar origin; they have been implanted as low-energy solar wind (SW) or as solar energetic particles (SEP) into the grains before their compaction. Presently they offer the only opportunity to precisely measure the isotopic composition of solar matter and to learn about potential changes of the Sun in time. Stony meteorites of the “carbonaceous” variety contain “stardust” that carries the undiluted nucleosynthesis products of individual stars that yield incredibly detailed information concerning the parameters that prevailed during the synthesis.     

X-ray absorption in Seyfert 2 galaxies

We have studied the correlation among X-ray absorption, optical reddening and nuclear dust morphology in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) the Balmer decrement and the amount of X-ray absorption are anticorrelated over a wide range of column density,     – the correlation no longer applies to Compton-thick objects     , although they span a comparable range in Balmer decrement; (ii) Compton-thin Seyfert 2s seem to prefer nuclear environments, which are rich in dust on scales of hundreds of parsecs. On the other hand, Compton-thick Seyferts indifferently exhibit 'dust-poor' and 'dust-rich' environments. These results support an extension of the Seyfert unification scenario (as recently proposed by Matt ), where Compton-thick Seyfert 2s are observed through compact 'torii', whereas Compton-thin ones are obscured by dust on much larger scales.     

Zonal Differences in Jupiter's Atmosphere from Continuum CCD Photometry of Its Disk

Based on our 1997 observations with a CCD camera and narrow-band filters attached to the 1-m Assy Obsev vatory telescope, we extensively study the latitudinal variations in limb darkening and normal albedo on Jupiter's disk at wavelengths of 387, 445, 502, 619, and 702 nm. In addition, we carried out observations in 1998 with broad-band red, green, and blue filters. Apart from a general regularity—the increase in darkening coefficient with normal albedo of Jupiter's cloud cover—there is an appreciable scatter of darkening coefficients for the same albedo, which is most pronounced in the ultraviolet. This scatter may result from differences in the optical depth of the aerosol haze above the clouds. The lack of any wavelength dependence of the darkening coefficients is confirmed for Jupiter's polar regions, while at other latitudes, they decrease with decreasing wavelength.     

Oxygen isotopic compositions and origins of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions and chondrules

Abstract— Primary minerals in calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs), Al‐rich and ferromagnesian chondrules in each chondrite group have δ¹⁸O values that typically range from ?50 to +5%0. Neglecting effects due to minor mass fractionations, the oxygen isotopic data for each chondrite group and for micrometeorites define lines on the three‐isotope plot with slopes of 1.01 ± 0.06 and intercepts of ?2 ± 1. This suggests that the same kind of nebular process produced the ¹⁶O variations among chondrules and CAIs in all groups. Chemical and isotopic properties of some CAIs and chondrules strongly suggest that they formed from solar nebula condensates. This is incompatible with the existing two‐component model for oxygen isotopes in which chondrules and CAIs were derived from heated and melted ¹⁶O‐rich presolar dust that exchanged oxygen with ¹⁶O‐poor nebular gas. Some FUN CAIs (inclusions with isotope anomalies due to fractionation and unknown nuclear effects) have chemical and isotopic compositions indicating they are evaporative residues of presolar material, which is incompatible with ¹⁶O fractionation during mass‐independent gas phase reactions in the solar nebula. There is only one plausible reason why solar nebula condensates and evaporative residues of presolar materials are both enriched in ¹⁶O. Condensation must have occurred in a nebular region where the oxygen was largely derived from evaporated ¹⁶O‐rich dust. A simple model suggests that dust was enriched (or gas was depleted) relative to cosmic proportions by factors of ～10 to >50 prior to condensation for most CAIs and factors of 1–5 for chondrule precursor material. We infer that dust‐gas fractionation prior to evaporation and condensation was more important in establishing the oxygen isotopic composition of CAIs and chondrules than any subsequent exchange with nebular gases. Dust‐gas fractionation may have occurred near the inner edge of the disk where nebular gases accreted into the protosun and Shu and colleagues suggest that CAIs formed.     

Stellar CCD Photometry: New Approach Principles and Application

A new approach is proposed and developed to handle pre-processed CCD frames in order to identify stellar images and derive their relevant parameters. The present method relies on: 1) identifying stellar images and assigning approximate positions of their centres using artificial intelligence techniques, 2) accurate determination of the centre coordinates applying an elementary statistical concept and 3) estimating the image peak intensity as a stellar magnitude measure employing a simple numerical analysis approach. The method has been coded for personal computer users. A CCD frame of the star cluster M67 was adopted as a test case. The results obtained are discussed in comparison with the DAOPHOTII ones and the corresponding published data. Exact coincidence has been found between both results except very few cases. These exceptions have been discussed in view of both methods' bases and the cluster plates. It has been realized that the method suggested exhibits very simple, extremely fast and high precise approach in stellar CCD photometry domain. Moreover, it is more capable for handling blended and distorted stellar images than the DAOPHOTII. These characteristics show the usefulness of the present method in some astronomical applications such as auto-focusing and auto-guiding sensing approaches beside the main purpose, viz. stellar photometry. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Variable stars,photoelectric photometry,science education,and the A.A.V.S.O.

The role of amateurs and small-scale equipment in astronomical photometry is reviewed. The value of suitably selected projects for both research and educational purposes is stressed. Recent technical developments are noted, and a brief extrapolation to possible future arrangements included.Keynote address at the conference