Variability of hydrodynamic load predictions for a tension leg platform

A survey of diffraction/radiation analyses has been performed on behalf of the International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress, Committee I.2. This paper presents the results from the survey, including data from 17 organisations plotted in a common format. The variability of the computed hydrodynamic loads and responses is discussed, and it is concluded that there is a degree of uncertainty in results predicted on the basis of commonly used idealisations. Even in long period waves the variability between the computed results is considerable. To obtain reliable results at the shorter periods associated with heave, pitch and roll resonances of a deep water TLP, much finer meshes than those used by most of the participating organisations would be required.     

Model estimates for the mean gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere under the conditions of the present-day climate and its changes expected in the 21st century

Annual mean fluxes of CO₂ and oxygen across the sea surface are estimated with the use of numerical modeling for several regions located in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio zones. The present-day climatic conditions and the climatic conditions expected in the middle and at the end of the 21st century are considered. Specific features of gas exchange under a strong wind that are associated with gas exchange by bubbles and with changes in the air-water difference of the gas concentrations were taken into account in the calculations. The estimates obtained differ substantially from the results based on the traditional approach, which disregards the above features. A considerable increase in the absorption of CO₂ by the ocean, which is mainly caused by the continuing increase in the CO₂ concentration in the air during its small changes in the ocean, is expected in the 21st century. At the same time, no trends are revealed in the annual mean fluxes of oxygen across the ocean surface. The conclusion is made that, in calculations of CO₂ absorption by the world ocean, it is necessary to take into account both specific features of gas transfer under a strong wind and an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂.     

Basement structure and sedimentary cover seismostratigraphy in the northern part of the Japan Basin in the region of the Tarasov Rise (Sea of Japan)

The results of continuous seismic profiling thermodynamics performed in the northern part of the Japan Basin in the region of the Tarasov Rise and the data of a micropaleontological examination of the diatom remains encountered in the sediment samples from the rise and continental slope are presented. In the area studied, the topography of the acoustic basement features a vast rise (plateau) buried under the sedimentary cover outlined by the depth contour 5.8 s. The plateau has a relatively smooth top surface crossed by a series of rises of the acoustic basement. The two largest rises are represented by the ridges of the Tarasov Rise. The plateau is separated from the continental slope by a depression in the acoustic basement with a depth up to 6.8 s. From the end of the Middle Miocene up to the beginning of the Paleocene, the region of the plateau represented an area of active volcanism; it coincided in time with the stage of subsidence of the floor of the acoustic basement depression. At the end of the Late Miocene, the ridges of the Tarasov Rise started to sink. In the Pliocene, this process accelerated, and, at the beginning of the Pleistocene, it stopped. In the Middle Miocene-Early Pleistocene time, the portion of the continental slope adjacent to the plateau remained stable and suffered no significant vertical movements.     

Major variability modes and wind patterns over the Sea of Japan and adjacent areas

The expansion of wind fields observed at fixed times (four times daily) in complex empirical orthogonal functions is performed for the Japan Sea area (34°–53° N, 127°–143° E). The wind fields are taken from the 1998–2004 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with better spatial resolution (1° × 1°) than the standard product, which are publicly available on the Internet. Major modes of wind variability in the Japan Sea area are identified. The modes determine a general direction of air-mass transport throughout a year, zonal and meridional modulation, and a cyclonic and an anticyclonic eddy component. Objective classification of wind fields with respect to the prevailing flow direction is performed, and wind stress and wind-curl patterns are obtained for major events in the cold and warm periods of the year. The pattern obtained can be used in hydrodynamic numerical models of the general circulation of the Japan Sea.     

The buckling of plastic oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure

The paper presents a theoretical and an experimental investigation into the buckling of seven oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure. Four of the shells were made in glass reinforced plastic and three were made from a thermosetting plastic called solid urethane plastic. All the vessels were tested to destruction. The theoretical study was made with the aid of a non-linear finite element solution, where both geometrical and material non-linearity were allowed for. Good agreement was found between experiment and theory for all the vessels. The very oblate domes failed axisymmetrically. Theoretical convergence was good for the more oblate domes but it was not as good as for the less oblate domes. This may have been because the less oblate domes did not fail in a classical axisymmetric manner as was expected. This work is of much importance in ocean engineering.     

Analysis of correlations between time series with the use of the phase spectrum

In connection with the problem of revealing cause-effect relations among different climatic characteristics, methods for determining the dependence between time series on the basis of selected auto-and cross-covariance functions and periodograms expressed in terms of the Fourier coefficients of the initial series are discussed. Real time series do not always satisfy the conditions of statistical stationarity, so that their analysis requires a combination of statistical and deterministic approaches. The possibility of using the above numerical characteristics in relation to such series is considered. Characteristic features of describing finite segments of time series with the use of their Fourier coefficients is studied in detail. The main emphasis is on the determination of the time shifts (delays) at which the covariance between the series is maximal. The problems that appear during a practical implementation of the periodogram method for shift estimation are discussed. A previously unknown formula that is necessary for further studies and relates the Fourier transform of a selected correlation function to the periodogram of the series is derived.     

Water vapor in the atmosphere over the northern Tien Shan

Refined data of systematic measurements of total water vapor in the atmosphere from May 1980 to April 2005 are presented. The data were obtained at the Issyk Kul atmospheric-monitoring station by the method of solar molecular-absorption spectroscopy. Over 25 years, the annual mean water-vapor content in the atmosphere increased by 4.5% at a mean rate of increase of 0.18% per year. However, the water-vapor content decreased in the last five years. The results of statistical processing of experimental data (general statistical characteristics, correlation coefficients, composite oscillations) are described. A refined model is proposed for forecasts of temporal variations in the monthly mean and annual mean water-vapor contents for the coming years. The model includes a linear trend and the sum of oscillations with periods close to the periods of a number of well-known geophysical phenomena. Regression equations are proposed to relate the water-vapor content in the atmospheric column to the surface temperature and absolute humidity.     

The differences between a wing and a planing plate in two-dimensional flow

The normal force coefficient on a flat planing surface having arbitrary heave and pitch motion in two-dimensional flow is compared with the lift coefficient of a thin wing in an infinite fluid. Despite the totally different derivations, they are found to be identical (at large Froude numbers and low trim angles and allowing for the wing's interaction with twice as much fluid) at low reduced frequencies. For higher frequency motions, the wing's angle of attack induced lift and its pitch and heave damping are less than those of a planing surface, but the acceleration terms remain identical. The differences at the higher reduced frequencies are due to the fact that, in invisad irrotational flow, the planning plate cannot leave a vortex wake, whereas a wing does.It seems to follow that the “virtual mass” planing hull analysis can be applied to “quasi-static” problems involving wings and bodies in an infinite fluid without the slenderness restriction originally imposed by Jones (1946). Certainly, it is remarkable that the so called “quasi-steady” forces on a two-dimensional wing can be obtained in a few lines of elementary analysis. On the other hand, the method fails entirely when used to compute the pitching moment on a two-dimensional plate, even though it has been found to give good results for the three-dimensional case (Payne, 1981c).This work is offered as a very incomplete study of an intriguing relationship between two very different bodies of analysis. Much more work will need to be done before the relationship between the two approaches will be fully understood.