Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Seasonal variations in river discharge and nutrient export to a Northeastern Pacific estuary

Seasonal variations in dissolved nitrogen and silica loadings were related to seasonal variability in river discharge. Dissolved nutrient concentrations measured weekly at three stations in the Yaquina River, Oregon from 1999 through 2001, and then monthly in 2002 were used as the basis for developing a nutrient loading regression as part of a larger agency program for evaluating nutrient processes. Because realistic models of nutrient transport require dense data sets to capture both long and short term fluctuations in nutrient concentrations, data at one freshwater station also were collected hourly for the same years using an in-stream monitor.The effects of storm events on dissolved nutrient transport were examined during three storms, including one in a high rainfall-discharge year, and two in average years, one of which followed a drought year. During the drought year (WY2001), total dissolved nitrate input was considerably less than in wetter years. Dissolved nitrate concentrations, however, were unusually high in the first winter storm runoff after the drought. The freshwater dissolved nitrate nitrogen loads varied from 40,380 kg day⁻¹ during a high-flow storm event to 0.11 kg day⁻¹ during late summer, low flow conditions. Dissolved silica dynamics differed from those of nitrate because during storm events, silica concentrations in the Yaquina River decreased to near zero at the storm height, probably due to dilution by near surface or overland flow, and later recovered.During the time interval studied, over 94% of the dissolved nitrate and silica were transported from the watershed during the winter months of greater rainfall, indicating that seasonality and river flow are primary factors when considering nutrient loadings from this watershed system.     

Seismic evidence for pervasive deformation of oceanic sediments in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic

Seismic reflection profiles from the equatorial Atlantic off Africa between 12°N and 1°N reveal remarkably widespread deformation of oceanic sediments in an area lacking teleseismic activity. Uplift of abyssal plain sequences has occurred along the eastern extensions of large-offset fracture zones on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Between the major transforms pervasive deformation is imaged in the sedimentary column. Diapirism and faulting may have been associated with extensive fluid migration and sediment mobilization. The deformation occurred during the late Cenozoic and was probably related to reactivation of Cretaceous transforms.     

Effects of water-borne copper on metallothionein and lipid peroxidation in the marine amphipod Gammarus locusta

The aim of the current work was to determine over 10 days the effects of water-borne exposure of the marine amphipod Gammarus locusta to 4 microgCu l(-1) on the metallothionein (MT; measured by differential pulse polarography) protection system and lipid peroxidation (LP: thiobarbituric acid-reactive malondialdehyde equivalents) as a measure of oxidative damage. MT levels in exposed animals increased significantly at day 2 (36% > control; P < 0.001) and remained high at days 6 and 10 (55 and 38%, respectively, P < 0.001). The maximum level of MT at day 6 coincided with the highest Cu body-burden. LP increased within I day of exposure, indicative of Cu as an oxidative stressor. However, in contrast to MT, the highest LP level was seen at day 4 (68% > control, P < 0.001) before returning to control values by day 6, indicating a protective role of MT against the pro-oxidant effects of Cu.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

Filters for linear sea-wave prediction

Deterministic sea-wave prediction (DSWP) models are appearing in the literature designed for quiescent interval prediction in marine applications dominated by large swell seas. The approach has focused upon spectral methods which are straightforward and intuitively attractive. However, such methods have the disadvantage that while the sea is aperiodic in nature, the standard discrete spectral processing techniques force an absolutely periodic structure onto the resulting sea surface prediction models. As it is the shape of the sea surface that is important in such applications, particularly near the end of the domain which is important, the standard windowing techniques used in signal processing work to reduce leakage artifacts cannot be employed. This has necessitated the use of end matching methods that can be both inconvenient and may reduce the fraction of the time for which legitimate predictions are available. As a result, an investigation has been undertaken of the use of finite impulse response prediction filters to provide the necessary dispersive phase shifting required in DSWP systems. The present work examines the theoretical basis for such filters and explores their properties together with their application to both long and short crested swell seas. It is shown that wide band forms of such filters are only convergent in the sense of distributions having both infinite duration impulse responses and asymptotically divergent first derivatives. However, appropriate band limitation can produce useful finite impulse responses allowing implementation via standard discrete convolution methods. It is demonstrated that despite the prediction filters having a non-causal impulse response such filters can be used in practice due to a combination of the asymmetric nature of the impulse response and the fundamental nature of the prediction process. The findings are confirmed against actual sea-wave data.