SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

临沂市加强土地开发整理推动新农村建设

土地开发整理与新农村建设相结合,是当前社会关注的热点之一。临沂市高度重视通过土地整理促进新农村建设,自2003年以来,共实施国家和省、市、县四级土地开发整理项目1335个,累计投入11．12亿元,项目总规模14．4万hm^,新增耕地2．2万hm^2。通过实施土地开发整理,新建灌溉渠系1930km,排水沟2315km,新上泵站313个,农用井661眼,新上输变电线路287km,     

Urban three-dimensional expansion and its driving forces —A case study of Shanghai, China

Urban expansion is a phenomenon of urban space increase, and an important measuring index of the process of urbanization. Taking Shanghai as an example, the changes of urban average height and built-up area were studied to represent city’s vertical and horizontal increases respectively, and statistical methods were used to analyze the driving forces of urban expansion. The research drew following conclusions: 1) The urban expansion process of Shanghai from 1985 to 2006 had a clear periodic feature, and could be divided into three stages: vertical expansion in dominance, coordinated vertical and horizontal expansion, and horizontal expansion in dominance. 2) The average height and quantity of buildings in core city were significantly bigger than those in suburbs, but the changing speed of the latter was faster. And 3) urbanization process was the major driving force for the city’s horizontal expansion, while industrial structure improvement was the key driving factor for the vertical expansion. Those two driving forces were simultaneously affected by city’s political factors.     

药品管理程序设计

为使药品管理摆脱繁琐的手工操作,减少差错,提高效率,用微机替代手工操作,实现药品管理系统化、程序化、自动化。本设计较好地实现了上述目标。     

Damming of large river by debris flow: Dynamic process and particle composition

The frequency and extent of debris flows have increased tremendously due to the extreme weather and the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Previous studies focused on the debris flow from gullies damming the mountain streams. In this paper, an equation for the run-out distance of debris flow in the main river is proposed based on the dynamic equation of debris flow at different slopes given by Takahashi. By undertaking field investigations and flume experiments, a new calculation method of the volume of debris flow damming large river is obtained. Using the percolation theory and the renormalization group theory it was deduced that the large particles should comprise more than 50% for forming a stable debris flow dam. Hence, the criteria of damming large river by debris flow is presented in terms of run-out distance and grain composition which was then validated through the event of damming river by debris flow at Gaojia gully, the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, Sichuan, China, on July 3, 2011.     

Characteristics and interpretation of the seismic signal of a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment

Outburst floods caused by breaches of landslide dams may cause serious damages and loss of lives in downstream areas; for this reason the study of the dynamic of the process is of particular interest for hazard and risk assessment. In this paper we report a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment conducted in Nantou County, in the central of Taiwan.The seismic signal generated during the dam failure was monitored using a broadband seismometer and the signal was used to study the dam failure process.We used the short-time Fourier transform(STFT) to obtain the time–frequency characteristics of the signal and analyzed the correlation between the power spectrum density(PSD) of the signal and the water level. The results indicate that the seismic signal generated during the process consisted of three components: a low-frequency band(0–1.5 Hz), an intermediate-frequency band(1.5–10 Hz) and a highfrequency band(10–45 Hz). We obtained the characteristics of each frequency band and the variations of the signal in various stages of the landslide dam failure process. We determined the cause for the signal changes in each frequency band and its relationship with the dam failure process. The PSD sediment flux estimation model was used to interpret the causes of variations in the signal energy before the dam failure and the clockwise hysteresis during the failure. Our results show that the seismic signal reflects the physical characteristics of the landslide dam failure process. The method and equipment used in this study may be used to monitor landslide dams and providing early warnings for dam failures.     

对黄河水资源可持续利用的认识

水资源可持续利用是经济社会发展的重大战略问题。近年来,黄河下游水量持续偏枯,用水量不断增加,水污染范围逐步扩大,污染程度日益加重,黄河水资源管理面临水资源短缺和水污染程度加剧两大难题。当前,采取多种措施确保水资源可持续利用势在必行。     

静海地震台地磁短周期变化及其在地震短临预报中的应用

近年来的一些研究表明，由于地震前孕震区地下介质的电性结构的变化，将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。通过对地震前后的地磁短周期转换函数的参数的计算、分析和研究，有可能提取出可靠的地震短临前兆异常（曾小苹等，１９９０）。为了进一步开展对该方法研究工作并使其在我区地震预测预报研究中得到应用，我们使用了静海台的地磁记录资料，分析计算了该台地磁短周期转换函数在地震前后的变化情况，确立了该方法应用天津地区地震预报的短临异常特征及指标，取得了较好的效果。     

Volume estimation and stage division of the Mahu landslide in Sichuan Province,China

The Mahu lake, the third deepest lake in China, is located on the west bank of the Jinsha River in Leibo county, Sichuan Province. It is a dammed lake created by an old landslide on the ancient Huanglang river, a tributary on the west bank of the Jinsha River. Previous studies (Wang and Lu in J Mt Res S1:44–47, 2000) suggested that this landslide was caused by an earthquake approximately 372 ka (Middle Pleistocene), during which a few hundreds of million cubic meters of debris were deposited between 1177 and 900 m a.s.l. (above sea level), covering an area of around 15 km². Our further investigations, including geodetic survey, borehole drilling, and field reconnaissance, combining with five chronological data, have made some new discoveries at this site. First, the toe of the landslide extends from 900 m a.s.l. down to 320 m a.s.l., i.e., the local bed elevation of the contemporary Jinsha River. Second, the area of the landslide deposits is 17.3 km² with a volume of 2.38 km³, much larger than the previous estimation. Thus, it should be one of the largest known landslides in China. And the lower elevation of the landslide’s toe also rules out the possibility that it is a hanging valley on the ancient Huanglang river. Our work suggests that this landslide was created by five events according to the overlapping characteristics of the deposits and five chronological data, which are old than 52,600 years, old than 16,000 years, old than 15,500 years, 5800 years, and old than 4200 years, respectively.     

Using landscape indicators and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the optimum spatial scale of urban land use patterns in Wuhan,China

Quantifying land use patterns and functions is critical for modeling urban ecological processes, and an emerging challenge is to apply models at multiple spatial scales. Methods of determining the optimum scale of land use patterns are commonly considered using landscape metrics. Landscape metrics are quantitative indicators for analyzing landscape heterogeneity at the landscape level. In this study, due to their widespread use in urban landscape analyses and well-documented effectiveness in quantifying landscape patterns, landscape metrics that represent dominance, shape, fragmentation and connectivity were selected. Five metrics include Patch Density, Contagion, Landscape Shape Index, Aggregation Index and Connectivity. Despite a wide application of landscape metrics for land use studies, the majority mainly focuses on the qualitative analysis of the characteristics of landscape metrics. The previous models are limited in exploring the optimum scale of land use patterns for their lack of quantitation. Therefore, taking the City of Wuhan as an example, the land use unit was treated as a patch, and the landscape pattern metrics at different spatial scales were calculated and compared so as to find the optimum one. Furthermore, a mathematical model of landscape metrics was proposed to quantify the scale effect of urban land use patterns, generating a complementary tool to select the optimum scale. In addition, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was introduced to determine the respective weights of the chosen landscape metrics in this model. Fractal dimension was ultimately applied to verify the chosen optimum scale of our study region. The results indicated that 60 m is confirmed to be the optimum scale for capturing the spatial variability of land use patterns in this study area.