引潮位展开的不同规格化形式及其转换

在引潮位展开过程中,为使大地系数的数值在不同阶次中保持相对稳定,对其进行规格化处理。从引潮位的基本理论公式出发,在分析缔合勒让德函数及其完全规格化的基础上,给出了引潮位展开中3类不同规格化(Doodson规格化、Cartwright & Tayler规格化、Hartmann & Wenzel规格化)公式的具体形式,得到3者之间的转换关系与转换系数。同时给出Doodson规格化中2~6阶规格化因子的具体数值,指出并改正Doodson、Roosbeek文献和IERS 2003、2010规范中的3处错误。     

基于改进果蝇算法的非线性模型参数估计方法

在对基本果蝇优化算法的寻优流程进行深入分析的基础上,提出一种单方向搜索处理的改进果蝇优化算法（IFOA）。该方法可以对极值点为非零非负的非线性函数进行优化处理,将其应用于非线性模型参数估计。实例表明,IFOA方法在参数估计精度上优于线性近似法与非线性迭代方法;与以遗传算法为代表的智能搜索方法相比,其估计精度相当,并具有参数设置少、寻优过程简单、易于程序实现等优点。     

基于Landsat-8时间序列影像分析西昆仑山地区冰川滑移特征

利用图像亚像元互相关分析方法处理了Landsat-8卫星获取的时间序列影像数据,得到中国青藏高原西北部地区西昆仑峰区冰川匀速滑移的时空演化过程。利用亚像元影像互相关技术对Landsat-8光学影像精确配准,配准精度达到0.01像元,即该光学影像的水平形变监测精度达到0.15 m。通过对2013-07～2014-08的15景Landsat-8影像进行互相关和形变时间序列反演分析,获得了西昆仑峰区两条冰川的滑动位移场和速度场。研究表明,该区域的冰川基本处于匀速滑移状态（无明显加速和减速现象）;同时也验证了Landsat-8光学影像在监测较大地表位移和地壳形变事件（如沙丘移动、地震、滑坡、火山等）上的应用潜力。     

北京市房价与地价的动态关系——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

城市房价与地价之间的关系错综复杂,不仅受多种因素的交织影响,相互之间也存在动态关系。研究房价与地价关系的传统方法,如Granger因果检验和回归分析等,无法刻画房价与地价之间多维的网络状关系,相比之下,结构方程模型能同时处理多个内生潜变量,且不受观测指标共线性的影响,为刻画地价与房价的交互作用提供了新的工具。从住房与土地市场的供需传导机制出发,推导出房价与地价的结构模型,以北京市为例,运用2003-2013年居住用地价格和2014年在售楼盘价格,与北京市GIS电子地图相匹配,提取商服中心可达性、公共交通可达性、道路可达性、商服繁华度、设施便利性等解释变量,构建地价与房价结构方程模型,分析二者之间的结构关系。     

基于GIS的地下水易污性评价系统

介绍了基于MapGIS开发的地下水易污性DRAMTICH评价系统,说明地下水易污性评价软件(GW-VAS)的基本框架、主要功能、组成部分、系统特点以及使用方法。该系统还对DRASTIC等其它常见的地下水易污性评价方法进行了综合集成,克服了单一方法缺乏对比性的不足,提高了评价结果的客观性、科学性和实用性。并将该方法应用于黄水河流域,利用传统的权重评分法和本文开发的方法进行了对比,结果表明,系统通用性好,方法实用性强。 更多还原     

Early Paleozoic tectonic evolution of the Chinese South Tianshan Orogen: constraints from SHRIMP zircon U–Pb geochronology and geochemistry of basaltic and dioritic rocks from Xiate,NW China

Traditionally the Chinese South Tianshan has been regarded as a late Paleozoic orogenic belt. However, little is known about the early Paleozoic tectonic architecture of the region. This paper presents the first evidence of Cambrian–Ordovician MORB-type basalts and adakitic diorites on the southern margin of the Yili plate in China. Basalts from Xiate in southwestern Tianshan show a typical transitional (T-) MORB and ferrobasalt composition, which indicate a formation at a propagating spreading ridge. The basalts give a weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U crystallization age of 516.3 ± 7.4 Ma by SHRIMP U–Pb zircon dating and have experienced contact metamorphism due to the intrusion of a dioritic pluton. The dioritic pluton has a weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U crystallization age of 470 ± 12 Ma and geochemical characteristics resembling that of adakitic rocks. The pluton is considered to have been formed by partial melting of garnet amphibolites from thickened lower crust in arc or continental collision settings. The basalts and diorites are considered to outline the eastern extension of the early Paleozoic suture zone, the Nikolaev Line, which stretches east–west for hundreds of kilometers between the Northern Tianshan and Central Tianshan terranes of Kyrgyzstan. Our findings substantiate that the Yili and Central Tianshan plates were separated by the early Paleozoic Terskey ocean. The Terskey ocean probably closed during the early stage of the late Ordovician (Lomize et al. in Geotectonics 31(6):463–482, 1997), resulting in the final amalgamation of the Yili and Central Tianshan plates. Consequently, an early Paleozoic suture zone is documented in the Chinese Tianshan region, which is most likely represented by the North Nalati fault.     

256层多排螺旋CT小肠成像(MDCTE)对小肠疾病的诊断价值

目的:探讨256层多排螺旋CT小肠造影(MDCTE)扫描技术在小肠疾病诊断中的临床应用价值。材料和方法:对118例临床怀疑小肠疾病患者,男53例,女65例,平均年龄48.5岁。行256-MDCTE平扫及增强扫描,通过横断面及多平面重建,观察病变部位、大小、形态、周围侵犯及转移情况,结果与最终临床诊断对照分析。结果:本组118例患者中,56例MDCTE诊断为小肠病变,并与最终临床诊断相符。另外62例MDCTE诊断为阴性,其中47例符合,9例漏诊,6例误诊。并且通过统计分析得出MDCTE对小肠疾病诊断的灵敏度为78.87%(56/71),特异度为100%(47/47),正确率为87.29%((56+47)/118),阳性预测值为100%(56/56),阴性预测值为75.80%(47/62)。结论:小肠肿瘤、炎症、肠梗阻等病变在MDCTE上具有特征性的表现,MDCTE对小肠疾病的临床诊治具有重要价值。     

我国标贯液化判别方法对黄土适用性研究

鉴于我国20世纪50年代以来,地震液化现场很少有黄土液化的实例,而饱和黄土甚至高含水率的黄土也具有很高的液化势和流态破坏势.为工程设计准确预测饱和黄土在设计地震动的作用下是否会液化,本文用Seed-Idriss简化判别法对兰州某民用机场的饱和黄土和砂土进行液化判别,并以此结果为依据检验规范判别式对黄土液化判别的适用性.结论证实用Seed-Idriss简化判别法结果检验规范方法对黄土的适用性是可行的,规范方法对于黄土液化判别过于保守.     

Investigating the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in SWAT model under climate change

ABSTRACT

There is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

基于SuperMap GIS的道路网络特征分析

道路网络特征分析是进行交通网络分析的基础,本文基于SuperMap GIS分析了道路网络特征,其中包括网络统计特征、网络中心性等网络特征,并以北京市道路网络数据为例进行了实验分析,实验结果表明SuperMapGIS是研究道路网络特征分析的重要计算平台。