An empirical earthquake prediction model

We have monitored seismic activity induced by impoundment of Lake Jocassee in northwest South Carolina for about two years. Low-level shallow activity was recorded. The larger felt events (2.0 ? M_L ? 2.6) were found to be associated with precursory changes in one or more of the following; number of events, t_S/t_p ratio values and radon concentrations in groundwater.The microearthquakes in the precursory period were accurately located in time and space, and their location pattern was used to develop an empirical earthquake prediction model.The precursory period consists of two phases; α-phase or a period of slow (or no) increase in seismicity, and β-phase, a period when the activity increase is more rapid. The main shock was found to be located within a cluster, a “target” area defined by the location of events in the β-phase. There is a general absence of seismic activity in the “target” area in the α-phase. The main shock occurred soon after a period of quiescence in the seismic activity in the β-phase. The magnitude of the shock, M_L is given by: M_L = 2 log D ? 0.07, where D is the duration of the precursory period in days.The model was successfully tested with data for a magnitude 2.3 event on February 23, 1977 which was also accompanied by radon and t_s/t_p anomalies.     

Geology, petrography and geochemistry of rhyolite-hosted uranium mineralization at Mohar, Shivpuri district, Madhya Pradesh

In the westernmost part of the Bundelkhand Granitoid Complex (BGC), a mesa structure represents a unique outlier, surrounded by brecciated granite and filled with Vindhyan sedimentary rocks locally known as the Dhala Formation near Mohar village of Shivpuri district, Madhya Pradesh. Uranium mineralisation located in the area is mostly associated with rhyolite of peralkaline to peraluminous in nature, that has a high average uranium concentration (30 ppm). The mineralization is in or adjacent to caldera and is hydrothermal vein-type. Radioactivity is mainly due to coffinite with limited radioactivity due to U-Ti complex, uranium adsorbed in clay and labile uranium along fracture. Coffinite occurs in association with pyrite and chalcopyrite or chlorite with presence of fluorite. Features such as chloritisation, clay formation and sulfide mineralisation manifest hydrothermal alteration. Chemical analysis indicates the aluminous nature of the rock and their high K₂O/Na₂O (3.81–12.84) ratios are suggestive of predominance of potash feldspar over sodic. The alteration index varies from 49.88–92.40, which, reflects high intensity of hydrothermal alteration. Chlorite-carbonatepyrite index (CCPI), a measure of the intensity of replacement of sodic feldspars and glass by sericite, chlorite, carbonate, and pyrite associated with hydrothermal alteration proximal to the ore bodies varies from 3.84–49.66. On the basis of core study, geochemistry and mineralogy, it is envisaged that epigenetic hydrothermal solutions were responsible for concentration of uranium as coffinite, radioactive carbonaceous matter and adsorbed uranium phases in rhyolite with sulfide confined to weak planes.     

Hydrogeochemistry of the Koyna River basin,India

Hydrogeochemistry of the Koyna River basin, famous for the Koyna earthquake (magnitude 7) of 1967, has been studied. Basalt is the primary aquifer; laterites, alluvium, and talus deposits form aquifers of secondary importance. Groundwater generally occurs under water table conditions in shallow aquifers. Deeper aquifers are associated only with basalts. One hundred and 87 water samples were collected from various sources, such as dugwells, borewells, springs, and surface water, including 40 samples for analysis of iron. Only major constituents were analyzed. Analyses show that the concentrations of Ca²⁺ exceed that of Mg²⁺ in almost all water samples; the concentrations of Na⁺ are generally next to Ca²⁺ and are always higher than that of K⁺; and CO₃ ^2– and SO₄ ^2– are very low and are often negligible. Groundwater in borewells tapping deeper aquifers has higher mineralization compared to that in dugwells representing shallow aquifers. Majority of the water samples are dominated by alkaline earths (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺) and weak acids (HCO₃ ⁻, CO₃ ^2–). Groundwater from shallow aquifers is generally calcium-bicarbonate type (53%) and calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate type (27%). In case of deeper aquifer, it is mostly calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate type (29%), sodium-bicarbonate type (24%), calcium-bicarbonate type (19%), calcium-magnesium-sodium-bicarbonate type (19%) and sodium-calcium-bicarbonate type (9%). Groundwater water is generally fit for drinking and irrigation purposes, except in the lower reaches of the Koyna River basin, which is affected by near water logging conditions.     

Classification and interpretation of piezometer well hydrographs in parts of southeastern peninsular India

Well hydrographs from 275 piezometers between 1998 and 2001 in the southeastern parts of peninsular India were used in this study. The area has a monsoon-type climate. Hard rocks cover 85% of the area. The form (shape) of the hydrograph depends upon (1) climatic and hydrogeologic parameters and (2) the scale of the graph. Therefore, hydrographs are drawn to a defined and standardised scale, which allows comparison of hydrographs and helps in bringing out reasons for different forms of the hydrographs. Hydrographs can be divided into seasonal segments and the slope of each segment then used as the basic element of a classification scheme. Slopes are classed as flat (inclination <20°), obtuse (between 20 and 45°), acute (45 and 80°), right angled (80 and 90°) and homoclinal (segments of hydrographs are either rising or falling during one complete water year). Hydrographs are assigned names that are a combination of these classes and begin with the rising segment, such as acute-obtuse. Seventy-six percent of segments were homoclinal-falling in 1999, which had a poor monsoon. Flat segments constitute 27% of all segments in confined Mesozoic aquifer systems. Water table fluctuations suggest an approximate recharge of 120 to 180 mm per annum constituting 18% of the annual precipitation. Cumulative rainfall required to affect a rise in water table is between 45 to 200 mm and lag time varies from 30 minutes to 200 rainy days, which suggests that moisture in the vadose zone holds a part of the annual replenishment for these aquifers.     

Probabilistic Analysis and Design of a Strip Footing on Layered Soil Media

In the present paper, the analysis of a strip footing resting on a layered soil system has been carried out considering the elastic moduli of soil layers as random variables. Three layers of soil have been considered and the analysis employs Monte Carlo simulation. The modulus of elasticity has been considered as random variable having lognormal distribution. Factors of safety with respect to settlement of footing and the interfacial stresses have been determined and have been related to the associated risk factor and coefficient of variation of the random variable. A detailed parametric study revealed that for a given risk level, the factors of safety is strongly dependent on the coefficient of variation of elastic modulus and only mildly upon other parameters of the soil?Cfoundation system. This facilitated the development of closed form equations for the upper bounds on factors of safety only in terms of allowable risk of failure and the coefficient of variation of elastic modulus.     

Peperite occurrence and its implications on origin and temporal development of the Proterozoic Dhala basin,Mohar area,Shivpuri district,Madhya Pradesh

In the western part of Bundelkhand massif, a caldera with intra-caldera sediments, known as Dhala Formation, occurs as an outlier in and around Mohar village of Shivpuri district, Madhya Pradesh. For the first time, occurrence of peperite is being reported from the basal part of the Dhala sediment. Two types of peperites have been recognized: blocky and fluidal or globular with variable morphology. In peperitic zones, features like soft sediment deformations, presence of sediment into the rhyolite along cracks, vesiculation of the sediments and other evidences suggestive of sediment fluidization are some definite characteristics of interaction of hot magma with wet sediments forming peperite. The occurrence of peperites reflects the contemporaniety of deposition of the Dhala sediments and volcanism, which is well in accordance to the volcanic origin of Dhala structure. Further, the nature of unconformity between the Dhala and overlying Kaimur which is characterized by merely a few centimeter thick pebbly/conglomeratic bed does not appear to represent a large hiatus as expected between the Semri and Kaimur of Vindhyan Supergroup. So, the contemporaniety of the Dhala Formation (at least the lower part) as reflected by occurrence of peperites, coupled with the available age of the rhyolite and the nature of the unconformity between the Dhala and overlying Kaimur provide convincing evidence to correlate the Dhala Formation with the Lower part of the Kaimur and unlikely with the Semri Group or Bijawar as proposed earlier.     

Magnetic Mapping of Banded Iron Formation of Sandur Schist Belt,Dharwar Craton,India

High ground magnetic anomalies are observed at western basin of the Sandur schist belt (SSB) near Muraripura village, Karnataka. Sources for these anomalies are inferred due to presence of exposed banded iron formations hosted by metabasalts, arenaous and argillaceous rocks associated with the Donimali Formation of the schist belt. Two varieties of BIF bands are observed in the study area viz. Band 1 and Band 2. The bands 1 and 2 are displaced by lateral strike-slip fault. Band 1 is dominantly composed of banded iron formation, rich in iron ore minerals and silica chert. Band 2 is largely composed of ferruginous quartzite and quartz arenites. Qualitative analysis of the magnetic data indicates that the study area can be divided into three lithologically important BIF/BQ formations. Spectral and quantitative analysis of the magnetic data indicates, the average depth of band 1 is 70 m and band 2 is 130 m. The magnetic data results are well correlated with chemical analysis of borehole and surface rock samples data.