Seismic vulnerability assessment for Montreal

In Canada, Montreal is the second city with the highest seismic risk. This is due to its relatively high seismic hazard, old infrastructures and high population density. The region is characterised by moderate seismic activity with no recent record of a major earthquake. The lack of historical strong ground motion records for the region contributes to large uncertainties in the estimation of hazards. Among the sources of uncertainty, the attenuation function is the main contributor and its effect on estimates of risks is investigated. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggest that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. Seismic loss estimates are performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic threat, which corresponds to the design level earthquake in the national building code of Canada, using HAZUS-MH4 for the Montreal region over 522 census tracts. The study estimated that for the average scenario roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for such a scenario. The maximum number of casualties would result in approximately 500 people being injured or dead at a calculated time of occurrence of 2?pm.     

Lateglacial palaeoenvironments and palaeoclimates from Conty and Houdancourt, northern France, reconstructed from Beetle remains

Two Lateglacial insect sequences are described (a) from Conty, in the Selle valley and (b) from Houdancourt in the Oise valley, both in northern France. These investigations are part of a multidisciplinary investigation involving archaeology, sedimentology, geomorphology, geochronology and palaeontology (pollen, macroscopic plant remains, vertebrates, molluscs and insect fossils). The sequences of insect assemblages date from the latter part of the Bølling to the end of the Allerød periods. Environmental analysis of these faunas shows that rivers with riffles and pools meandered across flood plains. The river was extensively fringed with reedy vegetation. The only trees growing close to the river were of Salix and/or Populus. All the insect assemblages indicate that the thermal climates during the Bølling and Allerød periods were similar to one another and during both periods were very nearly as warm as that of the present day. No insect fossils were recovered from the sediments attributed to the Older Dryas interval though other evidence from these sites suggests that this event was decidedly colder than those immediately preceding and succeeding it. Comparisons are made between Lateglacial climatic patterns in northern France with those elsewhere in Europe.     

Modeling the impact of microbial activity on redox dynamics in porous media

The present study investigates the interaction between microbial growth and activity and the redox dynamics in natural porous media. The impact the transport regime has on this interaction is also addressed. Expressions for microbial growth are incorporated into a geochemical reaction network linking redox reaction rates to the activity of the microorganisms. A flexible simulation environment, the Biogeochemical Reaction Network Simulator (BRNS) is used for this purpose. Two reactive transport applications relevant to fields of contaminant hydrology and early diagenesis are simulated with the BRNS. Model results are evaluated based on a comparison with comprehensive datasets on the biodegradation of lactate in a sand column experiment and on the distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species in marine sediments of the Skagerrak, Denmark. It is shown that, despite quite different transport regimes, the geomicrobiological model performs equally well in the reproduction of measured chemical species distribution for both applications. This result emphasizes the broad applicability of the proposed approach. Our simulations support that the competitive behavior between various microbial groups is a process controlling the development of redox stratified environments. Furthermore, it is also shown that the transport regime is a key controlling factor for the degree of spatial correlation between microbial biomass distributions and redox reaction rates. Although all our simulations yield a pronounced stratification of the redox processes in the system, the biomass distribution is related to the associated reaction rates only in case of the advection controlled column experiment. In the early diagenetic application, mixing due to bioturbation is the dominant transport process for particulate matter, hence leading to fairly homogeneous distribution of bacterial biomasses which are unrelated to the spatial distribution of redox reaction rates. This homogeneous biomass distribution combined with the 1G carbon degradation model approach might explain why the steady state concentration profiles in such systems can be reproduced by diagenetic models without explicit representation of microbial growth.     

Détermination expérimentale des paramètres équivalents d'un milieu poreux hétérogène en écoulements uniforme ou radial

Tracer tests are carried out in a heterogeneous porous medium that has a 3D correlated random distribution of the permeabilities. The fitting of numerical models provides the values of equivalent permeability and macrodispersivity characterizing a 2D homogeneous horizontal medium. Different flow configurations are studied: uniform, radial and pump and treat (doublet). The fitted parameter sets are independent of the flow type, except for the doublet. They are greater than the values predicted by stochastic theories, due to the small number of correlation lengths explored by the tracer and the limited extension of the experimental set-up. To cite this article: C. Danquigny, P. Ackerer, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Using Multiple-Point Geostatistics for Tracer Test Modeling in a Clay-Drape Environment with Spatially Variable Conductivity and Sorption Coefficient

This study investigates the effect of fine-scale clay drapes on tracer transport. A tracer test was performed in a sandbar deposit consisting of cross-bedded sandy units intercalated with many fine-scale clay drapes. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of the clay drapes causes a spatially variable hydraulic conductivity and sorption coefficient. A fluorescent tracer (sodium naphthionate) was injected in two injection wells and ground water was sampled and analyzed from five pumping wells. To determine (1) whether the fine-scale clay drapes have a significant effect on the measured concentrations and (2) whether application of multiple-point geostatistics can improve interpretation of tracer tests in media with complex geological heterogeneity, this tracer test is analyzed with a local three-dimensional ground-water flow and transport model in which fine-scale sedimentary heterogeneity is modeled using multiple-point geostatistics. To reduce memory needs and calculation time for the multiple-point geostatistical simulation step, this study uses the technique of direct multiple-point geostatistical simulation of edge properties. Instead of simulating pixel values, model cell edge properties indicating the presence of irregularly shaped surfaces are simulated using multiple-point geostatistical simulations. Results of a sensitivity analysis show under which conditions clay drapes have a significant effect on the concentration distribution. Calibration of the model against measured concentrations from the tracer tests reduces the uncertainty on the clay-drape parameters. The calibrated model shows which features of the breakthrough curves can be attributed to the geological heterogeneity of the aquifer and which features are caused by other processes.     

The sandstone-hosted stratiform copper mineralization at Mwitapile and its relation to the mineralization at Lufukwe, Lufilian foreland, Democratic Republic of Congo

The Lufilian foreland is a triangular-shaped area located in the SE of the Democratic Republic of Congo and to the NE of the Lufilian arc, which hosts the well-known Central African Copperbelt. The Lufilian foreland recently became an interesting area with several vein-type (e.g., Dikulushi) and stratiform (e.g., Lufukwe and Mwitapile) copper occurrences. The Lufilian foreland stratiform Cu mineralization is, to date, observed in sandstone rock units belonging to the Nguba and Kundelungu Groups (Katanga Supergroup).The Mwitapile sandstone-hosted stratiform Cu prospect is located in the north eastern part of the Lufilian foreland. The host rock for the Cu mineralization is the Sonta Sandstone of the Ngule Subgroup (Kundelungu Group). A combined remote sensing, petrographic and fluid inclusion microthermometric analysis was performed at Mwitapile and compared with similar analysis previously carried out at Lufukwe to present a metallogenic model for the Mwitapile- and Lufukwe-type stratiform copper deposits. Interpretation of ETM+ satellite images for the Mwitapile prospect and the surrounding areas indicate the absence of NE–SW or ENE–WSW faults, similar to those observed controlling the mineralization at Lufukwe. Faults with these orientations are, however, present to the NW, W, SW and E of the Mwitapile prospect. At Mwitapile, the Sonta Sandstone host rock is intensely compacted, arkosic to calcareous with high silica cementation (first generation of authigenic quartz overgrowths). In the Sonta Sandstone, feldspar and calcite are present in disseminated, banded and nodular forms. Intense dissolution of these minerals caused the presence of disseminated rectangular, pipe-like and nodular dissolution cavities. Sulfide mineralization is mainly concentrated in these cavities. The hypogene sulfide minerals consist of two generations of pyrite, chalcopyrite, bornite and chalcocite, separated by a second generation of authigenic quartz overgrowth. The hypogene sulfide minerals are replaced by supergene digenite and covellite. Fluid inclusion microthermometry on the first authigenic quartz phase indicates silica precipitation from an H₂O–NaCl–CaCl₂ fluid with a minimum temperature between 111 and 182 °C and a salinity between 22.0 and 25.5 wt.% CaCl₂ equiv. Microthermometry on the second authigenic quartz overgrowths and in secondary trails related to the mineralization indicate that the mineralizing fluid is characterized by variable temperatures (Th = 120 to 280 °C) and salinities (2.4 to 19.8 wt.% NaCl equiv.) and by a general trend of increasing temperatures with increasing salinities.Comparison between Mwitapile and Lufukwe indicates that the stratiform Cu mineralization in the two deposits is controlled by similar sedimentary, diagenetic and structural factors and likely formed from a similar mineralizing fluid. A post-orogenic timing is proposed for the mineralization in both deposits. The main mineralization controlling factors are grain size, clay and pyrobitumen content, the amount and degree of feldspar and/or calcite dissolution and the presence of NE–SW to ENE–WSW faults. The data support a post-orogenic fluid-mixing model for the Mwitapile- and Lufukwe-type sandstone-hosted stratiform Cu deposits, in which the mineralization is related to the mixing between a Cu-rich hydrothermal fluid, with a temperature up to 280 °C and a maximum salinity of 19.8 wt.% NaCl equiv., with a colder low salinity reducing fluid present in the sandstone host rock. The mineralizing fluid likely migrated upwards to the sandstone source rocks along NE–SW to ENE–WSW orientated faults. At Lufukwe, the highest copper grades at surface outcrops and boreholes were found along and near to these faults. At Mwitapile, where such faults are 2 to 3 km away, the Cu grades are much lower than at Lufukwe. Copper precipitation was possibly promoted by reduction from pre-existing hydrocarbons and non-copper sulfides and by the decrease in fluid salinity and temperature during mixing. Based on this research, new Cu prospects were proposed at Lufukwe and Mwitapile and a set of recommendations for further Cu exploration in the Lufilian foreland is presented.     

Contrasting isotopic signatures between anthropogenic and geogenic Zn and evidence for post-depositional fractionation processes in smelter-impacted soils from Northern France

Zinc isotopes have been studied along two smelter-impacted soil profiles sampled near one of the largest Pb and Zn processing plants in Europe located in northern France, about 50 km south of Lille. Mean δ⁶⁶Zn values along these two soil profiles range from +0.22 ± 0.17‰ (2σ) to +0.34 ± 0.17‰ (2σ) at the lowest horizons and from +0.38 ± 0.45‰ (2σ) to +0.76 ± 0.14‰ (2σ) near the surface. The δ⁶⁶Zn values in the lowest horizons of the soils are interpreted as being representative of the local geochemical background (mean value +0.31 ± 0.38‰), whereas heavier δ⁶⁶Zn values near the surface of the two soils are related to anthropogenic Zn. This anthropogenic Zn occurs in the form of franklinite (ZnFe₂O₄)-bearing slag grains originating from processing wastes at the smelter site and exhibiting δ⁶⁶Zn values of +0.81 ± 0.20‰ (2σ). The presence of franklinite is indicated by EXAFS analysis of the topsoil samples from both soil profiles as well as by micro-XANES analysis of the surface horizon of a third smelter-impacted soil from a distant site. These results indicate that naturally occurring Zn and smelter-derived Zn exhibit significantly different δ⁶⁶Zn values, which suggests that zinc isotopes can be used to distinguish between geogenic and anthropogenic sources of Zn in smelter-impacted soils. In addition to a possible influence of additional past sources of light Zn (likely Zn-sulfides and Zn-sulfates directly emitted by the smelter), the light δ⁶⁶Zn values in the surface horizons compared to smelter-derived slag materials are interpreted as resulting mainly from fractionation processes associated with biotic and/or abiotic pedological processes (Zn-bearing mineral precipitation, Zn complexation by organic matter, and plant uptake of Zn). This conclusion emphasizes the need for additional Zn isotopic studies before being able to use Zn isotopes to trace sources and pathways of this element in surface environments.     

Coastal flood risks and seasonal tourism: analysing the effects of tourism dynamics on casualty calculations

Since coastal tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of tourism industry, coastal areas have become increasingly vulnerable in the case of flooding. While in recent years a number of different methods have been put forward to map coastal flood risks, the implications of tourism dynamics for the assessment of human casualties has remained largely overlooked in these models. This chapter examines to what extent the ignorance of (residential) coastal tourism may bias the calculations of human casualties. To this end, a case study has been conducted on the Belgian coast. Both the dynamic nature of coastal tourism and the behaviour of residential tourists in storm surge scenarios are considered. The results of this study show that including tourism dynamics in flood risk management is justified and appropriate, depending on the tourist attractiveness of the flood-prone area and its temporal fluctuations.