The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.     

Development of an instantaneous GNSS/MEMS attitude determination system

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are well suited for attitude determination. The key to high-precision GNSS-attitude determination is the ambiguity resolution. In case of kinematic applications, the rapidity of this process is of particular importance. We present a new instantaneous attitude determination system for GNSS-challenged environments. The single-epoch ambiguity resolution is performed by the ambiguity function method aided by a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS), leading to success rates above 99 %. The GNSS/MEMS fusion is realized by the use of an extended Kalman filter. When the system is stationary, a state vector augmentation with a shaping filter reduces systematic effects in the GNSS-attitudes. By means of two field experiments, the system was tested successfully. Despite poor GNSS measurement conditions, it provided reliable and accurate results, with empirical standard deviations in the range of 0.03–0.1 deg for the yaw angle.     

Field observations of wave refraction and propagation pathways on coral reef platforms

Field experiments were conducted to investigate the refraction and propagation of ocean waves across two coral reef platforms in the Maldives, central Indian Ocean. A total of seven pressure sensors were deployed on each reef to quantify temporal and spatial variations in wave characteristics across the platform surfaces. Directional wave properties were calculated from high frequency (2 Hz) wave and current records obtained at two locations on each reef and corroborate theoretically predicted propagation pathways derived from an analytical wave refraction model. Results demonstrate that reef geometry critically controls the refraction and propagation behaviour of incident swell across the reef structures. Differences in the magnitude of refraction (approximately 57° and 14°) observed on each reef can be attributed to variations in platform shape and orientation to incident waves. Results demonstrate that reef flat wave patterns define the segmentation of platform surfaces into distinctive high and low wave energy zones. Furthermore, wave focussing has been identified as a major mechanism controlling the transformation of wave energy across the reefs. Results provide the first field‐based validation of wave refraction and convergence on coral reefs and have significant implications for sedimentation processes and the formation of platform deposits. Reef configurations which promote marked wave convergence are more likely to retain sediment on the reef surface, whereas platforms that induce less refraction and changes in the direction of incident waves have a higher potential for the off‐reef evacuation of sediment over leeward reef margins. Results of wave measurements substantiate such projections and provide a first order explanation for the existence and absence of a coral cay on the two study reefs. The study presents empirical evidence of wave refraction and convergence on coral reefs and establishes a baseline for future investigations of hydrodynamic process controls on platform sedimentation and island formation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Systematics in the interpretation of aggregated neutrino flux limits and flavor ratios from gamma-ray bursts

Gamma-ray burst analyses at neutrino telescopes are typically based on diffuse or stacked (i.e., aggregated) neutrino fluxes, because the number of events expected from a single burst is small. The interpretation of aggregated flux limits implies new systematics not present for a single burst, such as by the integration over parameter distributions (diffuse fluxes), or by the low statistics in small burst samples (stacked fluxes). We simulate parameter distributions with a Monte Carlo method computing the spectra burst by burst, as compared to a conventional Monte Carlo integration. With this approach, we can predict the behavior of the flux in the diffuse limit as well as in low statistics stacking samples, such as used in recent IceCube data analyses. We also include the flavor composition at the detector (ratio between muon tracks and cascades) into our considerations. We demonstrate that the spectral features, such as a characteristic multi-peak structure coming from photohadronic interactions, flavor mixing, and magnetic field effects, are typically present even in diffuse neutrino fluxes if only the redshift distribution of the sources is considered, with z ? 1 dominating the neutrino flux. On the other hand, we show that variations of the Lorentz boost can only be interpreted in a model-dependent way, and can be used as a model discriminator. For example, we illustrate that the observation of spectral features in aggregated fluxes will disfavor the commonly used assumption that bursts with small Lorentz factors dominate the neutrino flux, whereas it will be consistent with the hypothesis that the bursts have similar properties in the comoving frame.     

The influence of leaf litter diversity and soil fauna on initial soil erosion in subtropical forests

Although the protective role of leaf litter cover against soil erosion is known for a long time, little research has been conducted on the processes involved. Moreover, the impact of soil meso‐ and macrofauna within the litter layer on erosion control is not clear. To investigate how leaf litter cover and diversity as well as meso‐ and macrofauna influence sediment discharge in subtropical forest ecosystems, a field experiment has been carried out in Southeast China. A full‐factorial random design with 96 micro‐scale runoff plots and 7 domestic leaf species was established and erosion was triggered by a rainfall simulator. Our results demonstrate that leaf litter cover protects soil from erosion (?82 % sediment discharge on leaf covered plots) by rainfall and this protection is removed as litter decomposes. The protective effect is influenced by the presence or absence of soil meso‐ and macrofauna. Fauna presence increases soil erosion rates significantly by 58 %, while leaf species diversity shows a non‐significant negative trend. We assume that the faunal effect arises from arthropods slackening and processing the soil surface as well as fragmenting and decomposing the protecting leaf litter covers. Even though the diversity level did not show a significant influence, single leaf species in monocultures show rather different impacts on sediment discharge and thus, erosion control. In our experiment, runoff plots with leaf litter from Machilus thunbergii showed the highest sediment discharge (68.0 g m^?2) whereas plots with Cyclobalanopsis glauca showed the smallest rates (7.9 g m^?2). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of principal component and cluster analysis for classifying circulation pattern sequences for the European domain

The study examines two methods for classification of daily pressure-pattern sequences (extended PCA and extended cluster analysis) and evaluates whether sequence classification is more suitable to describe surface air-temperature conditions in Europe. For this purpose, sequences of daily sea-level pressure fields are classified for each month of the year using a wide range of class numbers (2–40) and sequence lengths from 1 to 6 days. In each case, the classification is used to reconstruct temperature variability in 5°×5° grid-boxes throughout Europe for the period 1850–2003 in order to compare the circulation type based reconstruction to monthly observations for skill estimation. Results show that extended PCA leads to more dynamic pattern sequences for subordinated classes, but also that it is limited in skill, because classes of very low frequencies are generated. In contrast, extended cluster analysis offers higher skill levels for temperature downscaling. However, both methods can benefit from using sequences instead of single days for classification, especially for continental regions.     

Supersoft X‐ray sources and the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae

Supersoft X‐ray sources have been proposed as one of the major channels to produce Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). However, the true nature of the progenitors has remained an unsolved problem. In this review I summarize the present status of our understanding of SN Ia progenitors, the main classes of progenitor models and recent observational constraints. At present, neither the single‐degenerate nor the double‐degenerate model can be ruled out, and indeed more than one channel may be required to explain the observed SN Ia diversity. Finally, I discuss the origin of the lightcurve peak – lightcurve width relation (the ‘Phillips relation’) and show that it is expected to depend on metallicity; this needs to be taken into account in high‐precision cosmological applications (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

基于变化轨迹探测的植被景观格局动态分析——以塔里木河下游生态输水区域为例

 在遥感与GIS技术支持下,以2006、2007、2009、2010年Landsat-5/TM影像与2008年的CBERS/CCD影像为主要数据源,获得5 a的植被/非植被类型图。在此基础上,提取并归纳5 a间的植被变化轨迹:恒定植被、恒定非植被、转变为植被、转变为非植被、非稳定变化。利用景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS 3.3计算了变化轨迹景观格局的3种景观指标。结果表明,2006—2010年植被面积减小,主要因为生态输水量减小、输水间隔较大,导致草本植被、乔灌木幼苗死亡;恒定非植被的比重最大,表明非植被类型是研究区的基质,其次是转变为非植被的比重,说明5 a间植被的衰退程度要强于恢复程度;转变为植被与非稳定变化两种类型属于过渡性植被变化类型,受生态输水量、分布的制约严重;各种变化轨迹类型的形状规则较为稳定,其中以恒定非植被类型最稳定而非稳定变化类型最不稳定。