A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Early Cretaceous uplift and erosion of the northern Appalachian Basin, New York, based on apatite fission track analysis

The thermal history of outcropping Devonian sediments of the northern Appalachian Basin, New York, has been investigated using fission track analysis of detrital apatites from 57 sandstone samples. Based on lengths and apparent age measurements using fission tracks in apatite it is concluded that Lower Devonian sediments presently at the surface in the Catskill region were cooled rapidly from temperatures higher than about 110°C during Early Cretaceous times (120–140 Ma ago). In the western part of New York (Wellsville-Buffalo) data from late Devonian sediments are consistent with cooling at the same time as that identified for the Catskill region but from lower temperatures, in the range of approximately 80–110°C, the maximum temperature these sediments experienced since deposition. For a pre-uplift paleogeothermal gradient of 25–35°C/km, the confined track length data indicates uplift and erosion of 2–3 km for western New York and greater than 3–4 km for the Catskill region, a differential uplift pattern which is consistent with the historical stratigraphic data from the region. This conclusion is at variance with earlier interpretations put forth by others.Rapid broad scale uplift and erosion of the scale identified imply that large volumes of sediment could have been supplied from the northern Appalachian Basin during the Early Cretaceous. This timing for the dominant post-Devonian cooling phase in the basin is not accounted for by recent models of the tectonic evolution of the Appalachian Orogen but is compatible with the change from carbonate to siliciclastic deposition in the Atlantic coastal plain. It is suggested that this style of broad regional uplift without significant deformation is characteristic of a tectonic regime associated with, and subsequent to, continental rifting.Apatite fission track analysis is shown to be a basic tool in providing fundamental limits for thermal history assessment in regional tectonic problems.     

31P solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of aluminum phosphate minerals

This study examines the links between ³¹P solidstate NMR studies of aluminum phosphate minerals and their crystallographic structures. We found that ³¹P isotropic chemical shift values, _iso, carry little information about mineral structures. There seems to be no relation between the chemical shift anisotropy, =₃₃–₁₁ (₃₃>₂₂> ₁₁), and indicies of phosphate-tetrahedra distortion. ³¹P¹H heteronuclear magnetic dipole interactions, on the other hand, carry important information about hydrous phosphate mineral structures, information that should prove to be quite valuable in studies of phosphate adsorbed on mineral surfaces. This interaction can be measured through a variety of qualitative and quantitative experiments. It appears that spin diffusion is so rapid that subtle differences in hydrogen-bonding environments cannot be resolved.     

Climate and economic competitiveness: Florida freezes and the global citrus processing industry

Summary Casual observers of the impacts associated with four recent freezes in Florida's citrus producing areas might be inclined to agree with an assessment by Miami Herald reporters that these freezes had caused the king of citrus to be toppled from its throne, enabling Brazil to take its place. Research on the citrus industry, however, reveals that the impacts of these recent freezes only explain part of the story of the interaction between climate variability and the relationship between the citrus industries of Florida and Brazil. Climate characteristics and their variability have directly as well as indirectly affected the economic competitiveness of citrus producers whose output is in large measure climate-dependent. Climate variability has had direct impacts on Florida's citrus industry by adversely affecting the productivity of citrus groves in some areas, by altering growers' perceptions of freeze probabilities and, occasionally, by suddenly reducing output, thus elevating the price that consumers must pay for that commodity. Indirectly, competition can be affected by climate as a potential producer identifies a weakness in the supply system of an existing industry and seeks to fill the gap.Brazil's involvement in the toppling of King Citrus began not in the early 1980s (as a result of the four freezes in the past six years), but in 1962 as a result of a major freeze in that year, one that sharply increased FCOJ prices by reducing Florida's output. It was then that the climate had an impact on the economic competitiveness of the citrus industry. The records document the steady, almost meteoric, rise in Brazilian FCOJ production and exports. Subsequent freezes only served to abet a process that had been well underway two decades before the recent devastating freezes.As for Florida's ability to continue and perhaps expand its key role in the global citrus economy, the recent freezes do not appear to have fatally damaged that. Rather, those freezes have reawakened Florida's citrus producers to the fact that they are involved in a climate-sensitive industry and have reminded them that the potential for freeze-related problems is never far away. That reawakening has sparked interest in developing hardier citrus varieties, more effective freeze protection methods, and better ways to hedge economically against freeze impacts to the industry.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Generation of Hydrogen Gas as a Result of Drilling Within the Saturated Zone

Hydrogen gas was discovered within the steel casing above standing water in a percussion-drilled borehole on the Hanlord Site in south-central Washington state. In situ measurements of the borehole fluids indicated anoxic, low-Eh (<-400 mV) conditions. Ground water sampled from adjacent wells in the same formation indicated that the ground water was oxygenated. H₂ was generated during percussion drilling, due to the decomposition of borehole waters as a result of aqueous reactions with drilled sediment and steel from the drilling tools or casing. The generation of H₂ within percussion-drilled boreholes that extend below the water table may be more common than previously realized. The ambient concentration of H₂ produced during drilling was limited by microbial activity within the casing-resident fluids. H₂ was generated abiotically in the laboratory, whereby sterilized borehole slurry samples produced 100 times more H₂ than unsterilizcd samples. It appears that H₂ is metabolized by microorganisms and concentrations might be significantly greater if not for microbial metabolism.     

Historical changes in sediments of Pyramid Lake,Nevada, USA: consequences of changes in the water balance of a terminal desert lake

Sediment cores from the shallow and deep basins of Pyramid Lake, Nevada, revealed variations in composition with depth reflecting changes in lake level, river inflow, and lake productivity. Recent sediments from the period of historical record indicate: (1) CaCO₃ and organic content of sediment in the shallow basin decrease at lower lake level, (2) CaCO₃ content of deep basin sediments increases when lake level decreases rapidly, and (3) the inorganic P content of sediments increases with decreasing lake volume. Variations in sediment composition also indicate several periods for which productivity in Pyramid Lake may have been elevated over the past 1000 years. Our data provide strong evidence for increased productivity during the first half of the 20th Century, although the typical pattern for cultural eutrophication was not observed. The organic content of sediments also suggests periods of increased productivity in the lake prior to the discovery and development of the region by white settlers. Indeed, a broad peak in organic fractions during the 1800's originates as an increase starting around 1600. However, periods of changing organic content of sediments also correspond to periods when inflow to the lake was probably at extremes (e.g. drought or flood) indicating that fluctuations in river inflow may be an important factor affecting sediment composition in Pyramid Lake.     

Evaporitic sedimentation and microbial mats in a salina system (Port Fouad,Egypt)

A salina system along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt was investigated. Five sedimentary facies are described. For each facies, the evaporitic sedimentation and the biological conditions are considered. Comparisons of evaporite precipitates in the salina with ancient deposits are made.     

Quaternary evolution of Cedar Creek alluvial fan, montana

Cedar Creek alluvial fan is a textbook example of an alluvial fan because of its fan shape with smooth, concentric contours and excellent symmetry. Similar planimetric shapes have been used to infer uniform fan deposition; however, Cedar Creek alluvial fan is composed of four fan deposits of Quaternary age, Qf1 (oldest) to Qf4 (youngest), indicating that fan deposition was nonuniform in both time and space. Field studies indicate that deposition of Cedar Creek alluvial fan is related to glaciofluvial outwash activity during the Pleistocene and upper-fan entrenchment and lower-fan deposition during the Holocene.Qf1 and Qf2 deposits are sub-horizontally bedded, clast-supported sandy gravels uniformly imbricated upfan. Comparison of soil profiles developed in these deposits to radiogenically-dated chronosequences within the region indicates that Qf1 and Qf2 are correlative with Bull Lake and Pinedale-age deposits, respectively. These relationships are substantiated by physical correlation of Qf1 and Qf2 with Bull Lake and Pinedale moraines, respectively, in the Cedar Creek drainage basin. The sedimentology and timing of Qf1 and Qf2 indicate deposition in high-energy, proglacial, braided streams. Furthermore, the present morphology of Cedar Creek alluvial fan was established largely during aggradation of Qf1 and Qf2 when sediment supply to the fan was sufficient to activate 60% to greater than 90% of the total fan area. During Bull Lake glaciation, the apex of Qf1 deposition formed the apex of Cedar Creek alluvial fan as Qf1 covered more than 90% of the present fan area. During Pinedale glaciation, Qf2 deposition shifted downfan; Qf2 is inset into Qf1 above the intersection point, but below the intersection point it eroded and/or buried Qf1 as it activated as much as 60% of the fan area.Qf3 and Qf4, comprising 21% of the fan area, are inset into Qf2 in the lower fan area. Soil development in Qf3 and Qf4 deposits indicate episodic deposition and entrenchment beginning in early Holocene and continuing to present. A post-glacial decrease in sediment supply to Cedar Creek alluvial fan is indicated by sediment storage within the Cedar Creek drainage basin. Decreased sediment supply to the fan resulted in upper-fan entrenchment of Qf2 and deposition of Qf3 and Qf4 in the lower-fan area.     

Air flow over and through a forest edge: A steady-state numerical simulation

A numerical model was developed to simulate neutrally stratified air flow over and through a forest edge. The spatially averaged equations for turbulent flow in vegetation canopies are derived as the governing equations. A first-order closure scheme with the capability of accounting for the bulk momentum transport process in vegetation canopies is employed. The averaged equations are solved numerically by a fractional time-step method and successive relaxation. The asymptotic solution in time is regarded as the steady-state solution. Comparisons of model output to the field measurements of Raynor (1971) indicate that the model provides a realistic mean flow.Momentum balance computations show that the pressure gradient induced by the wind blowing against the forest edge is significant and has the same order of magnitude as the drag force in the edge region. The edge effect involves the generation of drag forces, the appearance of a large pressure gradient, the upward deflection of mean flow and the transport of momentum into the edge of the canopy.