Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO₂ concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO₂-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth??s environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.     

High spatial resolution hyperspectral mapping of in-stream habitats, depths, and woody debris in mountain streams

This article evaluates the potential of 1-m resolution, 128-band hyperspectral imagery for mapping in-stream habitats, depths, and woody debris in third- to fifth-order streams in the northern Yellowstone region. Maximum likelihood supervised classification using principal component images provided overall classification accuracies for in-stream habitats (glides, riffles, pools, and eddy drop zones) ranging from 69% for third-order streams to 86% for fifth-order streams. This scale dependency of classification accuracy was probably driven by the greater proportion of transitional boundary areas in the smaller streams. Multiple regressions of measured depths (y) versus principal component scores (x₁, x₂,…, x_n) generated R² values ranging from 67% for high-gradient riffles to 99% for glides in a fifth-order reach. R² values were lower in third-order reaches, ranging from 28% for runs and glides to 94% for pools. The less accurate depth estimates obtained for smaller streams probably resulted from the relative increase in the number of mixed pixels, where a wide range of depths and surface turbulence occurred within a single pixel. Matched filter (MF) mapping of woody debris generated overall accuracies of 83% in the fifth-order Lamar River. Accuracy figures for the in-stream habitat and wood mapping may have been misleadingly low because the fine-resolution imagery captured fine-scale variations not mapped by field teams, which in turn generated false “misclassifications” when the image and field maps were compared.The use of high spatial resolution hyperspectral (HSRH) imagery for stream mapping is limited by the need for clear water to measure depth, by any tree cover obscuring the stream, and by the limited availability of airborne hyperspectral sensors. Nonetheless, the high accuracies achieved in northern Yellowstone streams indicate that HSRH imagery can be a powerful tool for watershed-wide mapping, monitoring, and modeling of streams.     

‘I want to take risks,like my mother’: Memory,affect, and Vietnamese masculinities – the legacy of gendered variations in socio-economic mobility during Ðổi mới

Young Vietnamese men who witnessed their mother's changing economic and labour market situations through the early years of Ð?i m?i (the policy of economic liberalization in Vietnam after 1986) have developed conceptions of masculinity that are ambivalent to notions of male power and authority within what is often termed the ‘traditional’ neo-Confucian family. On the basis of the life narratives of a small group of men in their early twenties, the author suggests that the value young men place on their mother's work and familial influence during Ð?i m?i contrasts with the findings of much gender scholarship on women's social and economic (im) mobility in the 1990s in Vietnam and on young men's own masculinist narratives. Most gender-sensitive research in this area has suggested that Vietnamese women remained curtailed in the early 1990s by a resurgence of male-oriented kinship systems and patriarchal structures at household level. However, the author discusses the young men as being equivocal. While invoking broad Confucian tropes, these men remember their mothers as economically dynamic relative to their fathers. This led to the informants citing their mother's histories of economic risk-taking as exemplifying free-market capability. Further, the finding suggests that Vietnamese women's social and economic mobility in the 1990s strongly affected young men's contemporary ideas and practices related to masculinity.     

Sediment budget-based estimates of trace metal inputs to a Chesapeake estuary

This article evaluates whether a sediment budget for the South River, Maryland, can be coupled with metals data from sediment cores to identify and quantify sources of historic metal inputs to marsh and subtidal sediments along the estuary. Metal inputs to estuarine marsh sediments come from fluvial runoff and atmospheric deposition. Metal inputs to subtidal sediments come from atmospheric deposition, fluvial runoff, coastal erosion, and estuarine waters. The metals budget for the estuary indicates that metal inputs from coastal erosion have remained relatively constant since 1840. Historical variations in metal contents of marsh sediments have probably resulted primarily from increasing atmospheric deposition in this century, but prior to 1900 may reflect changing fluvial sources, atmospheric inputs, or factors not quantified by the budget. Residual Pb, Cu, and Zn in the marsh sediments not accounted for by fluvial inputs was low to moderate in 1840, decreased to near zero circa 1910, and by 1987 had increased to levels that were one to ten times greater than those of 1840. Sources of variability in subtidal cores could not be clearly discerned because of geochemical fluxes, turbulent mixing, and bioturbation within the cores. The sediment-metal budgeting approach appears to be a viable method for delineating metal sources in small, relatively simple estuarine systems like the South River and in systems where recent deposition (for example, prograding marshes) prevents use of deep core analysis to identify background levels of metal. In larger systems or systems with more variable sources of sediment and metal input, however, assumptions and measurement errors in the metal budgeting approach suggest that deep core analysis and normalization techniques are probably preferable for identifying anthropogenic impacts.Field and laboratory research conducted at the Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USAField and laboratory research conducted at the Marine and Estuarine Environmental Science Program, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA     

A petrographic and fluid inclusion comparison of silver-poor and silver-rich zinc-lead ores,N.E. Washington State

Many of the zinc-lead deposits of NE Washington State are poorly known examples of Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) mineralization. This study compares inclusion fluids from the Josephine Breccia ores with the later cross-cutting sulfide-bearing quartz veins. The breccia ores are cemented mainly by open space fillings of dolomite, sphalerite, quartz, galena, jasperoid and calcite. Replacement is of minor importance. Ore and gangue deposition occurred over the range 150–250 °C with most of the temperatures less than 200 °C. The aqueous brines typically contain 17–23 equivalent weight percent NaCl with often substantial amounts of Ca and/or Mg chlorides. Homogenization temperatures do not delineate any cooling or paragenetic sequence. The cross-cutting vein quartz contains CO₂-rich inclusions with overall densities usually less than 0.7 g/cc and homogenization temperatures from 250–325 °C. Sulfur isotope analyses yield two populations with the quartz vein ores being lighter (<13 permil CDT) than the average for the conformable ores. The later veins are not remobilized MVT sulfides but represent a separate, high-silver period of mineralization.     

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华岛纳奈莫群的帆翼龙类化石

An unusual jaw found in a calcite nodule from Collishaw Point, Hornby Island, British Columbia (off the east coast of Vancouver Island) represents the first definitive pterosaur found in British Columbia, and the first istiodactylid from Canada.     

The Effects of Ocean Acidification on Feeding and Contest Behaviour by the Beadlet Anemone <Emphasis Type="Italic">Actinia equina</Emphasis>

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are causing oceanic pH to decline worldwide, a phenomenon termed ocean acidification. Mounting experimental evidence indicates that near-future levels of CO₂ will affect calcareous invertebrates such as corals, molluscs and gastropods, by reducing their scope for calcification. Despite extensive research into ocean acidification in recent years, the effects on non-calcifying anthozoans, such as sea anemones, remain little explored. In Western Europe, intertidal anemones such as Actinia equina are abundant, lower trophic-level organisms that function as important ecosystem engineers. Changes to behaviours of these simple predators could have implications for intertidal assemblages. This investigation identified the effects of reduced seawater pH on feeding and contest behaviour by A. equina. Video footage was recorded for A. equina feeding at current-day seawater (pH 8.1), and the least (pH 7.9) and most (pH 7.6) severe end-of-century predictions. Footage was also taken of contests over ownership of space between anemones exposed to reduced pH and those that were not. No statistically significant differences were identified in feeding duration or various aspects of contest behaviour including initiating, winning, inflating acrorhagi, inflicting acrorhagial peels and contest duration. Multivariate analyses showed no effect of pH on a combination of these variables. This provides contrast with other studies where anemones with symbiotic algae thrive in areas of natural increased acidity. Thus, novel experiments using intraspecific contests and resource-holding potential may prove an effective approach to understand sub-lethal consequences of ocean acidification for A. equina, other sea anemones and more broadly for marine ecosystems.     

A well‐established Early–Middle Pleistocene marine sequence on south‐east Zakynthos island,western Greece: Magneto‐biostratigraphic constraints and palaeoclimatic implications

The chronostratigraphy of a long, onshore Early–Middle Pleistocene marine sedimentary sequence on the south‐east part of Zakynthos island, Greece, is presented. Correlation of the succession with the isotope record of Ocean Drilling Program Site 963 reveals the combined influence of tectonics and eustacy in this area. The sequence is divided into three formations by two main unconformities that apparently relate to sea‐level lowstands associated with two major northern hemisphere glaciations, those of marine isotope stages (MIS) 22 and 12. The Zakynthos sequence in many ways is comparable with the Italian Valle di Manche section. Magnetostratigraphic and rock magnetic analyses, supported by biostratigraphy, document the position of the Matuyama/Brunhes Chron boundary (0.77 Ma), the top and base of the Jaramillo Subchron (0.99–1.07 Ma), the Cobb Mountain Subchron (1.173–1.185 Ma) and the top of the Olduvai Subchron (1.78 Ma). The underlying strata are constrained exclusively by detailed nannofossil biostratigraphy extending at least to the lowermost Pleistocene at around 2.54 Ma and therefore certainly incorporating the base of the Olduvai Subchron (1.95 Ma) and possibly the Gauss/Matuyama Chron boundary (2.58 Ma). In addition, a remarkable increase in sedimentation rate (from 3.2 and 28 cm ka^?1 to 167 cm ka^?1) and hence resolution above the Matuyama/Brunhes boundary (Middle Pleistocene) reveals one short‐lived magnetic excursion, possibly 17a (0.66 Ma), within the normal polarity Brunhes Chron. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water flux measurement and prediction in young cashew trees using sap flow data

Measurements of sap flow, meteorological parameters, soil water content and tension were made for 4 months in a young cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) plantation during the 2002 rainy season in Ejura, Ghana. This experiment was part of a sustainable water management project in West Africa. The Granier system was used to measure half‐hourly whole‐tree sap flow. Weather variables were observed with an automatic weather station, whereas soil moisture and tension were measured with a Delta‐T profile probe and tensiometers respectively. Clearness index (CI), a measure of the sky condition, was significantly correlated with tree transpiration (r² = 0·73) and potential evaporation (r² = 0·86). Both diurnal and daily stomata conductance were poorly correlated with the climatic variables. Estimated daily canopy conductance g_c ranged from 4·0 to 21·2 mm s⁻¹, with a mean value of 8·0 ± 3·3 mm s⁻¹. Water flux variation was related to a range of environmental variables: soil water content, air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and vapour pressure deficit. Linear and non‐linear regression models, as well as a modified Priestley–Taylor formula, were fitted with transpiration, and the well‐correlated variables, using half‐hourly measurements. Measured and predicted transpiration using these regression models were in good agreement, with r² ranging from 0·71 to 0·84. The computed measure of accuracy δ indicated that a non‐linear model is better than its corresponding linear one. Furthermore, solar radiation, CI, clouds and rain were found to influence tree water flux. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A scientifically based nationwide assessment of groundwater quality in the United States

Beginning in 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey began an effort to develop a National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The basic premise underlying this initiative is that a better understanding of the quality of water resources across the country, both surface- and groundwater, is needed to develop effective programs and policies to meet the nation's water-quality concerns. The program will focus on water-quality conditions that are prevalent or large in scale, such as occur from nonpoint sources of pollution or from a high density of point sources.The design of the program is substantially different from the traditional approach of a diffuse national monitoring network.The major activities of the assessment program will be clustered within a set of hydrologic systems (river basins and aquifer systems), referred to as study units. In aggregate, the study units will account for a large part of the nation's water use and represent a wide range of settings across the country.Unique attributes of the program include: (1) the use of consistent study approaches, field and laboratory methods, water-quality measurements, and ancillary data measurements for all study units; (2) the development of a progressive understanding of water-quality conditions and trends in each study unit through long-term studies that rotate periods of intensive data collection and analysis with periods during which the assessment activities are less intensive; and (3) the focus of considerable effort on synthesizing results from among the study units to provide information on regional and national water-quality issues.Paper presented at 28th International Geological Congress, Washington, D.C., July 10, 1989.