The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

The fall and recovery of the Tagish Lake meteorite

Abstract— The Tagish Lake C2 (ungrouped) carbonaceous chondrite fall of January 18, 2000, delivered ?10 kg of one of the most primitive and physically weak meteorites yet studied. In this paper, we report the detailed circumstances of the fall and the recovery of all documented Tagish Lake fragments from a strewnfield at least 16 km long and 3 to 4 km wide. Nearly 1 kg of “pristine” meteorites were collected one week after the fall before new snow covered the strewnfield; the majority of the recovered mass was collected during the spring melt. Ground eyewitnesses and a variety of instrument‐recorded observations of the Tagish Lake fireball provide a refined estimate of the fireball trajectory. From its calculated orbit and its similarity to the remotely sensed properties of the D‐ and P‐class asteroids, the Tagish Lake carbonaceous chondrite apparently represents these outer belt asteroids. The cosmogenic nuclide results and modeled production indicate a prefall radius of 2.1–2.4 m (corresponding to 60–90 tons) consistent with the observed fireball energy release. The bulk oxygen‐isotope compositions plot just below the terrestrial fractionation line (TFL), following a trend similar to the CM meteorite mixing line. The bulk density of the Tagish Lake material (1.64 ± 0.02 g/cm³) is the same, within uncertainty, as the total bulk densities of several C‐class and especially D‐ and P‐class asteroids. The high microporosity of Tagish Lake samples (?40%) provides an obvious candidate material for the composition of low bulk density primitive asteroids.     

The origin of plagioclase phenocrysts in basalts from continental monogenetic volcanoes of the Kaikohe-Bay of Islands field,New Zealand: implications for magmatic assembly and ascent

Late Quaternary, porphyritic basalts erupted in the Kaikohe-Bay of Islands area, New Zealand, provide an opportunity to explore the crystallization and ascent history of small volume magmas in an intra-continental monogenetic volcano field. The plagioclase phenocrysts represent a diverse crystal cargo. Most of the crystals have a rim growth that is compositionally similar to groundmass plagioclase (~?An₆₅) and is in equilibrium with the host basalt rock. The rims surround a resorbed core that is either less calcic (~?An_20–45) or more calcic (>?An₇₀), having crystallized in more differentiated or more primitive melts, respectively. The relic cores, particularly those that are less calcic (<?~?An₄₅), have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios that are either mantle-like (~?0.7030) or crustal-like (~?0.7040 to 0.7060), indicating some are antecrysts formed in melts fractionated from plutonic basaltic forerunners, while others are true xenocrysts from greywacke basement and/or Miocene arc volcanics. It is envisaged that intrusive basaltic forerunners produced a zone where various degrees of crustal assimilation and fractional crystallization occurred. The erupted basalts represent mafic recharge of this system, as indicated by the final crystal rim growths around the entrained antecrystic and xenocrystic cargo. The recharge also entrained cognate gabbros that occur as inclusions, and produced mingled groundmasses. Multi-stage magmatic ascent and interaction is indicated, and is consistent with the presence of a partial melt body in the lower crust detected by geophysical methods. This crystallization history contrasts with traditional concepts of low-flux basaltic systems where rapid ascent from the mantle is inferred. From a hazards perspective, the magmatic system inferred here increases the likelihood of detecting eruption precursor phenomena such as seismicity, degassing and surface deformation.