Determination of Electromagnetic Source Direction as an Eigenvalue Problem

Low-frequency solar and interplanetary radio bursts are generated at frequencies below the ionospheric plasma cutoff and must therefore be measured in space, with deployable antenna systems. The problem of measuring both the general direction and polarization of an electromagnetic source is commonly solved by iterative fitting methods such as linear regression that deal simultaneously with both directional and polarization parameters. We have developed a scheme that separates the problem of deriving the source direction from that of determining the polarization, avoiding iteration in a multi-dimensional manifold. The crux of the method is to first determine the source direction independently of concerns as to its polarization. Once the source direction is known, its direct characterization in terms of Stokes vectors, in a single iteration if desired, is relatively simple. This study applies the source-direction determination to radio signatures of flares received by STEREO. We studied two previously analyzed radio type III bursts and found that the results of the eigenvalue decomposition technique are consistent with those obtained previously by Reiner et al. (Solar Phys. 259, 255, 2009). For the type III burst observed on 7 December 2007, the difference in travel times from the derived source location to STEREO A and B is the same as the difference in the onset times of the burst profiles measured by the two spacecraft. This is consistent with emission originating from a single, relatively compact source. For the second event of 29 January 2008, the relative timing does not agree, suggesting emission from two sources separated by 0.1 AU, or perhaps from an elongated region encompassing the apparent source locations.     

An explicit one-dimensional consolidation solution with semi-permeable drainage boundary for unsaturated soil

Existing solutions for analyzing one-dimensional (1-D) consolidation of unsaturated soil are only derived to cater to two extreme drainage conditions (fully drained and undrained). This study presents a new explicit solution for 1-D consolidation of unsaturated soil with semi-permeable drainage boundary. Based on the assumptions of two independent stress variables and the governing equations proposed by Fredlund, the eigenfunction expansion method is adopted to develop an explicit analytical solution to calculate excess pore-water and pore-air pressures in an unsaturated soil when it is subjected to external loads. The developed general solutions are expressed in terms of depth, z, and time, t. For the semi-permeable drainage boundary, eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in the space domain are developed. The technique of Laplace transform is used to solve the coupled ordinary differential equations in the time domain. The newly derived explicit solution is verified with the existing semi-analytical method in the literature, and an excellent agreement is obtained. Compared with the semi-analytical solution, the newly derived analytical solution is more straightforward and explicit so that this solution is relatively easier to be implemented into a computer program to carry out a preliminary assessment of 1-D consolidation of unsaturated soil.     

A comparison of methods for low streamflow estimation from spot measurements

Low streamflow statistic estimators at ungauged river sites generally have large errors and uncertainties. This can be due to many reasons, including lack of data, complex hydrologic processes, and the inadequate or improper characterization of watershed hydrogeology. One potential solution is to take a small number of streamflow measurements at an ungauged site to either estimate hydrogeologic indices or transfer information from a nearby site using concurrent streamflow measurements. An analysis of four low streamflow estimation techniques, regional regression, regional plus hydrogeologic indices, baseflow correlation, and scaling, was performed within the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint watershed, a U.S. Geological Survey WaterSMART region in the south‐eastern United States. The latter three methods employ a nominal number of spot measurements at the ungauged site to improve low streamflow estimation. Results indicate that baseflow correlation and scaling methods, which transfer information from a donor site, can produce improved low streamflow estimators when spot measurements are available. Estimation of hydrogeologic indices from spot measurements improves regional regression models, with the baseflow recession constant having more explanatory power than the aquifer time constant, but these models are generally outperformed by baseflow correlation and scaling.     

Precaution and proportionality in the management of global environmental change

The precautionary principle is a mandate to tread cautiously when managing novel threats to the environment or human health. A major obstacle when applying the principle at the international level is disagreement about how precautionary efforts should be constrained to ensure that policy costs are proportional to the attained level of protection. Proportionality is an unresolved question when preliminary evidence precludes decision-makers from assigning probabilities over future events. The paper suggests practical analytical tools for communicating ex ante trade-offs when probabilities are unavailable. The tools could be used to facilitate discussion and compromise when implementing precautionary decisions in international settings where cooperation is important. The approach is demonstrated in an application to climate policy that uses the integrated assessment model DICE (Nordhaus, 2008). The paper also situates the task of precautionary decision-making within the broader context of implementing a precautionary response at the international level.     

Partial melting due to breakdown of an epidote‐group mineral during exhumation of ultrahigh‐pressure eclogite: An example from the North‐East Greenland Caledonides

In the North‐East Greenland Caledonides, P–T conditions and textures are consistent with partial melting of ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) eclogite during exhumation. The eclogite contains a peak assemblage of garnet, omphacite, kyanite, coesite, rutile, and clinozoisite; in addition, phengite is inferred to have been present at peak conditions. An isochemical phase equilibrium diagram, along with garnet isopleths, constrains peak P–T conditions to be subsolidus at 3.4 GPa and 940°C. Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry on inclusions in garnet yields values of ~820°C at 3.4 GPa. In the eclogite, plagioclase may exhibit cuspate textures against surrounding omphacite and has low dihedral angles in plagioclase–clinopyroxene–garnet aggregates, features that are consistent with former melt–solid–solid boundaries and crystallized melt pockets. Graphic intergrowths of plagioclase and amphibole are present in the matrix. Small euhedral neoblasts of garnet against plagioclase are interpreted as formed from a peritectic reaction during partial melting. Polymineralic inclusions of albite+K‐feldspar and clinopyroxene+quartz±kyanite±plagioclase in large anhedral garnet display plagioclase cusps pointing into the host, which are interpreted as crystallized melt pockets. These textures, along with the mineral composition, suggest partial melting of the eclogite by reactions involving phengite and, to a large extent, an epidote‐group mineral. Calculated and experimentally determined phase relations from the literature reveal that partial melting occurred on the exhumation path, at pressures below the coesite to quartz transition. A calculated P–T phase diagram for a former melt‐bearing domain shows that the formation of the peritectic garnet rim occurred at 1.4 GPa and 900°C, with an assemblage of clinopyroxene, amphibole, and plagioclase equilibrated at 1.3 GPa and 720°C. Isochemical phase equilibrium modelling of a symplectite of clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and amphibole after omphacite, combined with the mineral composition, yields a P–T range at 1.0–1. 6 GPa, 680–1,000°C. The assemblage of amphibole and plagioclase is estimated to reach equilibrium at 717–732°C, calculated by amphibole–plagioclase thermometry for the former melt‐bearing domain and symplectite respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that partial melt formed in the UHP eclogite through breakdown of an epidote‐group mineral with minor involvement of phengite during exhumation from peak pressure; melt was subsequently crystallized on the cooling path.     

Effect of combined translation and torsion on undrained uplift capacity of plate anchors: Plastic limit analysis (PLA) solution

Uplift capacity of plate anchors has been the focus of numerous studies, because anchor plates are designed for pull‐out in normal operating conditions. However, the response of plate anchors under 6‐degrees‐of‐freedom loading caused during extreme loading conditions is poorly understood. The purpose of this study is to propose a simple yet sufficiently accurate analytical solution to investigate the behavior of plate anchor under combined in‐plane translation and torsion and to evaluate its effect on the plate uplift bearing capacity. To this end, a modified plastic limit analysis (PLA) approach is introduced and compared with limit equilibrium and simplified upper bound baseline solutions. The proposed method is verified with 3‐dimensional finite element. The variables considered in this study include plate aspect ratio, plate thickness, as well as load direction and eccentricity. Results of analytical solutions indicate the insensitivity of the “shape” of the shear‐torsion yield envelope to plate thickness. This finding facilitates the use of simplified yet reasonable yield envelope for infinitely thin plate obtained from simplified PLA approach for other plate thicknesses. The “size” of the failure envelope (controlled by pure torsional and translational capacity) could be predicted fairly accurately by PLA and limit equilibrium methods. Combination of these analytical methods offers a simple yet reasonably accurate solution to describe shear‐torsion response of anchor plate. The obtained shear‐torsion yield envelope is then fitted in the generalized 6‐degrees‐of‐freedom yield surface which describes the reducing effect of moment, torsion, and planar forces on the uplift capacity of plate.     

Addressing snow model uncertainty for hydrologic prediction

Streamflow forecasting methods are moving towards probabilistic approaches that quantify the uncertainty associated with the various sources of error in the forecasting process. Multi-model averaging methods which try to address modeling deficiencies by considering multiple models are gaining much popularity. We have applied the Bayesian Model Averaging method to an ensemble of twelve snow models that vary in their heat and melt algorithms, parameterization, and/or albedo estimation method. Three of the models use the temperature-based heat and melt routines of the SNOW17 snow accumulation and ablation model. Nine models use heat and melt routines that are based on a simplified energy balance approach, and are varied by using three different albedo estimation schemes. Finally, different parameter sets were identified through automatic calibration with three objective functions. All models use the snow accumulation, liquid water transport, and ground surface heat exchange processes of the SNOW17. The resulting twelve snow models were combined using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The individual models, BMA predictive mean, and BMA predictive variance were evaluated for six SNOTEL sites in the western U.S. The models performed best and the BMA variance was lowest at the colder sites with high winter precipitation and little mid-winter melting. An individual snow model would often outperform the BMA predictive mean. However, observed snow water equivalent (SWE) was captured within the 95% confidence intervals of the BMA variance on average 80% of the time at all sites. Results are promising that consideration of multiple snow structures would provide useful uncertainty information for probabilistic hydrologic prediction.     

Endemic avifaunal biodiversity and tropical forest loss in Makira, a mountainous Pacific island

Anthropogenic habitat changes and the introduction of pigs, dogs, cats and rats have caused a catastrophic decline in the terrestrial biodiversity of Pacific archipelagos. At present, economic globalization and an increased demand for timber are promoting industrial logging and plantation expansion. Commercial logging can be sustainable but in practice it more often leads to land degradation, especially on small flat islands. On large and mountainous islands, however, more modest impacts can be expected as the narrowly endemic species tend to inhabit montane forests where logging is difficult. In this study we use ornithological data collected at different elevations to assess the extent to which the avifauna of Makira, a large mountainous island in Melanesia, will be affected by deforestation of the lowlands, most of which are under timber concessions. Our data suggest that a majority of the endemic bird species use lowland forest to some extent and that this may even apply to species hitherto associated with montane forest. If current commercial forestry programmes are continued, the forest habitat may be disturbed or lost over large parts of Makira, potentially undermining the natural resource base for the local subsistence economy, exacerbating climate change and threatening the integrity of one of the most important areas for biodiversity conservation on earth. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the habitat requirements of endemic species and the urgency of establishing and effectively managing community-based protected areas in suitable lowland forests of the Pacific.     

Anthropogenic impacts recorded in recent sediments from Otisco Lake,New York,USA

Geochemical analysis of ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment cores from Otisco Lake (New York) combined with analysis of recent land cover change in the watershed revealed the history of land use change, lake management, and industrial pollution since European settlement in the northeastern US. Clearance of forestland for agriculture characterized the early settlement era that was marked in the Otisco Lake sediments by a decline in organic carbon (OC) and OC:N ratios, which indicate a change in the sources of organic matter to the lake. Agricultural land use reached its greatest areal extent in the Otisco watershed around 1900, followed by field abandonment and reforestation over the last century. In the 1920s sediment accumulation rates began to increase coincident with residential development along the lake shore. Nitrogen and organic carbon, which are transported from the watershed, show increased fluxes to the lake in response to this change. Deposition of inorganic carbon increased markedly over a short period from the 1940s to the 1980s, which is consistent with enhanced mobilization of watershed calcium by increased acidic deposition, followed by alkalinization of the lake waters and calcite precipitation. An increase in copper content in the sediments reflects application, since 1942, of the algicide copper sulfate to the lake waters to control algal blooms. This CuSO₄ marker confirmed the accuracy of the ²¹⁰Pb chronology. Atmospheric mercury (Hg) fluxes to the lake were affected by increased sediment transport from the watershed. The maximum Hg peak in the sediment record, however, was dated to the early 1970s and coincides with maximum Hg emissions to the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region.