Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

Seasonal movement and groundwater flow mechanism in an unsaturated saprolitic hillslope

Numerous field monitoring programs have been conducted to investigate the performance of an unsaturated soil slope subjected to rainfalls in wet seasons. Most case histories focus on the response of matric suction, which is one of the two stress-state variables governing unsaturated soil behaviour. However, effects due to another variable, net normal stress, are often ignored. Also, slope performance under alternative wet and dry seasons is rarely reported and analysed. In this study, a saprolitic hillslope situated in Hong Kong was instrumented heavily to investigate its seasonal movement due to changes of the two variables and also groundwater flow mechanism. Two-year seasonal variations of matric suction and net normal stress were monitored by tensiometers together with heat dissipation matric water potential sensors and earth pressure cells, respectively. During heavy rainstorms in wet season, there was a substantial recharge of the main groundwater table, causing a significant increase of positive pore-water pressure in deeper depths. Rupture surface likely developed at depths between 5.5 and 6 m, hence resulting in a “deep-seated” mode of downslope movement. The downslope movement resulted in a peak increase of horizontal stress. In dry seasons, matric suction of up to 190 kPa was recorded, and the associated soil shrinkage led to substantial upslope rebounds. The stress built up in wet seasons hence reduced. After monitoring period of 2 years, downslope ratcheting is identified. Up to 40 % of the downslope displacements were recovered by the upslope rebounds.     

Saltwater intrusion and nitrate pollution in the coastal aquifer of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Dar es Salaam Quaternary coastal aquifer is a major source of water supply in Dar es Salaam City used for domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. However, groundwater overdraft and contamination are the major problems affecting the aquifer system. This study aims to define the principal hydrogeochemical processes controlling groundwater quality in the coastal strip of Dar es Salaam and to investigate whether the threats of seawater intrusion and pollution are influencing groundwater quality. Major cations and anions analysed in 134 groundwater samples reveal that groundwater is mainly affected by four factors: dissolution of calcite and dolomite, weathering of silicate minerals, seawater intrusion due to aquifer overexploitation, and nitrate pollution mainly caused by the use of pit latrines and septic tanks. High enrichment of Na⁺ and Cl^? near the coast gives an indication of seawater intrusion into the aquifer as also supported from the Na–Cl signature on the Piper diagram. The boreholes close to the coast have much higher Na/Cl molar ratios than the boreholes located further inland. The dissolution of calcite and dolomite in recharge areas results in Ca–HCO₃ and Ca–Mg–HCO₃ groundwater types. Further along flow paths, Ca²⁺ and Na⁺ ion exchange causes groundwater evolution to Na–HCO₃ type. From the PHREEQC simulation model, it appears that groundwater is undersaturated to slightly oversaturated with respect to the calcite and dolomite minerals. The results of this study provide important information required for the protection of the aquifer system.     

A preliminary methods comparison for measurement of dissolved organic nitrogen in seawater

Routine determination of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) is performed in numerous laboratories around the world using one of three families of methods: UV oxidation (UV), persulfate oxidation (PO), or high temperature combustion (HTC). Essentially all routine methods measure total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and calculate DON by subtracting the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). While there is currently no strong suggestion that any of these methods is inadequate, there are continuing suspicions of slight inaccuracy by UV methods.This is a report of a broad community methods comparison where 29 sets (7 UV, 13 PO, and 9 HTC) of TDN analyses were performed on five samples with varying TDN and DIN concentrations. Analyses were done in a “blind” procedure with results sent to the first author. With editing out one set of extreme outliers (representing 5 out of 145 ampoules analyzed), the community comparability for analyzing the TDN samples was in the 8–28% range (coefficient of variation representing one standard deviation for the five individual samples by 28 analyses). When DIN concentrations were subtracted uniformly (single DIN value for each sample), the comparability was obviously worse (19–46% cv). This comparison represents a larger and more diverse set of analyses, but the overall comparability is only marginally better than that of the Seattle workshop of a decade ago. Grouping methods, little difference was seen other than inconclusive evidence that the UV methods gave TDN values for several of the samples higher than HTC methods. Since there was much scatter for each of the groups of methods and for all analyses when grouped, it is thought that more uniformity in procedures is probably needed. An important unplanned observation is that variability in DIN analyses (used in determining the final analyte in most UV and PO methods) is essentially as large as the variability in the TDN analyses.This exercise should not be viewed as a qualification exercise for the analysts, but should instead be considered a broad preliminary test of the comparison of the families of methods being used in various laboratories around the world. Based on many independent analyses here, none of the routinely used methods appears to be grossly inaccurate, thus, most routine TDN analyses being reported in the literature are apparently accurate. However, it is not reassuring that the ability of the international community to determine DON in deep oceanic waters continues to be poor. It is suggested that as an outgrowth of this paper, analysts using UV and PO methods experiment and look more carefully at the completeness of DIN conversion to the final analyte and also at the accuracy of their analysis of the final analyte. HTC methods appear to be relatively easy and convenient and have potential for routine adoption. Several of the authors of this paper are currently working together on an interlaboratory comparison on HTC methodology.     

Radiative transfer analyses of Titan’s tropical atmosphere

Titan’s optical and near-IR spectra result primarily from the scattering of sunlight by haze and its absorption by methane. With a column abundance of 92 km amagat (11 times that of Earth), Titan’s atmosphere is optically thick and only ～10% of the incident solar radiation reaches the surface, compared to 57% on Earth. Such a formidable atmosphere obstructs investigations of the moon’s lower troposphere and surface, which are highly sensitive to the radiative transfer treatment of methane absorption and haze scattering. The absorption and scattering characteristics of Titan’s atmosphere have been constrained by the Huygens Probe Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) experiment for conditions at the probe landing site (Tomasko, M.G., Bézard, B., Doose, L., Engel, S., Karkoschka, E. [2008a]. Planet. Space Sci. 56, 624–247; Tomasko, M.G. et al. [2008b]. Planet. Space Sci. 56, 669–707). Cassini’s Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) data indicate that the rest of the atmosphere (except for the polar regions) can be understood with small perturbations in the high haze structure determined at the landing site (Penteado, P.F., Griffith, C.A., Tomasko, M.G., Engel, S., See, C., Doose, L., Baines, K.H., Brown, R.H., Buratti, B.J., Clark, R., Nicholson, P., Sotin, C. [2010]. Icarus 206, 352–365). However the in situ measurements were analyzed with a doubling and adding radiative transfer calculation that differs considerably from the discrete ordinates codes used to interpret remote data from Cassini and ground-based measurements. In addition, the calibration of the VIMS data with respect to the DISR data has not yet been tested. Here, VIMS data of the probe landing site are analyzed with the DISR radiative transfer method and the faster discrete ordinates radiative transfer calculation; both models are consistent (to within 0.3%) and reproduce the scattering and absorption characteristics derived from in situ measurements. Constraints on the atmospheric opacity at wavelengths outside those measured by DISR, that is from 1.6 to 5.0 μm, are derived using clouds as diffuse reflectors in order to derive Titan’s surface albedo to within a few percent error and cloud altitudes to within 5 km error. VIMS spectra of Titan at 2.6–3.2 μm indicate not only spectral features due to CH₄ and CH₃D (Rannou, P., Cours, T., Le Mouélic, S., Rodriguez, S., Sotin, C., Drossart, P., Brown, R. [2010]. Icarus 208, 850–867), but also a fairly uniform absorption of unknown source, equivalent to the effects of a darkening of the haze to a single scattering albedo of 0.63 ± 0.05. Titan’s 4.8 μm spectrum point to a haze optical depth of 0.2 at that wavelength. Cloud spectra at 2 μm indicate that the far wings of the Voigt profile extend 460 cm^?1 from methane line centers. This paper releases the doubling and adding radiative transfer code developed by the DISR team, so that future studies of Titan’s atmosphere and surface are consistent with the findings by the Huygens Probe. We derive the surface albedo at eight spectral regions of the 8 × 12 km² area surrounding the Huygens landing site. Within the 0.4–1.6 μm spectral region our surface albedos match DISR measurements, indicating that DISR and VIMS measurements are consistently calibrated. These values together with albedos at longer 1.9–5.0 μm wavelengths, not sampled by DISR, resemble a dark version of the spectrum of Ganymede’s icy leading hemisphere. The eight surface albedos of the landing site are consistent with, but not deterministic of, exposed water ice with dark impurities.     

The effects of meteorite impacts on the availability of bioessential elements for endolithic organisms

Abstract– Meteorite impacts, one of the most ubiquitous processes in the solar system, have the ability to destroy as well as create habitats for life. The impact process can increase the translucency and porosity of the target substrate, as well as mobilize biologically relevant elements within the substrate. For endolithic organisms, this process has important implications, especially in extreme environments where they are forced to seek refuge in the interior of rocks. Here, we show that unshocked target rocks and rocks that have experienced pressures up to about 80 GPa from the Haughton impact structure, Devon Island, Canada, possess a small, but discernible change in bulk chemistry within the major oxide analysis. However, changes in the distribution of elements did occur with increasing shock level for both the sedimentary and crystalline target. Both the crystalline and sedimentary target rocks contain significant amounts of glasses at higher shock levels (up to about 95% by volume), which would improve the availability of these elements to potential microbial endoliths as glasses are more easily dissolved by organic acids. The implication that impact events do not impoverish their capacity to serve as a “substrate” through volatilization is important with respect to analogous impact structures on Mars. After the deleterious effects of the direct meteorite impact, any microorganisms on Mars would have benefited from the input of heat, the mobilization of a possible frozen groundwater system, as well as increased translucency, porosity, and trace nutrient availability of the target substrate.     

Cosmic‐ray exposure age and preatmospheric size of the Bunburra Rockhole achondrite

Abstract– Bunburra Rockhole is the first meteorite fall photographed and recovered by the Desert Fireball Network in Australia. It is classified as an ungrouped achondrite similar in mineralogical and chemical composition to eucrites, but it has a distinct oxygen isotope composition. The question is if achondrites like Bunburra Rockhole originate from the same parent body as the howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) meteorites or from several separate, differentiated parent bodies. To address this question, we measured cosmogenic radionuclides and noble gases in the Bunburra Rockhole achondrite. The short‐lived radionuclides ²²Na and ⁵⁴Mn confirm that Bunburra Rockhole is a recent fall. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl as well as the ²²Ne/²¹Ne ratio indicate that Bunburra Rockhole was a relatively small object (R approximately 15 cm) in space, consistent with the photographic fireball observations. The cosmogenic ³⁸Ar concentration yields a cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) age of 22 ± 3 Myr, whereas ²¹Ne and ³He yield approximately 30% and approximately 60% lower ages, respectively, due to loss of cosmogenic He and Ne, mainly from plagioclase. With a CRE age of 22 Myr, Bunburra Rockhole is the first anomalous eucrite that overlaps with the main CRE peak of the HED meteorites. The radiogenic K‐Ar age of 4.1 Gyr is consistent with the U‐Pb age, while the young U,Th‐He age of approximately 1.4 Gyr indicates that Bunburra Rockhole lost radiogenic ⁴He more recently.     

Spatial variation in elephant impact on the Zambezi teak forest in the Chobe national park,Botswana

Abstract

Tectonic mapping and geologic evolution of a region were historically conducted on the basis of field observations. After the advent of remote sensing technology, tectonic mapping became much easier and structural mapping through imagery has gained credibility and suitability in regional mapping, tectonic evolution and modeling. In this regard, an attempt has been made to make use of the satellite technology to bring out the structural trends and the fracture/lineament pattern in Biligirirangan region of Northern Tamil Nadu through satellite remote sensing. The folded architecture in Biligirirangan region has evolved from structural trends. The subsurface structures of the region were derived through resistivity contours and resistivity images created by GIS software.

The surficial information derived from the satellite imagery and subsurface structures derived from the resistivity contours and images were integrated with field observations. This integration has given a clear tectonic picture of the Biligirirangan region and the tectonic structures were then analysed for tectonic forces, evolution and modeling.

The study determined that the Structural trends were mostly in a N‐S direction and the folds were of isoclinal type with alternating synclinal and anticlinal folds of an easterly dipping nature. These folds in conjunction with the lineaments have brought out the palaeostress pattern of the Biligirirangan region. The study further suggests that the regional compressive force trending in ENE‐WSW direction was responsible for the present configuration of folds. In addition, the study also focuses the efficacy of the satellite imagery in tectonic analysis and the resistivity contours and images for the subsurface structural analysis.     

Empirical statistical characterization and regionalization of amplitude–duration–frequency curves for extreme peak flows in the Lake Victoria Basin,East Africa

Abstract

This paper focuses on a regionalization attempt to partly solve data limitation problems in statistical analysis of high flows to derive discharge–duration–frequency (QDF) relationships. The analysis is based on 24 selected catchments in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa. Characteristics of the theoretical QDF relationships were parameterized to capture their slopes of extreme value distributions (evd), tail behaviour and scaling measures. To enable QDF estimates to be obtained for ungauged catchments, interdependence relationships between the QDF parameters were identified, and regional regression models were developed to explain the regional difference in these parameters from physiographic characteristics. In validation of the regression models, from the lowest (5 years) to the highest (25 years) return periods considered, the percentage bias in the QDF estimates ranged from –2% for the 5-year return period to 27% for 25-year return period.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Removal of Fluoride from Aqueous Solutions by Adsorption Using a Siliceous Mineral of a Kenyan Origin

The problem of high fluoride in water sources in Africa and the rest of the developing world has exacerbated in the latest past due to increasing shortage of water. More people are being exposed to high water fluoride resulting in elevated levels of fluorosis in the societies. Fluoride (F) adsorption from solutions using a siliceous mineral from Kenya (M1) was studied on batch basis and results verified on high fluoride water using fixed‐bed column experiments. About 100% batch F adsorption was achieved at 200 mg/L F concentration, 0.5 g/mL adsorbent dosage, 303–333 K, and pH 3.4 ± 0.2. Based on Giles classifications, F adsorption isotherm was found to be an H3 type isotherm. The equilibrium data was correlated to Freundlich and Langmuir models and the maximum Langmuir adsorption capacity was found to be 12.4 mg/g. Column experiments were conducted for different fluoride concentrations, bed depths, and flow rates. The F breakthrough curves were analyzed using the Thomas model and efficient F adsorption was found to occur at low flow rates and low influent concentrations. The Thomas F adsorption capacity (11.7 mg/g) was consistent with the Langmuir isotherm capacity showing that M1 could be applied as an inexpensive medium for water defluoridation.