Refinement of the late Quaternary geologic history of Erebus volcano,Antarctica using Ar/Ar and Cl age determinations

Six new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and three cosmogenic ³⁶Cl age determinations provide new insight into the late Quaternary eruptive history of Erebus volcano. Anorthoclase from 3 lava flows on the caldera rim have ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 23 ± 12, 81 ± 3 and 172 ± 10 ka (all uncertainties 2σ). The ages confirm the presence of a second, younger, superimposed caldera near the southwestern margin of the summit plateau and show that eruptive activity has occurred in the summit region for 77 ± 13 ka longer than previously thought. Trachyte from “Ice Station” on the eastern flank is 159 ± 2 ka, similar in age to those at Bomb Peak and Aurora Cliffs. The widespread occurrences of trachyte on the eastern flank of Erebus suggest a major previously unrecognized episode of trachytic volcanism. The trachyte lavas are chemically and isotopically distinct from alkaline lavas erupted contemporaneously in the summit region < 5 km away.     

The rheology of polymineralic rocks — an approach

Deduced from empirical and theoretical work, a model is proposed for the rheology of bi- and polyphase rocks based on the rheology of the components, their volume fractions, and their geometrical distribution. The model is formulated for the common case where some minerals deform by crystall plasticity at steady state and others, stronger ones, deform in the vincinity of the brittle-ductile transition.The model results from a combination of a load-carrying framework model and a two-block model. The first model is valid for the field, where stress is mainly accommodated by interconnecting stronger phases. The second model describes the case where strain is concentrated mainly within the weaker phase. The transition-point from one partial-model to the other depends on the material properties of the minerals involved. With increasing strain, it shifts first to higher then to lower contents of weaker materials, due to an increase of contrast in competence and to the development of a mechanically induced compositional foliation. Finally, the rheology of the resulting well foliated rock is dominated by the rheology of the weakest component.

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Zusammenfassung Basierend auf empirischen und theoretischen Arbeiten wird ein Modell für zwei- und mehrphasige Gesteine vorgestellt, mit dem die Gesamt-Rheologie als Funktion der Rheologien der einzelnen Phasen, ihren volumenmäßigen Anteilen am Gesamtgestein und ihrer geometrischen Verteilung formuliert werden kann.Das Modell entsteht durch die Verbindung zweier Teil-Modelle. Das eine nimmt ein tragendes Gerüst, aufgebaut durch härtere, vorwiegend spröd bis kataklastisch deformierende Mineralien an. Das zweite gilt für den Bereich, wo die Verformung vollständig durch weiche Komponenten aufgenommen wird.Der Übergang vom Gültigkeitsbereich des einen in denjenigen des anderen Teilmodells ist eine Funktion der Materialeigenschaften der beteiligten Mineralien. Er verlagert sich mit zunehmender Deformation zuerst in Richtung höherer, dann in Richtung niedrigerer Anteile von weicheren Komponenten, bedingt einerseits durch einen zunehmenden Kompetenzkontrast, andererseits durch die zunehmende, mechanisch bedingte Ausbildung einer Stoffbänderung. Die Rheologie des schlußendlich vollständig gebänderten Gesteins wird weitgehendst von der Rheologie der weichsten Komponente kontrolliert.

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Résumé L'auteur, à partir de données empiriques et de travaux théoriques, présente un modèle de la rhéologie des roches biet poly-phasées, dans lequel cette propriété apparaît comme une fonction de la rhéologie de chacune des phases, des proportions en volume de celles-ci et de leurs relations géométriques. Ce modèle s'applique au cas le plus répandu dans lequel certains minéraux ont un comportement proche de la transition cassant-ductile, tandis que les autres fluent plastiquement à contrainte constante à l'intervention de processus intra-cristallins.Le modèle est la synthèse de deux modèles partiels. Le premier correspond au cas où la phase compétente forme un squelette absorbant la plus grande part de la contrainte («load-carrying framework model»). Le deuxième s'applique au cas où la déformation se concentre presque uniquement dans la phase incompétente («two bock model»). La transition d'un modèle partiel à l'autre dépend des propriétés physiques de ces deux phases. Lors d'une déformation progressive cette transition se déplace dans un premier temps vers les plus grandes teneurs en matériau moins compétent, en raison de l'accroissement de la différence de compétence. Puis elle glisse, au contraire, vers les plus petites teneurs en raison du développement d'un rubanement compositionnel d'origine mécanique. Finalement la rhéologie d'une roche ainsi entièrement rubanée est déterminée essentiellement par la rhéologie du matériau le moins compétent.

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Flood-tide Delta Morphological Change at the Gippsland Lakes Artificial Entrance,Australia (1889–2009)

Analysis of historical survey and navigation charts, aerial imagery, and digital hydro-data (representing a time-series of 1889–2009) allows the morphological evolution of a flood-tide delta at the artificial entrance to the Gippsland Lakes (Victoria, Australia) to be visualised and quantified. Analysis shows that flood-tide delta growth has imposed progressively greater demands upon port managers for publicly funded maintenance dredging. This flood-tide delta growth corresponds with a progressive diminution of Gippsland Lakes catchment river discharge volumes, and dampening of flow variability, due to both regional precipitation pattern changes and changes in catchment water resource allocation. Future climate change predictions for the Gippsland Lakes catchment and coastal area suggest both further decreases in catchment river discharge, and changing sediment flux along this sector of the Ninety Mile Beach. Thus, scope for flood-tide delta nourishment will probably increase, as will the demand for mitigation of the inevitable effects upon entrance channel navigability. Information derived from the analysis of time-series bathymetry used for this study offers baseline information in support of stakeholder consensus building regarding options for maintaining navigability. Analysis points to the merit of considering (and testing via morphological modelling) alternative options for navigation channel maintenance than those in present practice. We argue that the circumstances prevailing at the artificial entrance call for consideration of engineered configuration changes practised elsewhere by entrance managers faced with similar issues.     

Reconstruction of contaminant trends in a salt wedge estuary with sediment cores dated using a multiple proxy approach

The Taunton River is a partially mixed tidal estuary in southeastern Massachusetts (USA) which has received significant contaminant inputs, yet little information exists on the history of discharge and the subsequent fate of these contaminants. Three sediment cores taken along a transect were analyzed, reconstructing the spatial and temporal trends of pollution in the estuary. A combination of radiometric dating, contaminant markers, and storm layers from major hurricanes were used to establish age models and sedimentation rates. Age estimates obtained from the different dating methods compared well, establishing an accurate history of contaminant release to the estuary. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were present in one core at depths corresponding to the early 1860s, earlier than previously established dates of introduction. Temporal and spatial trends of Cr, Cu, Hg and Pb indicated multiple sources of varying input to the river. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were present in each of the cores from the 1930s onward, with elevated levels still present in surficial sediments at several sites. A unique organic compound, Topanol, which was produced locally was used as a tracer to track contaminant transport in the river. Tracer data indicates that contaminants are still being transported and deposited to surficial sediments at high concentrations well after their discharge. This reconstruction demonstrates the utility of using multiple dating proxies where often the sole use of radiometric dating techniques is not an option and provides insights into the fate of contaminants discharged decades ago but continue to represent environmental risks.     

Chronology of Quaternary terrace deposits at the locality Hohle Gasse (Pratteln,NW Switzerland)

The Quaternary stratigraphy of the Alpine Foreland consists of distinct terrace levels, which have been assigned to four morphostratigraphic units: Höhere (Higher) Deckenschotter, Tiefere (Lower) Deckenschotter, Hochterrasse (High Terrace) and Niederterrasse (Lower Terrace). Here, we focus on the terrace gravels at Hohle Gasse, SSE of Pratteln near Basel, which are mapped as Tiefere Deckenschotter. Petrographic and morphometric data established from clasts allowed to infer the transport mechanisms and sources of the gravels. Sedimentological analyses indicate that the gravels were transported by a braided river and deposited in a distal glaciofluvial setting. In addition, it can be shown that the majority of the clasts display multiple reworking and only a minority maintained a distinct glaciofluvial shape. Cosmogenic multi-isotope dating using ¹⁰Be and ³⁶Cl allowed direct dating of the sediments at the study site. A depth-profile age of \(2 70_{ - 1 90}^{ + 8 30}\) ka for ¹⁰Be was achieved for the deposits at Hohle Gasse. Unfortunately, no age could be modelled from the ³⁶Cl concentrations as the blank correction was too high. Furthermore, this age proves that the studied terrace level should be assigned to the morphostratigraphic unit Hochterrasse.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Observations of particle movement in a monitoring well using the colloidal borescope

The colloidal borescope consists of a set of lenses and miniature video cameras capable of observing natural particles in monitoring wells. Based on field observations of these particles, it appears possible to measure in situ groundwater velocity in a well bore. Field observations have shown that directional measurements using the colloidal borescope are generally in good agreement with expected flow directions. However, the magnitude of flow velocity is higher compared with values based on conventional test methods. High relative flow velocities, even after correction factors have been applied to compensate for well bore effects, are believed to be due to preferential flow zones in the surrounding aquifer. Low flow zones exhibit swirling multidirectional flow that does not allow for a linear velocity measurement. Consequently, groundwater flow velocities measured by the colloidal borescope in heterogeneous aquifers will be biased toward the maximum velocity values present in the aquifer. A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to assess the reliability of the instrument. Based on this work, a seepage velocity correction factor ( ) of 1–4 was found for quantifying groundwater seepage velocity in the adjacent aquifer from observations in a well bore. Laboratory measurements also indicate that preferential flow in the surrounding aquifer dominates flow in the well. Results of this work suggest the possibility of quantifying higher-flow velocities associated with preferential flow zones in the subsurface.