Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

Experimental study of dense pyroclastic density currents using sustained,gas-fluidized granular flows

Submarine lava flow morphology is commonly used to estimate relative flow velocity, but the effects of crystallinity and viscosity are rarely considered. We use digital petrography and quantitative textural analysis techniques to determine the crystallinity of submarine basaltic lava flows, using a set of samples from previously mapped lava flow fields at the hotspot-affected Galápagos Spreading Center. Crystallinity measurements were incorporated into predictive models of suspension rheology to characterize lava flow consistency and rheology. Petrologic data were integrated to estimate bulk lava viscosity. We compared the crystallinity and viscosity of each sample with its flow morphology to determine their respective roles in submarine lava emplacement dynamics. We find no correlation between crystallinity, bulk viscosity, and lava morphology, implying that flow advance rate is the primary control on submarine lava morphology. However, we show systematic variations in crystal size and shape distribution among pillows, lobates, and sheets, suggesting that these parameters are important indicators of eruption processes. Finally, we compared the characteristics of lavas from two different sampling sites with contrasting long-term magma supply rates. Differences between lavas from each study site illustrate the significant effect of magma supply on the physical properties of the oceanic upper crust.     

Double vagueness: uncertainty in multi-scale fuzzy assignment of duneness

In the automation of identification of landscape features the vagueness arises from the fact that the attributes and parameters that make up a landscape vary over space and scale. In most of existing studies, these two kinds of vagueness are studied separately. This paper investigates their combination in identification of coast landscape units. Fuzzy set theory is used to describe the vagueness of geomorphic features due to the continuity in space. The vagueness resulted from the scale of measurement is evaluated by statistic indicators. The differences of fuzzy objects derived from data at differing resolutions (in size from 3×3 cells to 25×25 cells) are studied in order to examine these higher-order uncertainties.     

Understanding the fate of iron in a modern temperate estuary: Leirárvogur,Iceland

Fluvial dissolved Fe concentrations decrease upon mixing with seawater, resulting in the formation of Fe-floccules. However, a clear understanding of the fate of these floccules has yet to be established. Assessing how tidal processes affect the formation of Fe-colloids in the Leirárvogur estuary, SW Iceland, is an important step in understanding the formation and potential deposition of estuarine Fe-rich minerals within this estuarine system. The Leirárvogur estuary drains predominately Fe-rich basalt, increasing the likelihood of detecting changes in Fe-phases. Fluvial waters and local lake waters that drain into the estuary were compared and the effects of seasonal changes were considered, in an attempt to understand how varying end-members and external factors play a role in Fe-rich mineral formation. Aqueous and colloidal Fe concentrations were found to be greater towards the head of the Leirárvogur estuary, suggesting that potential Fe-rich minerals and complexes are forming at sites of fluvial input. Increasing suspended colloidal Fe towards the estuary mouth suggests that Fe-colloids are readily transported seaward.     

Dynamic weather forecaster: results of the testing of a collaborative, on-line educational platform for weather forecasting

The online Dynamic Weather Forecaster is an open, collaborative application available now to high-school and college instructors across the United States who would like to easily incorporate weather forecasting in their instruction. The application consists of a set of 13 questions that allow students to submit forecasts that cover most of the parameters used by professional weather forecasters. Submissions are automatically validated against weather parameters and graded. We tested the impact of the application on the learning of 199 undergraduate students in an introductory meteorology course in spring 2008. Students who begin forecasting early in the semester and continue to do so throughout the semester are statistically significantly more successful in the course than students who start late or complete a low number of forecasts. College, year in school, and gender were not significant predictors of success. Students found the application easy to use, and 92.3% of them found it at least somewhat helpful as they learned about the weather. Through the use of the DWF, students also experience first-hand that uncertainty is a critical part of weather forecasting and of scientific studies in general. With sufficient interest from potential users outside the USA, the DWF platform could easily be expanded to include global weather data.     

A Computationally Efficient,Time-Dependent Model of the Solar Wind for Use as a Surrogate to Three-Dimensional Numerical Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Solar radiation variability spans a wide range in time, ranging from seconds to decadal and longer. The nearly 40 years of measurements of solar irradiance from space established that the total solar irradiance varies by \(\approx 0.1\%\) in phase with the Sun’s magnetic cycle. Specific intervals of the solar spectrum, e.g., ultraviolet (UV), vary by orders of magnitude more. These variations can affect the Earth’s climate in a complex non-linear way. Specifically, some of the processes of interaction between solar UV radiation and the Earth’s atmosphere involve threshold processes and do not require a detailed reconstruction of the solar spectrum. For this reason a spectral UV index based on the (FUV-MUV) color has been recently introduced. This color is calculated using SORCE SOLSTICE integrated fluxes in the FUV and MUV bands. We present in this work the reconstructions of the solar (FUV-MUV) color and Ca ii K and Mg ii indices, from 1749–2015, using a semi-empirical approach based on the reconstruction of the area coverage of different solar magnetic features, i.e., sunspot, faculae and network. We remark that our results are in noteworthy agreement with latest solar UV proxy reconstructions that exploit more sophisticated techniques requiring historical full-disk observations. This makes us confident that our technique can represent an alternative approach which can complement classical solar reconstruction efforts. Moreover, this technique, based on broad-band observations, can be utilized to estimate the activity on Sun-like stars, that cannot be resolved spatially, hosting extra-solar planetary systems.