Vertical mixing of oil droplets by breaking waves

Oil spilled on a sea surface can be dispersed by a variety of natural processes, of which the influence of breaking waves is dominant. Breaking waves are able to split the slick into small droplets, facilitating oil mixing in the water column. Vertical dynamics of the droplets plays a major role in the oil mass exchange between the slick and the water column. In this paper a mathematical model of oil droplet mixing by breaking waves is developed. The model uses a kinetic approach to describe the vertical exchange of the droplets at the interface between the slick and the water column. The majority of the coefficients and parameters are conveniently combined into a single "mixing factor". The model is verified using sensitivity analysis and empirical formulae of other authors. The model permits a rapid estimation of the amount of dispersed oil under the breaking waves. The ultimate goal of the research is to parameterise influence of breaking waves on vertical mixing of oil droplets to be used in a general 3-D oil spill model.     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.