极地冰钻关键技术研究进展

极地冰钻技术是获取冰芯,研究冰盖-冰架-海洋相互作用,以及获取极地冰下基岩与冰下水环境样品,开展冰下环境探测的重要手段。目前极地冰钻技术的难点与前沿主要包括深冰芯钻探、冰架热水钻、冰下基岩钻和冰下水环境采样与观测技术。本文针对以上4个极地冰钻关键技术,对国内外相关技术的研究进展与项目开展情况进行了总结与梳理。综合来看,虽然我国开展极地钻探技术研究起步较晚,但随着我国极地战略不断推进,我国的极地冰钻关键技术与装备的研究正持续向着赶超极地钻探强国方向迈进,这必将为我国的极地科学研究提供强有力的技术支撑。     

Spherical integral transforms of second-order gravitational tensor components onto third-order gravitational tensor components

New spherical integral formulas between components of the second- and third-order gravitational tensors are formulated in this article. First, we review the nomenclature and basic properties of the second- and third-order gravitational tensors. Initial points of mathematical derivations, i.e., the second- and third-order differential operators defined in the spherical local North-oriented reference frame and the analytical solutions of the gradiometric boundary-value problem, are also summarized. Secondly, we apply the third-order differential operators to the analytical solutions of the gradiometric boundary-value problem which gives 30 new integral formulas transforming (1) vertical-vertical, (2) vertical-horizontal and (3) horizontal-horizontal second-order gravitational tensor components onto their third-order counterparts. Using spherical polar coordinates related sub-integral kernels can efficiently be decomposed into azimuthal and isotropic parts. Both spectral and closed forms of the isotropic kernels are provided and their limits are investigated. Thirdly, numerical experiments are performed to test the consistency of the new integral transforms and to investigate properties of the sub-integral kernels. The new mathematical apparatus is valid for any harmonic potential field and may be exploited, e.g., when gravitational/magnetic second- and third-order tensor components become available in the future. The new integral formulas also extend the well-known Meissl diagram and enrich the theoretical apparatus of geodesy.     

Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios

We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010–2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040–2069) and late (2070–2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950–1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt’s hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century.     

南极东方站深冰层及冰下湖钻探技术

自1970年至今,前苏联和俄罗斯在南极东方站持续进行了近50年的冰层钻探活动,先后攻克了包含粒雪层、冰层、冰岩夹层和湖水冻结冰的复杂冰层钻进难题,逐渐形成了一套集热融取芯钻探、电动机械取芯钻探和分支孔钻探等为一体的深冰芯钻探技术。创造了冰层最深干孔钻进深度记录（952.4 m）、最深热融取芯钻进记录（2755 m）、最深冰芯钻探记录（3769.3 m）,累计进尺达13000 m,并获取了总长超46 m的含湖水冻结冰样品的冰芯。东方站的钻探活动对极地冰层钻探技术的发展起到了巨大的推动和引领作用,同时积累了宝贵的深冰钻探经验。通过对东方站深冰钻探技术的系统梳理,将为我国正在实施的深冰芯钻探和即将开启的冰下湖科学钻探提供重要的借鉴。     

极地深部冰层取心钻探孔壁水压致裂研究

为了维护极地深部冰层取心钻探工作中钻孔的稳定,避免孔内事故的发生,冰层孔壁的水压致裂问题是亟待解决的重要科学问题之一。本文在深入分析国内外冰层钻探资料的基础上,结合冰盖动力学相关理论,计算得出了钻孔所在区域冰层的密度、温度及内部应力随深度的变化规律。在此基础上,结合油气资源勘探水力压裂技术与冰层钻进钻井液等相关理论,建立了合理的孔壁压差计算方法,深入探讨了适用于深部冰层钻探孔壁水压致裂机理。研制了冰层钻孔水压致裂模拟实验装置,可分析研究不同围压条件下冰样的脆性变形机理。结合我国Dome A深冰心钻探工程实际,提出钻孔可能发生水压致裂的深度区域及孔壁所需的起始裂纹长度判定,以期为后续的安全高效冰层钻进提供重要的理论依据。     

Vegetation and climate during the penultimate interglacial of the northeastern Russian Arctic: the Lake El'gygytgyn pollen record

We present a high‐resolution reconstruction of the vegetation and climate dynamics during the penultimate interglacial, corresponding with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7, based on detailed palynological analyses of lacustrine sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn, northeastern Siberia. The analysed sediments were deposited between 246 and 181 ka ago (late MIS 8 to early MIS 6.6). The interglacial vegetation was characterized by herb and shrub (mainly alder and birch) dominated plant communities. Pollen‐based biome reconstruction shows a dominance of the tundra (TUND) biome, thus indicating rather open vegetation. Warmer intervals (MIS 7.5, 7.3 and 7.1) were marked by an increase in the cold deciduous forest (CLDE) biome scores and a synchronous decrease in the cold steppe (STEP) biome scores. The thermal maximum occurred during MIS 7.1, as indicated by the highest CLDE biome scores occurring in this period, and lasted ~10 ka, possibly favoured by the high precession‐related summer insolation and the legacy of the preceding mild and dry stadial (MIS 7.2). In contrast, MIS 7.3 and 7.5 were characterized by shorter durations (~4 ka) and lower summer temperatures. The preceding cold glacial and stadial (MIS 8 and 7.4, respectively) might have led to an extensive distribution of permafrost that hindered vegetation development during the subsequent warm intervals. MIS 7.4 and 6.6 were cold and wet, probably triggered by low obliquity values and coevally low precession‐related summer insolation. As a result, these periods were marked by significantly reduced summer temperatures and an enhanced snow‐ice albedo feedback. The obtained reconstructions provide potential scenarios for future climate changes and allow a better understanding of the relationship between vegetation, climate and external/internal forcings in the high latitudes.     

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical...     

On the local multiscale determination of the Earth’s disturbing potential from discrete deflections of the vertical

As a first approximation, the Earth is a sphere; as a second approximation, it may be considered an ellipsoid of revolution. The deviations of the actual Earth’s gravity field from the ellipsoidal “normal” field are so small that they can be understood to be linear. The splitting of the Earth’s gravity field into a “normal” and a remaining small “disturbing” field considerably simplifies the problem of its determination. Under the assumption of an ellipsoidal Earth model, high observational accuracy is achievable only if the deviation (deflection of the vertical) of the physical plumb line, to which measurements refer, from the ellipsoidal normal is not ignored. Hence, the determination of the disturbing potential from known deflections of the vertical is a central problem of physical geodesy. In this paper, we propose a new, well-promising method for modelling the disturbing potential locally from the deflections of the vertical. Essential tools are integral formulae on the sphere based on Green’s function with respect to the Beltrami operator. The determination of the disturbing potential from deflections of the vertical is formulated as a multiscale procedure involving scale-dependent regularized versions of the surface gradient of the Green function. The modelling process is based on a multiscale framework by use of locally supported surface curl-free vector wavelets.      

Radiation balance over low-lying and mountainous areas in south-west Germany

Summary  Surface radiative fluxes play a major role in the energy exchange process between the atmosphere and earth surface and are thus very crucial to climatic processes within the atmospheric boundary layer. Based on four years REKLIP (REgio-KLIma-Project) data set of measured radiative fluxes and additional supporting meteorological variables, the surface radiation regime for selected lowland site (Bremgarten 212 m a.s.l.) and mountain sites (Geiersnest at 870 m a.s.l.; Feldberg 1489 m a.s.l.) in the southern Upper Rhine valley region (south-west Germany) has been reported. Time series of radiative fluxes and surface albedo showed significant inter-site differences. Possible reasons for the observed differences have been made. Downward atmospheric radiation A _l at the study sites was parameterised in terms of air temperature, vapour pressure and cloud amount, all of which strongly govern the variation of A _l . Effective terrestrial radiation amounted to about 50% of absorbed shortwave radiation at the study sites annually. During clear sky conditions, global solar irradiance G _s constituted about 76.0% of the incident extraterrestrial solar irradiance at Feldberg mountain site but only 68.5% of that at Bremgarten lowland site. Annual cumulative of net radiative flux R _n amounted to 1722 MJm⁻² yr⁻¹ at the lowland site, while that at Geiersnest and Feldberg mountain sites constituted 84% and 73% respectively of the corresponding magnitude for the lowland site. In the same vein, annual mean of radiation efficiency (defined here as R _n /G _s ) amounted to 0.32 in Feldberg, 0.37 in Geiersnest and 0.41 in Bremgarten. Consequently the annual available energy, of which net radiative flux is representative, was smaller at the mountain ous sites relative to the lowland site during the study period. Inter-annual variability of net radiative flux, its constituent variables and derivatives at the study sites were generally below 10%, with longwave fluxes showing the lowest fluctuation. This renders the measured data quite suitable for modelling purposes. In winter, mean daily sums of R _n showed a slow rise with cloud amount N at the lowland site but a sharp rise with N at Feldberg mountain site. In summer however, mean daily sums of R _n declined significantly with N as well as Linke turbidity factor at the study sites. Received June 24, 1999 Revised November 2, 2000