Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin,Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

Abstract

A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Early Permian extensional shearing of an Ordovician granite: The Saint-Eutrope “C/S-like” orthogneiss (Montagne Noire,French Massif Central)

Dating the magmatic events in the Montagne Noire gneiss dome is a key point to arbitrate between the different interpretations of the Late Carboniferous–Early Permian tectonics in this southern part of the Variscan belt. The Saint-Eutrope orthogneiss crops out along the northern flank of the dome. We show that the protolith of this orthogneiss is an Ordovician granite dated at 455 ± 2 Ma (LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating on zircon). This age is identical to that previously obtained on the augen orthogneiss of the southern flank, strongly suggesting that both orthogneiss occurrences have the same Ordovician protolith. The Saint-Eutrope orthogneiss experienced intense shearing along the Espinouse extensional detachment at ca. 295 Ma (LA-ICP-MS U-Pb-Th on monazite), an age close to that determined previously on mica by the ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar method and contemporaneous with the emplacement age of the syntectonic Montalet granite farther to the west. This normal sense shearing reworked previous fabrics related to Variscan thrusting that can be still observed in the augen orthogneiss of the southern flank, and is responsible for the spectacular “C/S-like” pattern of the Saint-Eutrope orthogneiss. This work also shows that care is needed when dealing with C/S-type structures, since they can develop not only in syntectonic intrusions, but also in orthogneisses affected by an intense secondary deformation, at decreasing temperature.     

On the accuracy of the bathymetry-generated gravitational field quantities for a depth-dependent seawater density distribution

In geophysical studies investigating the lithosphere structure, the gravitational field generated by the ocean density contrast (i.e., bathymetry-generated gravitational field) represents a significant amount of the signal to be modelled and subsequently removed from the Earth’s gravity field. The ocean density contrast is typically calculated as the difference between the mean density values of the Earth’s crust and seawater. The approximation of the actual seawater density distribution by its mean value yields relative errors up to about 2% in computed quantities of the gravitational field. To reduce these errors, a more realistic model of the seawater density distribution is utilized based on the analysis of existing oceanographic data of salinity, temperature, and pressure (depth). We study the accuracy of the bathymetry-generated gravitational field quantities formulated for a depth-dependent model of the seawater density distribution. This density distribution approximates the seawater density variations due to an increasing pressure with depth, whereas smaller lateral density variations caused by salinity, temperature, and other oceanographic factors are not taken into consideration. The error analysis reveals that the approximation of the seawater density by the depth-dependent density model reduces the maximum errors to less than 0.6%. The corresponding depth-averaged errors are below 0.1%. The depth-dependent seawater density model is further facilitated in expressions for computing the bathymetry-generated gravitational field quantities by means of the spherical bathymetric (ocean bottom depth) functions. The numerical realization reveals large differences in the results obtained with and without consideration of the depth-dependent seawater density distribution. The maxima of absolute differences reach 201 m²/s² and 16.5 mGal in computed values of the potential and attraction, respectively. The application of the depth-dependent seawater density model thus significantly improves the accuracy in the forward modelling of the bathymetric gravitational field quantities.     

Plagioclase zoning as an indicator of magma processes at Bezymianny Volcano,Kamchatka

Back-scattered electron (BSE)-derived zoning patterns of plagioclase phenocrysts are used to identify magma processes at Bezymianny Volcano, Kamchatka, based on the 2000–2007 sequence of eruptive products. The erupted magmas are two-pyroxene andesites, which last equilibrated at ~915°C temperature, 77–87 MPa pressure, and a water content of ~1.4 wt%. Textural and compositional zoning of individual plagioclase phenocrysts typically includes a repeated core-to-rim sequence of oscillatory zoning (An_50–60) truncated by a dissolution surface followed by an abrupt increase in An content (up to An₈₅), which then gradually decreases rimward. This zoning pattern is interpreted to be the result of frequent replenishments of the magma chamber which cause both thermal and chemical interaction between resident and recharge magmas. The outermost 70- to 150-μm-wide zoning patterns of plagioclase phenocrysts are composed of dissolution surface with a subsequent increase in An and Fe contents. Zoning patterns of the rims exhibit correlation among plagioclase phenocrysts within one eruption. Rims are interpreted as a result of crystallization of a batch of magma in the conduit after recharge event.     

Oxygen isotope exchange between H2O and CO2 at elevated CO2 pressures: Implications for monitoring of geological CO2 storage

Traditionally, the application of stable isotopes in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects has focused on δ¹³C values of CO₂ to trace the migration of injected CO₂ in the subsurface. More recently the use of δ¹⁸O values of both CO₂ and reservoir fluids has been proposed as a method for quantifying in situ CO₂ reservoir saturations due to O isotope exchange between CO₂ and H₂O and subsequent changes in δ¹⁸O_H2O values in the presence of high concentrations of CO₂. To verify that O isotope exchange between CO₂ and H₂O reaches equilibrium within days, and that δ¹⁸O_H2O values indeed change predictably due to the presence of CO₂, a laboratory study was conducted during which the isotope composition of H₂O, CO₂, and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) was determined at representative reservoir conditions (50 °C and up to 19 MPa) and varying CO₂ pressures. Conditions typical for the Pembina Cardium CO₂ Monitoring Pilot in Alberta (Canada) were chosen for the experiments. Results obtained showed that δ¹⁸O values of CO₂ were on average 36.4 ± 2.2‰ (1σ, n = 15) higher than those of water at all pressures up to and including reservoir pressure (19 MPa), in excellent agreement with the theoretically predicted isotope enrichment factor of 35.5‰ for the experimental temperatures of 50 °C. By using ¹⁸O enriched water for the experiments it was demonstrated that changes in the δ¹⁸O values of water were predictably related to the fraction of O in the system sourced from CO₂ in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. Since the fraction of O sourced from CO₂ is related to the total volumetric saturation of CO₂ and water as a fraction of the total volume of the system, it is concluded that changes in δ¹⁸O values of reservoir fluids can be used to calculate reservoir saturations of CO₂ in CCS settings given that the δ¹⁸O values of CO₂ and water are sufficiently distinct.     

Rainfall-induced landslide event of May 2010 in the eastern part of the Czech Republic

More than 150 landslides originated in the eastern part of the Czech Republic (region of the Flysch Outer Western Carpathians—hereinafter, OWC) due to soil saturation caused by antecedent precipitation and long lasting and intensive rainfalls on 16–18 May 2010 (>300 mm as measured by some stations). As a consequence, a multitude of small failures originated 88% of which was smaller than 10⁴ m². Most landslides are characterised as shallow (<10 m) or middle–deep (10–30 m) incipient (rather short travel) landslides, debris slides and soil slips spatially clustered to a geological domain underlain by rather weak thin-bedded flysch and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits. An exception to this is represented by a kilometre-long rockslide (∼2–3 mil m³) affecting tectonically weakened and weathered claystone/mudstone-dominated flysch on the southern slope of Mt. Girová (the Beskydy Mountains). The rockslide is one of the largest long runout landslides in the territory of the Czech Republic activated over the past few decades as it reaches the dimensions of the largest documented Holocene long runout landslides in the Czech part of the OWC. A majority of the May 2010 landslide events developed inside older (Holocene or historic) landslide terrains, which points to their spatial persistency and recurrent nature. In spite of the fact that the May 2010 landslide event was not as destructive as some previous landslide activisation in the OWC region (e.g. July 1997 event), it left many slope failures at the initial stage of their potential future reactivation.     

The sinkhole enigma in the Alpine Foreland, Southeast Germany: Evidence of impact-induced rock liquefaction processes

Sudden collapse of the Quaternary soil to form sinkholes on the order of meters and tens of meters has been a geologic phenomenon within living memory in a localized area north of Lake Chiemsee in Southeast Germany. Failing a satisfying explanation, a relation with an undefined glaciation process has always been proposed. Excavations and geophysical measurements at three newly affected sites show underground features such as prominent sandy-gravelly intrusions and extrusions typical of rock liquefaction processes well known to occur during strong earthquakes. Since strong earthquakes can reasonably be excluded to have affected the area under discussion, it has been suggested that the observed widespread liquefaction is related with the recently proposed Holocene Chiemgau meteorite impact event. Except for one earlier proposed but unassertive relation between impact and liquefaction, the obviously direct association of both processes in the Chiemgau area emphasizes that observed paleoliquefaction features need not necessarily have originated solely from paleoseismicity but can provide a recognizable regional impact signature.     

Late orogenic extension in the Bohemian Massif: petrostructural evidence in the Hlinsko region

Abstract

The tectonic contact between low-grade metase-dimentary series and high-grade rocks in the Hlinsko region (Bohemian Massif) is commonly interpreted as a thrust of the Barrandian sediments over the upper Moldanubian nappe.

The sediments occur in an E-facing synform that contains a tonalitic laccolith on its eastern boundary with the Moldanubian, and is truncated by a granodiorite pluton to the west. The synform represents a late deformational folding event related to the granodiorite intrusion. NW-oriented normal shear in the tonalite is indicated by S-C microstructures. Kinematic criteria associated with the major foliation and lineation development in the metasediments also indicate a north-westward, normal shear. In addition, Moldanubian gneiss display late shear bands due to north-westward, normal shear. Consequently, the presumed thrust is a low-angle, normal shear zone.

Low-pressure type metamorphism (3 < P < 4 x 10² MPa) coeval with the major deformational phase in pelites of the Hlinsko synform is attributed to both the tonalite aureole and the extensive HT metamorphism (under P > 6 x 10² MPa) that has affected the underlying Moldanubian.

The possibly polyphase normal fault is consistent with the meta-morphic pressure jump between the metasediments and the Moldanubian.

We suggest that the tonalite intruded syntectonically within the normal ductile shear zone active during waning stages of the Variscan orogeny.     

极地冰层回转钻进切削热量测试装置的研制

极地冰盖深部“暖冰”层钻进时,由于冰层的温度较高,接近甚至达到冰的压力熔点,回转钻进时产生的切削热量极易使冰屑融化,导致机械钻速慢、取心率低、卡钻事故频发。钻压、转速、切削具结构等参数均对切削热量有一定的影响,有必要设计一套实验装置对切削热量进行测试,从而为设计切削具结构、优化钻进参数组合提供理论依据。以XY-1型岩心钻机钻进系统为平台,利用无线信号传输原理设计了冰层回转钻进切削热量测试实验台。初步测试结果表明,该实验装置能够准确测量钻压、扭矩、切削温度等参数,可用来进行相关的实验研究。