On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.     

Prolonged Dry Episodes over North America: New Tendencies Emerging During the Last 40 Years

A disproportionate increase in precipitation coming from intense rain events, in the situation of general warming (thus, an extension of the vegetation period with intensive transpiration) and an insignificant change in total precipitation could lead to an increase in the frequency of potentially serious type of extreme events: prolonged periods without precipitation (even when the mean seasonal rainfall totals increase). This paper investigates whether this development is already occurring during the past several decades over North America south of 55°N, for the same period when changes in frequency of intense precipitation events are being observed. Lengthy strings of “dry” days without sizeable (>1.0 mm) precipitation were assessed only during the warm season (defined as a period when mean daily temperature is above the 5℃ threshold) when water is intensively used for transpiration and prolonged periods without sizable rainfall represent a hazard for terrestrial ecosystem's health and agriculture. During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (20 days or longer in southeastern Canada, 1 month or longer in the Eastern United States and along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and 2 months or longer in the Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico) has significantly increased. As a consequence, the return period of 1 month long dry episodes over the Eastern U.S. has been reduced more than twofold from 15 to 6~7 years. The longer average duration of dry episodes has occurred during a relatively wet period around most of the continent south of 55°N but is not observed over the Northwestern U.S. and adjacent regions of Southern Canada.      

2006年国家自然科学基金批准项目一览表(地球科学部分)

~~2006年国家自然科学基金批准项目一览表(地球科学部分)~~     

Late Pleistocene large mammal faunas from the Urals

The 121 local faunas of large mammals from Late Pleistocene sites of the South (56–51°N), Middle (59–56°N) and North (64–59°N) Urals have been studied. All local faunas were combined into eight chronological groups on the basis of radiocarbon dates and the evolutionary level of rodents present in them. On the basis of species composition analysis of the faunas, three chronological complexes have been distinguished: Mikulino, Early–Middle Valdai and Late Valdai. The first is characterized by the presence of Hystrix vinogradovi and Ursus thibetanus; the second, by the presence of a large form of horse (Equus (E.) cf. latipes), Crocuta crocuta, Ursus spelaeus and U. savini; the third, by the presence of a small horse (E. uralensis) and absence of U. spelaeus, U. savini and C. crocuta. The latter two complexes were represented by three geographical variants: southern (South Urals), northern (North Urals) and transitional (Middle Urals). Differences between theriocomplexes are related to changes in morphology and areas and extinctions of a series of species. The existence of chronological theriocomplexes and their geographical variants was determined by chronological and geographical change in structure of paleophytocoenoses. It should be noted that the role of human in changes of chronological complexes and species extinctions in the Late Pleistocene has not been demonstrated in the Urals. In the Urals U. savini probably became extinct at the end of the Middle Valdai, C. crocuta at the beginning of the last glacial maximum (LGM), U. spelaeus at the end of the LGM, Coelodonta antiquitatis at the beginning of the Preboreal and Megaloceros giganteus at the middle of the Atlantic.     

Utilisation of the image analysis method for the detection of the morphological anisotropy of calcite grains in marble

This paper presents the development and utilisation of an automated image processing algorithm for detection and analysis of grains. Using optical polarising microscopy, a set of colored images are collected from an area on a thin section. A filtering operation, using rotation of a morphological alternating sequence filter (based on a structuring element), is used to remove twinning features within individual grains. Filtering is followed by the watershed segmentation technique to determine grain boundaries. The method is used for the identification of calcite grains in marble and the subsequent analysis of morphological anisotropy.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene small- and large-mammal faunas from the Northern Urals

Data from the mammal fauna of the North Urals during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene are synthesised. Analysis of differentiation the degree of small- and large-mammal faunas during this time has been undertaken. Only differences of mammal species composition were significant between the Late Pleistocene and Holocene complexes, and within these complexes, the distinction between faunas was insignificant. The transition from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene complex small-mammal faunas occurred in the Middle Late Valdai due to expansion of the forest species. In large-mammal faunas, the process was recorded later (in Dryas 3-Early Holocene) because of the extinction of some species and others that changed their areas of occupation.     

A Method to Determine the Solar Synodic Rotation Rate and the Height of Tracers

The dependence of the measured apparent synodic solar rotation rate on the height of the chosen tracer is studied. A significant error occurs if the rotation rate is determined by tracing the apparent position of an object above the photospheric level projected on the solar disc. The centre-to-limb variation of this error can be used to determine simultaneously the height of the object and the true synodic rotation rate. The apparent (projected) heliographic coordinates are presented as a function of the height of the traced object and the coordinates of its footpoint. The relations obtained provide an explicit expression for the apparent rotation rate as a function of the observed heliographic coordinates of the tracer, enabling an analytic least-squares fit expression to determine simultaneously the real synodic rotation rate and the height of the tracer.     

Seismic Zoning of Croatia

The territory of Croatia and neighboring regions is divided into 17 seismic source zones, considering available seismological and geological data. On this basis, seismic hazard elements (seismicity rate, maximum magnitude, b-value, probabilities of exceedance and return periods for a predefined set of magnitudes) are computed using the maximum likelihood method appropriate for treating data-sets with variable completeness thresholds. The values of long term expected peak horizontal acceleration obtained by using a combination of the deterministic and the probabilistic procedure are the highest in the Dubrovnik zone, while the Zagreb zone has the highest earthquake hazard in the continental part of the country. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Electromagnetic induction of a three-dimensional conductivity inhomogeneity in the two-layered earth

Summary The calculation of the elements of Green's tensor function is presented for solving the problem of the electromagnetic induction by means of a vector integral equation. A two-layered Earth is considered as the medium, the surface layer including a three-dimensional conductivity inhomogeneity. Use is made of the boundary condition requiring the vertical component of the electric current to be zero at the Earth's surface which partly simplifies the theoretical computation. Long-period asymptotics of the individual complicated functions, occurring in Green's tensor function as well as in the tensor function required to calculate the components of the anomalous magnetic field at the surface of the halfspace, were effected. With the aid of these asymptotics one can obtain estimates of the functions occurring in the theoretical analysis of the problem.