Multiscale characterization of a heterogeneous aquifer using an ASR operation

Heterogeneity in the physical properties of an aquifer can significantly affect the viability of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) by reducing the recoverable proportion of low-salinity water where the ambient ground water is brackish or saline. This study investigated the relationship between knowledge of heterogeneity and predictions of solute transport and recovery efficiency by combining permeability and ASR-based tracer testing with modeling. Multiscale permeability testing of a sandy limestone aquifer at an ASR trial site showed that small-scale core data give lower-bound estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity (K), intermediate-scale downhole flowmeter data offer valuable information on variations in K with depth, and large-scale pumping test data provide an integrated measure of the effective K that is useful to constrain ground water models. Chloride breakthrough and thermal profiling data measured during two cycles of ASR showed that the movement of injected water is predominantly within two stratigraphic layers identified from the flowmeter data. The behavior of the injectant was reasonably well simulated with a four-layer numerical model that required minimal calibration. Verification in the second cycle achieved acceptable results given the model's simplicity. Without accounting for the aquifer's layered structure, high precision could be achieved on either piezometer breakthrough or recovered water quality, but not both. This study demonstrates the merit of an integrated approach to characterizing aquifers targeted for ASR.     

Laboratory investigation of the effects of mineral size and concentration on the formation of oil-mineral aggregates

Controlled laboratory studies of the formation of oil-mineral aggregates (OMA) in seawater demonstrate that sediment concentration and sediment size are key variables for determining the quantity of oil droplets stabilised by OMA formation. Experiments with a single sediment size and a range of sediment concentrations show that as sediment concentration increases, the quantity of oil trapped in OMA increases abruptly. In experiments with a single sediment concentration and a range of sediment sizes, the quantity of oil trapped in OMA decreases as sediment size increases. These results provide direct support to the hypothesis that there is a critical sediment concentration for OMA formation. Below this concentration, stabilisation of oil droplets by OMA decreases rapidly, while above this concentration, stabilisation is extensive. The results also support simple geometric models of OMA formation that predict that the critical sediment mass concentration increases linearly with sediment particle diameter. These results will help to place quantitative constraint on predictions of where and when OMA formation will be a factor in the natural dispersal of oil accidentally spilled into the ocean.     

Temporary labour migration and sustainable post-conflict return in Sierra Leone

Economic and social development indicators suggest that the small West African state of Sierra Leone is among the poorest countries in the world. Sierra Leone’s economy and quality of life deteriorated rapidly during a decade of political instability and civil war in the 1990s, when many people fled their homes and abandoned their livelihoods due to the rebel insurgency. This paper examines the post-war reconstruction scenario in Sierra Leone and presents recent evidence from two rural communities in the Eastern Province that were badly affected by the conflict. The paper considers the links between the farming and diamond mining sectors, which, despite severe dislocation during the conflict period, have proved to be remarkably resilient. It is argued that seasonal labour mobility associated with this dual economy has not only continued to be a key ingredient in sustaining livelihood portfolios, but is actually an essential pre-condition for the creation of an enabling environment for sustainable post-conflict return.

A gas-poor planetesimal capture model for the formation of giant planet satellite systems

Assuming that an unknown mechanism (e.g., gas turbulence) removes most of the subnebula gas disk in a timescale shorter than that for satellite formation, we develop a model for the formation of regular (and possibly at least some of the irregular) satellites around giant planets in a gas-poor environment. In this model, which follows along the lines of the work of Safronov et al. [1986. Satellites. Univ. of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 89-116], heliocentric planetesimals collide within the planet's Hill sphere and generate a circumplanetary disk of prograde and retrograde satellitesimals extending as far out as ∼RH/2. At first, the net angular momentum of this proto-satellite swarm is small, and collisions among satellitesimals leads to loss of mass from the outer disk, and delivers mass to the inner disk (where regular satellites form) in a timescale ?¹⁰⁵ years. This mass loss may be offset by continued collisional capture of sufficiently small <1 km interlopers resulting from the disruption of planetesimals in the feeding zone of the giant planet. As the planet's feeding zone is cleared in a timescale ?¹⁰⁵ years, enough angular momentum may be delivered to the proto-satellite swarm to account for the angular momentum of the regular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. This feeding timescale is also roughly consistent with the independent constraint that the Galilean satellites formed in a timescale of ¹⁰⁵-¹⁰⁶ years, which may be long enough to accommodate Callisto's partially differentiated state [Anderson et al., 1998. Science 280, 1573; Anderson et al., 2001. Icarus 153, 157-161]. In turn, this formation timescale can be used to provide plausible constraints on the surface density of solids in the satellitesimal disk (excluding satellite embryos for satellitesimals of size ∼1 km), which yields a total disk mass smaller than the mass of the regular satellites, and means that the satellites must form in several ∼10 collisional cycles. However, much more work will need to be conducted concerning the collisional evolution both of the circumplanetary satellitesimals and of the heliocentric planetesimals following giant planet formation before one can assess the significance of this agreement. Furthermore, for enough mass to be delivered to form the regular satellites in the required timescale one may need to rely on (unproven) mechanisms to replenish the feeding zone of the giant planet. We compare this model to the solids-enhanced minimum mass (SEMM) model of Mosqueira and Estrada [2003a. Icarus 163, 198-231; 2003b. Icarus 163, 232-255], and discuss its main consequences for Cassini observations of the saturnian satellite system.     

kSZ from patchy reionization: The view from the simulations

We present the first calculation of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect due to the inhomogeneus reionization of the universe based on detailed large-scale radiative transfer simulations of reionization. The resulting sky power spectra peak at ℓ = 2000–8000 with maximum values of [ℓ(ℓ + 1)C_ℓ/(2π)]_max  4–7 × 10 ⁻¹³. The scale roughly corresponds to the typical ionized bubble sizes observed in our simulations, of 5–20 Mpc. The kSZ anisotropy signal from reionization dominates the primary CMB signal above ℓ = 3000. At large-scales the patchy kSZ signal depends only on the source efficiencies. It is higher when sources are more efficient at producing ionizing photons, since such sources produce larger ionized regions, on average, than less efficient sources. The introduction of sub-grid gas clumping in the radiative transfer simulations produce significantly more power at small-scales, but has little effect at large-scales. The patchy reionization kSZ signal is dominated by the post-reionization signal from fully-ionized gas, but the two contributions are of similar order at scales ℓ  3000 − 10⁴, indicating that the kSZ anisotropies from reionization are an important component of the total kSZ signal at these scales.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.     

Corrections for Wind-Speed Errors from Sodar and Lidar in Complex Terrain

The quality of lidar and sodar wind estimates is generally judged through comparisons with mast-mounted instruments, and the resulting regressions. Evaluation of the relative merits of lidars versus sodars is complicated by the fact that lidars are generally placed close to a mast whereas sodars are generally placed some distance from a mast so that acoustic reflections off the mast are reduced. This leads to the two technologies, lidar and sodar, not being compared in similar situations. Differences arising from the two geometries can be expected to be larger in complex terrain, where the wind regime can vary significantly spatially. The current work explores these differences in moderately complex terrain. Lidar–mast comparisons are performed with the lidar close to an 80 m mast, and sodar–mast comparisons performed with the sodar 300 m from the mast. Systematic variations in estimated wind speed are found to occur with height, consistent with predictions from a simple flow model. When the lidar was moved to the sodar location, further from the mast, there were significant changes in the estimated wind speeds and a reduction in correlation with the mast-based wind speeds, as expected. However, the correlation between collocated lidar and sodar winds was high. This finding emphasizes that any comparison of two remote sensing instruments needs to be through similar experiments, and that differences in accuracy often reported for the lidar and sodar technologies are likely to be contaminated due to poor comparison configurations. A method was devised to simulate the sodar being collocated with the mast, by using the lidar–sodar measurements and the lidar–mast measurements. It was found that there was then no statistically detectable difference between lidar–mast regressions and sodar–mast regressions for the particular lidar and sodar tested. Both remote sensing instruments were also found to be good estimators of Weibull parameters, as compared with those derived from mast data. The conclusion is that the sodar measured the winds above the sodar with a similar accuracy to the lidar measuring winds above the lidar.     

Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health

This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100.