Reconstruction of the layer anisotropic elastic parameters and high-resolution fracture characterization from P-wave data: a case study using seismic inversion and Bayesian rock physics parameter estimation

Wide-azimuth seismic data can be used to derive anisotropic parameters on the subsurface by observing variation in subsurface seismic response along different azimuths. Layer-based high-resolution estimates of components of the subsurface anisotropic elastic tensor can be reconstructed by using wide-azimuth P-wave data by combining the kinematic information derived from anisotropic velocity analysis with dynamic information obtained from amplitude versus angle and azimuth analysis of wide-azimuth seismic data. Interval P-impedance, S-impedance and anisotropic parameters associated with anisotropic fracture media are being reconstructed using linearized analysis assuming horizontal transverse anisotropy symmetry. In this paper it is shown how additional assumptions, such as the rock model, can be used to reduce the degrees of freedom in the estimation problem and recover all five anisotropic parameters. Because the use of a rock model is needed, the derived elastic parameters are consistent with the rock model and are used to infer fractured rock properties using stochastic rock physics inversion. The inversion is based on stochastic rock physics modelling and maximum a posteriori estimate of both porosity and crack density parameters associated with the observed elastic parameters derived from both velocity and amplitude versus angle and azimuth analysis. While the focus of this study is on the use of P-wave reflection data, we also show how additional information such as shear wave splitting and/or anisotropic well log data can reduce the assumptions needed to derive elastic parameter and rock properties.     

A land surface data assimilation framework using the land information system: Description and applications

The Land Information System (LIS) is an established land surface modeling framework that integrates various community land surface models, ground measurements, satellite-based observations, high performance computing and data management tools. The use of advanced software engineering principles in LIS allows interoperability of individual system components and thus enables assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales. In this work, we describe a sequential data assimilation extension of LIS that incorporates multiple observational sources, land surface models and assimilation algorithms. These capabilities are demonstrated here in a suite of experiments that use the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and assimilation through direct insertion. In a soil moisture experiment, we discuss the impact of differences in modeling approaches on assimilation performance. Provided careful choice of model error parameters, we find that two entirely different hydrological modeling approaches offer comparable assimilation results. In a snow assimilation experiment, we investigate the relative merits of assimilating different types of observations (snow cover area and snow water equivalent). The experiments show that data assimilation enhancements in LIS are uniquely suited to compare the assimilation of various data types into different land surface models within a single framework. The high performance infrastructure provides adequate support for efficient data assimilation integrations of high computational granularity.     

Swarms of similar long-period earthquakes in the mantle beneath Mauna Loa Volcano

We present analyses of two swarms of long-period (LP) earthquakes at > 30 km depth that accompanied the geodetically observed 2002–2005 Mauna Loa intrusion. The first LP earthquake swarm in 2002 consisted of 31 events that were precursory and preceded the start of Mauna Loa inflation; the second LP swarm of two thousand events occurred from 2004–2005. The rate of LP earthquakes slowed significantly coincident with the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_w 9.3 Sumatra earthquake, suggesting that the seismic waves from this great earthquake may have had a dynamic triggering effect on the behavior of Mauna Loa's deep magma system. Using waveform cross correlation and double difference relocation, we find that a large number of earthquakes in each swarm are weakly similar and can be classified into two families. The relocated hypocenters for each family collapse to compact point source regions almost directly beneath the Mauna Loa intrusion. We suggest that the observed waveform characteristics are compatible with each family being associated with the resonance of a single fluid filled vertical crack of fixed geometry, with differences in waveforms between events being produced by slight variations in the trigger mechanism. If these LP earthquakes are part of the primary magma system that fed the 2002–2005 intrusion, as indicated by the spatial and temporal associations between mantle seismicity and surface deformation, then our results raise the possibility that this magma system may be quite focused at these depths as opposed to being a diffuse network. It is likely that only a few locations of Mauna Loa's deep magma system met the geometric and fluid dynamic conditions for generating LP earthquakes that were large enough to be recorded at the surface, and that much of the deep magma transfer associated with the 2002–2005 intrusion occurred aseismically.     

Heat budget for a shallow,sinuous salt marsh estuary

An experimental study of temperature cycles and the heat budget in the Duplin River, a tidal creek bordered by extensive intertidal salt marshes, was carried out in late summer of 2003 and spring of 2004 near Sapelo Island on the central Georgia coast in the southeastern US. Three water masses are identified with differing temperature and salinity regimes, the characteristics of which are dictated by channel morphology, tidal communication with the neighboring sound, ground water hydrology, the extent of local intertidal salt marshes and side channels and the spring–neap tidal cycle (which controls both energetic mixing and, presumably, ground water input). For the first experiment, heat budgets are constructed for the upper (warmer) and lower (cooler) areas of the Duplin River showing the diminishing importance of tidal advection away from the mouth of the creek along with the concomitant increase in the importance of both direct atmospheric fluxes and of interactions with the marsh and side creeks. The second experiment, in the spring of 2004, reexamines the heat budget on seasonal and daily averaged scales revealing the decreased importance of advective fluxes relative to direct atmospheric fluxes on this scale but the constant importance of marsh/creek interactions regardless of time scale or season. Short period temperature fluctuations which affect larval development are examined and analogies are drawn to use heat to understand the marsh as a source of sediment, carbon and other nutrients.     

Fatigue reliability analysis of deep water rigid marine risers associated with Morison-type wave loading

This work presents a simple and efficient framework for the fatigue reliability assessment of a vertical top-tensioned rigid riser. The fatigue damage response is considered as a narrow-band Gaussian stationary random process with a zero mean for the short-term behavior of a riser. Non-linearity in a response associated with Morison-type wave loading is accounted for by using a factor, which is the ratio of expected damage according to a non-linear probability distribution to the expected damage according to a linear method of analysis. Long-term non-stationary response is obtained by summing up a large number of short-term stationary responses. Uncertainties associated with both the strength and stress parts of the limit state function are quantified by a lognormal distribution. A closed form reliability analysis is carried out, which is based on the limit state function formulated in terms of Miner’s cumulative damage rule. The results thus obtained are compared with the well-documented lognormal format of reliability analysis based on time to fatigue failure. The validity of using the lognormal hazard rate function in predicting the fatigue life is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used as a reliability assessment method. A simple algorithm is used to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct sampling at small probability of failure values and a small number of simulations. Simulation results are compared with closed form solutions. A worked example is included to show the practical riser design problem based on reliability analysis.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.