A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Marine renewable energy and public rights

Marine renewable energy is likely to be an important part of UK energy policy over the next decades. A start has already been made, but to generate power on a significant scale requires the use of vast areas of ocean, on which there are competing claims. Legislation, and in particular the Energy Act 2004, goes a long way towards giving developers the legal infrastructure they need, to invest with confidence. But it is far from perfect, in dealing with important competing rights. This article has a narrow (but important) focus. It assumes that there are no problems over jurisdiction or international law. It is concerned principally with the rights of UK citizens. The issue is about reconciling the generation of large-scale marine renewable energy with other legitimate uses of the sea, and in particular fishing and navigation rights.     

Managing land-use effects on Northland dune lakes: lessons from the past

The Northland region of New Zealand includes numerous high-value, macrophyte-dominated dune lakes. Recent water policy reforms offer limited guidance on managing for aquatic macrophytes. In addition, dune lake histories are poorly known as regular monitoring dates to 2005 AD. Here, ca. 4000 years of lake functional behaviour is reconstructed from sedimentary archives in two Northland dune lakes (Humuhumu and Rotokawau). Results demonstrated that macrophyte dominance is sensitive to catchment erosion and hydrological drawdown. Degradation of macrophyte communities occurred in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, earlier at Lake Humuhumu than Lake Rotokawau (post-1880 AD and post-1930 AD, respectively). In both lakes, increased erosional influx reduced macrophyte productivity, before later increases to wider trophic state (post-1970 AD). Lake-level decline is linked to increased nutrient loading at Lake Rotokawau but less so, Lake Humuhumu which is more strongly groundwater-fed. In Northland dune lakes, water-level reduction and erosional influx from land use have driven macrophyte degradation.     

Long-term stability of the fish assemblages in a warm-temperate South African estuary

Little is known about long-term changes in estuarine fish populations and related environmental variations. Fishes in the temporarily open/closed East Kleinemonde Estuary were sampled bi-annually, in summer and winter, using seine and gill nets between December 1994 and July 2005. A total of 18 families, represented by 33 species, were recorded. The 10 most abundant species caught were consistently recorded in catches each year, but CPUE of individual species varied on an annual basis and this can often be related to mouth state. Multivariate analyses of the annual marine fish community identified two distinct groups, with more species recorded during years that succeeded spring (September to November) mouth-opening events than in years following no mouth-opening events in spring. Interannual community stability (IMD) and seriation (IMS) also increased from the years following no opening events in spring to the years that succeeded spring opening events. These results highlight the importance of the timing of mouth opening to the marine fish community in a temporarily open/closed estuary. This study reinforces the importance of long-term studies to understanding community changes in estuaries caused by environmental variations over different time scales.     

Microbial photosynthesis in coral reef sediments (Heron Reef, Australia)

We investigated microphytobenthic photosynthesis at four stations in the coral reef sediments at Heron Reef, Australia. The microphytobenthos was dominated by diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria, as indicated by biomarker pigment analysis. Conspicuous algae firmly attached to the sand grains (ca. 100 μm in diameter, surrounded by a hard transparent wall) were rich in peridinin, a marker pigment for dinoflagellates, but also showed a high diversity based on cyanobacterial 16S rDNA gene sequence analysis. Specimens of these algae that were buried below the photic zone exhibited an unexpected stimulation of respiration by light, resulting in an increase of local oxygen concentrations upon darkening. Net photosynthesis of the sediments varied between 1.9 and 8.5 mmol O₂ m⁻² h⁻¹ and was strongly correlated with Chl a content, which lay between 31 and 84 mg m⁻². An estimate based on our spatially limited dataset indicates that the microphytobenthic production for the entire reef is in the order of magnitude of the production estimated for corals. Photosynthesis stimulated calcification at all investigated sites (0.2–1.0 mmol Ca²⁺ m⁻² h⁻¹). The sediments of at least three stations were net calcifying. Sedimentary N₂-fixation rates (measured by acetylene reduction assays at two sites) ranged between 0.9 to 3.9 mmol N₂ m⁻² h⁻¹ and were highest in the light, indicating the importance of heterocystous cyanobacteria. In coral fingers no N₂-fixation was measurable, which stresses the importance of the sediment compartment for reef nitrogen cycling.     

ENSO variability and the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) encompasses variability in both the eastern and western tropical Pacific. During the warm phase of ENSO, the eastern tropical Pacific is characterized by equatorial positive sea surface temperature (SST) and negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, while the western tropical Pacific is marked by off-equatorial negative SST and positive SLP anomalies. Corresponding to this distribution are equatorial westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific and equatorial easterly wind anomalies in the far western Pacific. Occurrence of ENSO has been explained as either a self-sustained, naturally oscillatory mode of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system or a stable mode triggered by stochastic forcing. Whatever the case, ENSO involves the positive ocean–atmosphere feedback hypothesized by Bjerknes. After an El Niño reaches its mature phase, negative feedbacks are required to terminate growth of the mature El Niño anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. Four requisite negative feedbacks have been proposed: reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, western Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves, and anomalous zonal advections. These negative feedbacks may work together for terminating El Niño, with their relative importance being time-dependent.ENSO variability is most pronounced along the equator and the coast of Ecuador and Peru. However, the eastern tropical Pacific also includes a warm pool north of the equator where important variability occurs. Seasonally, ocean advection seems to play an important role for SST variations of the eastern Pacific warm pool. Interannual variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool may be largely due to a direct oceanic connection with the ENSO variability at the equator. Variations in temperature, stratification, insolation, and productivity associated with ENSO have implications for phytoplankton productivity and for fish, birds, and other organisms in the region. Long-term changes in ENSO variability may be occurring and are briefly discussed. This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific.     

Oceanographic influences on seabirds and cetaceans of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific, the oceanic region centered on the eastern Pacific warm pool, but also including the equatorial cold tongue and equatorial current system, and summarizes what is known about oceanographic influences on seabirds and cetaceans there. The eastern tropical Pacific supports on the order of 50 species of seabirds and 30 species of cetaceans as regular residents; these include four endemic species, the world’s largest populations for several others, three endemic sub-species, and a multi-species community that is relatively unique to this ecosystem. Three of the meso-scale physical features of the region are particularly significant to seabirds and cetaceans: the Costa Rica Dome for blue whales and short-beaked common dolphins, the Equatorial Front for planktivorous seabirds, and the countercurrent thermocline ridge for flocking seabirds that associate with mixed-species schools of spotted and spinner dolphins and yellowfin tuna. A few qualitative studies of meso- to macro-scale distribution patterns have indicated that some seabirds and cetaceans have species-specific preferences for surface currents. More common are associations with distinct water masses; these relationships have been quantified for a number of species using several different analytical methods. The mechanisms underlying tropical species–habitat relationships are not well understood, in contrast to a number of higher-latitude systems. This may be due to the fact that physical variables have been used as proxies for prey abundance and distribution in species–habitat research in the eastern tropical Pacific.Though seasonal and interannual patterns tend to be complex, species–habitat relationships appear to remain relatively stable over time, and distribution patterns co-vary with patterns of preferred habitat for a number of species. The interactions between seasonal and interannual variation in oceanographic conditions with seasonal patterns in the biology of seabirds and cetaceans may account for some of the complexity in species–habitat relationship patterns.Little work has been done to investigate effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles on cetaceans, and results of the few studies focusing on oceanic seabirds are complex and not easy to interpret. Although much has been made of the detrimental effects of El Niño events on apex predators, more research is needed to understand the magnitude, and even direction, of these effects on seabirds and cetaceans in space and time.