Interaction of secondary circulations with the summer monsoon and diurnal rainfall over Hong Kong

A complete yearly record (1988) of surface measurements is used to examine the atmospheric diurnal secondary circulations over the entire area of Hong Kong in conjunction with spatial and temporal variations of surface temperature, wind speed and rainfall. Evidence of atmospheric diurnal secondary circulations is found at 10 sites. The occurrence of a summer morning rainfall maximum over the coast results from the interaction of the large-scale summer monsoon and local mesoscale secondary circulations. The afternoon onshore secondary circulation accelerates the advection of warm, humid unstable air and, coupled with the upward orographic lifting, produces enhanced rainfall along windward mountain ridges.Dynamical and scaling considerations suggest that the blocking effect is negligible and the primary forcing mechanism is land-sea temperature difference, but terrain effects are also important. Although the secondary circulation system's strength and timing vary, the circulation behaves like a classic sea-land breeze circulation, complicated by superimposed mountain-valley breezes.     

Exploring weathering and regolith transport controls on Critical Zone development with models and natural experiments

The architecture of the Critical Zone, including mobile regolith thickness and depth to the weathering front, is first order controlled by advance of a weathering front at depth and transport of sediment at the surface. Differences in conditions imposed by slope aspect in the Gordon Gulch catchment of the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory present a natural experiment to explore these interactions. The weathering front is deeper and saprolite more decayed on north-facing than on south-facing slopes. Simple numerical models of weathering front advance, mobile regolith production, and regolith transport are used to test how weathering and erosion rates interact in the evolution of weathered profiles. As the processes which attempt are being made to mimic are directly tied to climate variables such as mean annual temperature, the role of Quaternary climate variation in governing the evolution of Critical Zone architecture can be explored with greater confidence.     

Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquakes

Our analysis of the continuous outgoing long wave earth radiation (OLR) indicates anomalous variations prior to a number of medium to large earthquakes. The most recent analysis of OLR is from the M9.0 Sumatra Andaman Islands mega trust event. We compared the reference fields for December 2001 to 2004 and found OLR anomalous values, > 80 W/m², (2σ) within the epicentral area on Dec 21, 2004, 5 days before the event. We used the NOAA/IR daily (one degree) and monthly (two and half degree) gridded data to differentiate between the global and seasonal variability and the transient local anomalies. The cause of such anomalies is not fully understood; one possible explanation is the existence of thermal outgoing radiation as a result of near ground air ionization and latent heat change due to change of air humidity and temperature. This phenomenon is hypothesized to be part of a relationship between tectonic stresses, electrochemical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and increasing mid IR flux, all part of a family of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena related to earthquake activity. The time scale of the observed variations is a few weeks before the onset of the seismic event. In comparison with several years of data, the observed time-series preceding the earthquake had unusually high OLR. The OLR anomaly corresponds to a large area of ground coverage and coincides with the main epicentral zone. The significance of these observations is explored using data from most recent East Asian earthquake swarm of December 2004 and three other earthquakes.     

Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today??s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region??s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder?Cscientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.     

Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries

IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.     

Particulate content of savanna fire emissions

As part of the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto (Ivory Coast) in January 1991, various aerosol samples were collected at ground level near prescribed fires or under local background conditions, to characterize the emissions of particulate matter from the burning of savanna vegetation. This paper deals with total aerosol (TPM) and carbon measurements. Detailed trace element and polycyclic hydrocarbon data are discussed in other papers presented in this issue.Near the fire plumes, the aerosols from biomass burning are primarily of a carbonaceous nature (C%70% of the aerosol mass) and consist predominantly of submicron particles (more than 90% in mass.) They are characterized by their organic nature (black to total carbon ratio Cb/Ct in the range 3–20%) and their high potassium content (K/Cb0.6). These aerosols undergo aging during their first minutes in the atmosphere causing slight alterations in their size distribution and chemical composition. However, they remain enriched in potassium (K/Cb=0.21) and pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, such that both of these species may be used as tracers of savanna burning aerosols. We show that during this period of the year, the background atmosphere experiences severe pollution from both terrigenous sources and regional biomass burning (44% of the aerosol). Daynight variations of the background carbon concentrations suggest that fire ignition and spreading occur primarily during the day. Simultaneous TPM and CO₂ real-time measurements point to a temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the burning so that the ratio of the above background concentrations (TPM/CO₂) varies from 2 to 400 g/kg C. Smoldering processes are intense sources of particles but particulate emissions may also be important during the rapidly spreading heading fires in connection with the generation of heavy brown smoke. We propose emission factor values (EF) for aerosols from the savanna biomass burning aerosols: EF (TPM)=11.4±4.6 and 69±25 g/kg C_{dry plant} and EF(Ct)=7.4±3.4 and 56±16 g C/kg C_{dry plant} for flaming and smoldering processes respectively. In these estimates, the range of uncertainty is mostly due to the intra-fire variability. These values are significantly lower than those reported in the literature for the combustion of other types of vegetation. But due to the large amounts of vegetation biomass being burnt in African savannas, the annual flux of particulate carbon into the atmosphere is estimated to be of the order of 8 Tg C, which rivals particulate carbon emissions from anthropogenic activities in temperate regions.     

Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.     

Reconnaissance par sismique réfraction de la décompression et de l’instabilite des falaises vives du Bessin (Normandie,France)

Résumé

Les falaises normandes du Bessin (France) sont constituées par une succession de formations calcaires et marneuses. De nombreux mouvements de terrain, parfois de grande ampleur, affectent périodiquement ces falaises. La faible résistance mécanique des marnes, mise en évidence lors de l’étude du récent glissement du Bouffay de 1981, a dû être favorisée par un fluage associé à la décompression des calcaires sus-jacents suivant un type de déformation qui peut être observé dans un mouvement quaternaire fossilisé (vallon du Pisseau). Grâce à une reconnaissance systématique de la zone décomprimée par la petite sismique réfraction, des relations simples sont établies, permettant d’évaluer le volume décomprimé â partir des caractéristiques géométriques et lithologiques de la falaise. Ce volume semble définir l’enveloppe à l’intérieur de laquelle les mouvements sont susceptibles d’intervenir.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thalassia testudinum</Emphasis> Leaf Tissue Nutrients at the Chandeleur Islands,Louisiana, USA

Seagrasses are submerged marine plants that are anchored to the substrate and are therefore limited to assimilating nutrients from the surrounding water column or sediment, or by translocating nutrients from adjacent shoots through the belowground rhizome. As a result, seagrasses have been used as reliable ecosystem indicators of surrounding nutrient conditions. The Chandeleur Islands are a chain of barrier islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico that support the only marine seagrass beds in Louisiana, USA, and are the sole location of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum across nearly 1000 km of the coastline from west Florida to central Texas. Over the past 150 years, the land area of the Chandeleur Islands has decreased by over half, resulting in a decline of seagrass cover. The goals of this study were to characterize the status of a climax seagrass species at the Chandeleur Islands, T. testudinum, in terms of leaf nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) changes over time, from 1998 to 2015, and to assess potential drivers of leaf nutrient content. Thalassia testudinum leaf nutrients displayed considerable interannual variability in N and P content and molar ratios, which broadly mimicked patterns in annual average dissolved nutrient concentrations in the lower Mississippi River. Hydrological modeling demonstrated the potential for multiple scenarios that would deliver Mississippi River water, and thus nutrients, to T. testudinum at the Chandeleur Islands. Although coastal eutrophication is generally accepted as the proximate cause for seagrass loss globally, there is little evidence that nutrient input from the Mississippi River has driven the dramatic declines observed in seagrasses at the Chandeleur Islands. Rather, seagrass cover along the Chandeleur Islands appears to be strongly influenced by island geomorphological processes. Although variable over time, the often elevated nutrient levels of the climax seagrass species, T. testudinum, which are potentially driven by river-derived nutrient inputs, raises an important consideration of the potential loss of the ecosystem functions and services associated with these declining seagrass meadows.     

Constraining models of the tectonic setting of the giant Olympic Dam iron oxide–copper–gold deposit, South Australia, using deep seismic reflection data

In the Gawler Craton, the completeness of cover concealing the crystalline basement in the region of the giant Olympic Dam Cu–Au deposit has impeded any sufficient understanding of the crustal architecture and tectonic setting of its IOCG mineral-system. To circumvent this problem, deep seismic reflection data were recently acquired from  250 line-km of two intersecting traverses, centered on the Olympic Dam deposit. The data were recorded to 18 s TWT ( 55 km). The crust consists of Neoproterozoic cover, in places more than 5 km thick, over crystalline basement with the Moho at depths of 13–14 s TWT ( 40–42 km). The Olympic Dam deposit lies on the boundary between two distinct pieces of crust, one interpreted as the Archean–Paleoproterozoic core to the craton, the other as a Meso–Neoproterozoic mobile belt. The host to the deposit, a member of the  1590 Ma Hiltaba Suite of granites, is situated above a zone of reduced impedance contrast in the lower crust, which we interpret to be source-region for its  1000 °C magma. The crystalline basement is dominated by thrusts. This contrasts with widely held models for the tectonic setting of Olympic Dam, which predict extension associated with heat from the mantle producing the high temperatures required to generate the Hiltaba Suite granites implicated in mineralization. We use the seismic data to test four hypotheses for this heat-source: mantle underplating, a mantle-plume, lithospheric extension, and radioactive heating in the lower crust. We reject the first three hypotheses. The data cannot be used to reject or confirm the fourth hypothesis.