Orbital and thermal evolutions of four potential targets for a sample return space mission to a primitive near-Earth asteroid

In this paper, we present our study of the orbital and thermal evolutions, due to solar radiative heating, of four near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) considered as potential target candidates for sample return space missions to primitive asteroids. We used a dynamical model of the NEA population to estimate the most likely source region and orbital history of these objects. Then, for each asteroid, we integrated numerically over their entire lifetime a set of 14 initially indistinguishable orbit (clones), obtained by small variations of the nominal initial conditions. Using a thermal model, we then computed surface and sub-surface temperatures of these bodies during their dynamical history. Our aim is to determine whether these bodies are likely to have experienced high temperature level, and whether great temperature changes can be expected due to the orbital changes as well as their maximum and minimum values. Such information is important in the framework of sample return space missions whose goal is to bring back pristine materials. The knowledge of the temperature range of materials at different depth over the orbital evolution of potential targets can help defining sampling strategies that ensure the likelihood that unaltered material will be brought back. Our results suggest that for all the considered potential targets, the surface has experienced for some time temperatures greater than 400 K and at most 500 K with 50% probability. This probability drops rapidly with increasing temperature. Sub-surface materials at a depth of only 3 cm are much more protected from high temperature and generally do not reach temperatures exceeding 450 K (with 50% probability). They should thus be unaltered at this depth at least from a Sun-driven heating point of view. On the other hand, surface material for some of the considered objects can have a range of temperature which can make them less reliable as pristine materials. However, it is assumed here that the same material is constantly exposed to solar heat, while regolith turnover may occur. The latter can be caused by different processes such as seismic shaking and/or impact cratering. This would reduce the total time that materials are exposed to a certain temperature. Thus, it is very likely that a sample collected from any of the four considered targets, or any primitive NEA with similar dynamical properties, will have components that will be thermally unaltered as long as some of it comes from only 3 to 5 cm depth. Such a depth is not considered difficult to reach with some of the current designs of sampling devices.     

Applications of the DFT/CLEAN Technique to Solar Time Series

A new technique of Fourier analysis, DFT/CLEAN, has been adapted for the study of solar time series. The technique was developed by Roberts and his collaborators (1987, 1994) to address the limitations of other techniques of Fourier analysis and the shortcomings of many astronomical time series. The utility of the technique is illustrated with several applications to solar time series.     

On the cooling of the moon by solid convection

If a molten, or partially molten, lunar core exists at present, constraints would be placed on the viscosity of the solid mantle and the distribution of radioactive heat sources. Models in which the heat sources have been concentrated near the surface would rapidly solidify if the effective viscosity was equal to, or less than, 10²² cm² s⁻¹. Retention of most of the heat sources throughout the mantle would permit present day solid convection to occur without cooling the core.     

DHI evaluation by combining rock physics simulation and statistical techniques for fluid identification of Cambrian-to-Cretaceous clastic reservoirs in Pakistan

The use of seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators is very common in exploration and reservoir development to minimise exploration risk and to optimise the location of production wells. DHIs can be enhanced using AVO methods to calculate seismic attributes that approximate relative elastic properties. In this study, we analyse the sensitivity to pore fluid changes of a range of elastic properties by combining rock physics studies and statistical techniques and determine which provide the best basis for DHIs. Gassmann fluid substitution is applied to the well log data and various elastic properties are evaluated by measuring the degree of separation that they achieve between gas sands and wet sands. The method has been applied successfully to well log data from proven reservoirs in three different siliciclastic environments of Cambrian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous ages. We have quantified the sensitivity of various elastic properties such as acoustic and extended elastic (EEI) impedances, elastic moduli (K _sat and K _sat–μ), lambda–mu–rho method (λρ and μρ), P-to-S-wave velocity ratio (V _P/V _S), and Poisson’s ratio (σ) at fully gas/water saturation scenarios. The results are strongly dependent on the local geological settings and our modeling demonstrates that for Cambrian and Cretaceous reservoirs, K _sat–μ, EEI, V _P/V _S, and σ are more sensitive to pore fluids (gas/water). For the Jurassic reservoir, the sensitivity of all elastic and seismic properties to pore fluid reduces due to high overburden pressure and the resultant low porosity. Fluid indicators are evaluated using two metrics: a fluid indicator coefficient based on a Gaussian model and an overlap coefficient which makes no assumptions about a distribution model. This study will provide a potential way to identify gas sand zones in future exploration.     

Two Unusual Episodes of ≈13-Day Variations II. Implications for the Solar Radio Flux Density, <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>10.7 cm</Subscript>

Additional analysis of the behavior of the international sunspot number (R) series and the solar radio flux density (F_{10.7 cm}) series during two long (250–500 days) and distinct episodes of persistent ≈13-day variations (Crane, Solar Phys. 1998, 253, 177) is reported. The conclusion is that while the center-to-limb behavior of R does not change between solar minimum and solar maximum, F_{10.7 cm} exhibits significantly less limb brightening at solar maximum than at solar minimum.     

Developing service-oriented applications in a grid environment

The Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) software framework has evolved over the last 10 years to become a robust, high performance, service oriented architecture for the access and transport of scientific data from a broad variety of disciplines, over the Internet. Starting with version 4.0 of the server release, Hyrax, has at its core, the Back-End Server (BES). The BES offers ease of programming, extensibility and reliability allowing added functionality especially related to high-performance data Grids, that goes beyond its original goal of distributed data access. We present the fundamentals of the BES server as a component based architecture, as well as our experiences using the BES to distribute data processing in Grid-oriented intensive parallel computational tasks.     

Application of drone-captured thermal imagery in aiding in the recovery of meteorites within a snow-covered strewn field

The rapid recovery of meteorites mitigates the exposure of astromaterials to the terrestrial environment and subsequent contamination. Modern fireball observatories have enabled the more accurate triangulation of fireball trajectories, which has aided in the location of strewn fields, in the case of meteorite-producing events. Despite this advancement, most meteorite searches still use manual searching to locate any meteorite falls, which is often labor-intensive and has a slow coverage rate (km² day⁻¹). Recent work has begun exploring the application of drone technology to the recovery of meteorites; however, most of this work has focused on falls in arid environments. Our study examines the utilization of drones with thermal imaging technology to aid in the recovery of meteorites that have fallen on a snow-covered field. We created a simulated strewn field that included meteorite specimens as well as Earth rocks with similar properties (“meteowrongs”). Thermal imagery was utilized to determine whether the thermal contrast between meteorites and snow could aid in the identification of meteorites. We found that the thermal contrast was significant enough that meteorites were readily identifiable within thermal images; however, it was not significant enough to distinguish between the meteorites and the meteowrongs. The utilization of thermal imagery in conjunction with visible imagery has the potential to aid in the rapid recovery of meteorites in snow-covered landscapes.     

An upper limit on the aperture separation of ion drift meters

An upper limit has been calculated on the effective aperture separation or detector thickness of ion drift meters of two fundamental types. The limit applies to meters which compare currents collected by detectors with different view directions at the same retarding potential and to meters which measure the entire thermal ion distribution function. For both types, a single scanned detector may be employed instead of multiple detectors, in which case the limit applies to twice the radius of curvature of the path followed by the detector aperture during a scan, (i.e. the diameter of a spinning payload). The limit was found to be important in two cases. First, in the F region on spacecraft with stringent electrostatic cleanliness requirements, the 10% error limit was found to be 40 cm. Second, in the E region, the limit was found to be 1 cm.Originally submitted to the journalSpace Science Instrumentation.Deceased.     

Continental ridges in the Arctic Ocean: Lorex constraints

Recent multidisciplinary geophysical measurements over the Lomonosov Ridge close to the North Pole support the widely held belief that it was formerly part of Eurasia. The known lithologies, ages, P-wave velocity structure and thickness of the crust along the outer Barents and Kara continental shelves are similar to permitted or measured values of these parameters newly acquired over the Lomonosov Ridge. Seismic, gravity and magnetic data in particular show that the ridge basement is most likely formed of early Mesozoic or older sedimentary or low-grade metasedimentary rocks over a crystalline core that is intermediate to basic in composition. Short-wavelength magnetic anomaly highs along the upper ridge flanks and crest may denote the presence of shallow igneous rocks. Because of the uncertain component of ice-rafted material, seafloor sediments recovered from the ridge by shallow sampling techniques cannot be clearly related to ridge basement lithology without further detailed analysis. The ridge is cut at the surface and at depth by normal faults that appear related to the development of the Makarov Basin. This and other data are consistent with the idea that the Makarov Basin was formed by continental stretching rather than simple seafloor spreading. Hence the flanking Alpha and Lomonosov ridges may originally have been part of the same continental block. It is suggested that in Late Cretaceous time this block was sheared from Eurasia along a trans-Arctic left-lateral offset that may have been associated with the opening of Baffin Bay. The continental block was later separated from Eurasia when the North Altantic rift extended into the Arctic region in the Early Tertiary. The data suggest that the Makarov Basin did not form before the onset of rifting in the Artic.     

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970