Modeled Sverdrup flow in the North Atlantic from 11 different wind stress climatologies

In studies of large-scale ocean dynamics, often quoted values of Sverdrup transport are computed using the Hellerman–Rosenstein wind stress climatology. The Sverdrup solution varies, however, depending on the wind set used. We examine the differences in the large-scale upper ocean response to different surface momentum forcing fields for the North Atlantic Ocean by comparing the different Sverdrup interior/Munk western boundary layer solutions produced by a 1/16° linear numerical ocean model forced by 11 different wind stress climatologies. Significant differences in the results underscore the importance of careful selection of a wind set for Sverdrup transport calculation and for driving nonlinear models. This high-resolution modeling approach to solving the linear wind-driven ocean circulation problem is a convenient way to discern details of the Sverdrup flow and Munk western boundary layers in areas of complicated geometry such as the Caribbean and Bahamas. In addition, the linear solutions from a large number of wind sets provide a well-understood baseline oceanic response to wind stress forcing and thus, (1) insight into the dynamics of observed circulation features, by themselves and in conjunction with nonlinear models, and (2) insight into nonlinear model sensitivity to the choice of wind-forcing product.The wind stress products are evaluated and insight into the linear dynamics of specific ocean features is obtained by examining wind stress curl patterns in relation to the corresponding high-resolution linear solutions in conjunction with observational knowledge of the ocean circulation. In the Sverdrup/Munk solutions, the Gulf Stream pathway consists of two branches. One separates from the coast at the observed separation point, but penetrates due east in an unrealistic manner. The other, which overshoots the separation point at Cape Hatteras and continues to flow northward along the continental boundary, is required to balance the Sverdrup interior transport. A similar depiction of the Gulf Stream is commonly seen in the mean flow of nonlinear, eddy-resolving basin-scale models of the North Atlantic Ocean. An O(1) change from linear dynamics is required for realistic simulation of the Gulf Stream pathway. Nine of the eleven Sverdrup solutions have a C-shaped subtropical gyre, similar to what is seen in dynamic height contours derived from observations. Three mechanisms are identified that can contribute to this pattern in the Sverdrup transport contours. Along 27°N, several wind sets drive realistic total western boundary current transport (within 10% of observed) when a 14 Sv global thermohaline contribution is added (COADS, ECMWF 10 m re-analysis and operational, Hellerman–Rosenstein and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) surface stress re-analysis), a few drive transport that is substantially too high (ECMWF 1000 mb re-analysis and operational and Isemer–Hasse) and Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) surface stresses give linear transport that is slightly weaker than observed. However, higher order dynamics are required to explain the partitioning of this transport between the Florida Straits and just east of the Bahamas (minimal in the linear solutions vs. 5 Sv observed east of the Bahamas). Part of the Azores Current transport is explained by Sverdrup dynamics. So are the basic path of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the circulation features within the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS), when a linear rendition of the northward upper ocean return flow of the global thermohaline circulation is added in the form of a Munk western boundary layer.     

Characterisation of Soot Emitted by Domestic Heating,Aircraft and Cars Using Diesel or Biodiesel

The characterisation of aggregates, like soot, firstly requires the determination of the size distribution of the primary particles. The primary particle size of combustion generated aggregates depends upon the combustion environment and the formation conditions, such as temperature, pressure and fuel-to-air ratio, among others. Since the combustion characteristics are different in the different types of burners, the characterisation of primary particles may offer the possibility to distinguish soot from different sources. In this paper, we present the signature of the primary particles and the aggregates of soot emitted by cars using diesel or biodiesel, by domestic heating, and by aircraft exhausts, which can be considered as the major sources as derived from measurements on transmission electron micrographs. The size distributions of all aggregates types with different aerodynamic diameter were log-normal and quasi-monodisperse. The size distribution of the primary particles for soot emitted by different sources showed minor differences. However, a comparison between the diameter of the primary particles and those obtained using a standard method for carbon black revealed discrepancies. The median diameter of the primary particles was combined with the median number of primary particles in an aggregate to calculate the relative particle surface area available for adsorption. In a similar way, the relative specific surface area was determined. The surface area was measured using the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (B.E.T.) nitrogen adsorption method and the relative surface area available for adsorption was calculated.     

The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

Comparison of Positron Emission Tomography and X-ray radiography for studies of physical processes in sandstone

The migration of moisture in cores of porous homogeneous sandstone of Ledian age (Belgian Eocene, Tertiary) is monitored with PET (Positron Emission Tomography) and micro-focus X-ray radiography. In the case of PET, a nuclear medical imaging technique, ⁵⁵Co-EDTA (Ethylenediamine Tetraacetic acid) and R-¹⁸F were used as water-soluble tracers. The X-ray projection method has evolved from the better-known medical technique and allows a fast and accurate determination of the two-dimensional transient moisture content profiles. Results indicate that both techniques can deliver important information concerning physical processes in situ.     

The gas content and buoyancy of strombolian ash plumes

Plinian plumes erupt with a bulk density greater than that of air, and depend upon air entrainment during their gas-thrust phase to become buoyant; if entrainment is insufficient, the column collapses into a potentially deadly pyroclastic flow. This study shows that strombolian ash plumes can be erupted in an initially buoyant state due to their extremely high initial gas content, and in such cases are thus impervious to column collapse. The high gas content is a consequence of decoupled gas rise in the conduit, in which particles are ultimately incidental. The relations between conduit gas flow, eruption style and plume density are explored here for strombolian scenarios and contrasted with conventional wisdom derived from plinian eruptions. Considering the inherent relation between gas content and initial plume density together with detailed measurements of plume velocities can help unravel ambiguities surrounding conduit processes, eruption styles and hazards at poorly understood volcanoes. Analysis of plume dynamics at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala adds further support for a model involving decoupled gas rise in the conduit.     

Nonparametric Estimates of the Sea State Bias for the Jason-1 Radar Altimeter

The Jason-1 sea state bias (SSB) is analyzed in depth from the first year of GDR products. Compared to previous missions, this work benefits from two aspects of the empirical determination of the SSB from the altimetric data themselves. First, from a methodological point of view, a nonparametric technique (NP) has been developed and largely tested on TOPEX/Poseidon 1, GFO and Envisat data. The NP estimator has proven to be a useful tool in the SSB estimation, and it is now mature enough to be used for a refined analysis. On the other hand, the SSB can be extracted from three different data sets (crossovers, collinear data, and residuals) with different characteristics. It is then possible to cross calibrate various estimations of the SSB models and to determine the most accurate one. A systematic comparison is made between these different estimates for the Jason-1 altimeter. The collinear and crossover data sets yield very similar estimates despite their difference of spatial and temporal distributions. These SSB models assure consistency with the TOPEX mission when comparing Jason-1 and TOPEX residuals during the tandem phase. Thanks to the present work, the impact of the short wavelengths filtering on the SSB estimation is evidenced. More generally, our understanding of potential errors affecting the sea surface height and their impact onto the SSB estimation is also improved.     

Identification of hydrochemical facies in the Roswell Artesian Basin,New Mexico (USA), using graphical and statistical methods

Analysis of groundwater chemistry can yield important insights about subsurface conditions, and provide an alternative and complementary method for characterizing basin hydrogeology, especially in areas where hydraulic data are limited. More specifically, hydrochemical facies have been used for decades to help understand basin flow and transport, and a set of facies were developed for the Roswell Artesian Basin (RAB) in a semi-arid part of New Mexico, USA. The RAB is an important agricultural water source, and is an excellent example of a rechargeable artesian system. However, substantial uncertainties about the RAB hydrogeology and groundwater chemistry exist. The RAB was a great opportunity to explore hydrochemcial facies definition. A set of facies, derived from fingerprint diagrams (graphical approach), existed as a basis for testing and for comparison to principal components, factor analysis, and cluster analyses (statistical approaches). Geochemical data from over 300 RAB wells in the central basin were examined. The statistical testing of fingerprint-diagram-based facies was useful in terms of quantitatively evaluating differences between facies, and for understanding potential controls on basin groundwater chemistry. This study suggests the presence of three hydrochemical facies in the shallower part of the RAB (mostly unconfined conditions) and three in the deeper artesian system of the RAB. These facies reflect significant spatial differences in chemistry in the basin that are associated with specific stratigraphic intervals as well as structural features. Substantial chemical variability across faults and within fault blocks was also observed.     

From outwash to coastal systems in the Portneuf–Forestville deltaic complex (Québec North Shore): Anatomy of a forced regressive deglacial sequence

Deglacial sequences typically include backstepping grounding zone wedges and prevailing glaciomarine depositional facies. However, in coastal domains, deglacial sequences are dominated by depositional systems ranging from turbiditic to fluvial facies. Such deglacial sequences are strongly impacted by glacio‐isostatic rebound, the rate and amplitude of which commonly outpaces those of post‐glacial eustatic sea‐level rise. This results in a sustained relative sea‐level fall covering the entire depositional time interval. This paper examines a Late Quaternary, forced regressive, deglacial sequence located on the North Shore of the St. Lawrence Estuary (Portneuf Peninsula, Québec, Canada) and aims to decipher the main controls that governed its stratigraphic architecture. The forced regressive deglacial sequence forms a thick (>100 m) and extensive (>100 km²) multiphased deltaic complex emplaced after the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet margin from the study area ca 12 500 years ago. The sedimentary succession is composed of ice‐contact, glaciomarine, turbiditic, deltaic, fluvial and coastal depositional units. A four‐stage development is recognized: (i) an early ice‐contact stage (esker, glaciomarine mud and outwash fan); (ii) an in‐valley progradational stage (fjord head or moraine‐dammed lacustrine deltas) fed by glacigenics; (iii) an open‐coast deltaic progradation, when proglacial depositional systems expanded beyond the valley outlets and merged together; and (iv) a final stage of river entrenchment and shallow marine reworking that affected the previously emplaced deltaic complex. Most of the sedimentary volume (10 to 15 km³) was emplaced during the three‐first stages over a ca 2 kyr interval. In spite of sustained high rates of relative sea‐level fall (50 to 30 mm·year^?1), delta plain accretion occurred up to the end of the proglacial open‐coast progradational stage. River entrenchment only occurred later, after a significant decrease in the relative sea‐level fall rates (<30 mm·year^?1), and was concurrent with the formation and preservation of extensive coastal deposits (raised beaches, spit platform and barrier sands). The turnaround from delta plain accretion to river entrenchment and coastal erosion is interpreted to be a consequence of the retreat of the ice margin from the river drainage basins that led to the drastic drop of sediment supply and the abrupt decrease in progradation rates. The main internal stratigraphic discontinuity within the forced regressive deglacial sequence does not reflect changes in relative sea‐level variations.