Spatial and Temporal Patterns in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thalassia testudinum</Emphasis> Leaf Tissue Nutrients at the Chandeleur Islands,Louisiana, USA

Seagrasses are submerged marine plants that are anchored to the substrate and are therefore limited to assimilating nutrients from the surrounding water column or sediment, or by translocating nutrients from adjacent shoots through the belowground rhizome. As a result, seagrasses have been used as reliable ecosystem indicators of surrounding nutrient conditions. The Chandeleur Islands are a chain of barrier islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico that support the only marine seagrass beds in Louisiana, USA, and are the sole location of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum across nearly 1000 km of the coastline from west Florida to central Texas. Over the past 150 years, the land area of the Chandeleur Islands has decreased by over half, resulting in a decline of seagrass cover. The goals of this study were to characterize the status of a climax seagrass species at the Chandeleur Islands, T. testudinum, in terms of leaf nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) changes over time, from 1998 to 2015, and to assess potential drivers of leaf nutrient content. Thalassia testudinum leaf nutrients displayed considerable interannual variability in N and P content and molar ratios, which broadly mimicked patterns in annual average dissolved nutrient concentrations in the lower Mississippi River. Hydrological modeling demonstrated the potential for multiple scenarios that would deliver Mississippi River water, and thus nutrients, to T. testudinum at the Chandeleur Islands. Although coastal eutrophication is generally accepted as the proximate cause for seagrass loss globally, there is little evidence that nutrient input from the Mississippi River has driven the dramatic declines observed in seagrasses at the Chandeleur Islands. Rather, seagrass cover along the Chandeleur Islands appears to be strongly influenced by island geomorphological processes. Although variable over time, the often elevated nutrient levels of the climax seagrass species, T. testudinum, which are potentially driven by river-derived nutrient inputs, raises an important consideration of the potential loss of the ecosystem functions and services associated with these declining seagrass meadows.     

A field study (Massachusetts, USA) of the factors controlling the depth of groundwater flow systems in crystalline fractured-rock terrain

Groundwater movement and availability in crystalline and metamorphosed rocks is dominated by the secondary porosity generated through fracturing. The distributions of fractures and fracture zones determine permeable pathways and the productivity of these rocks. Controls on how these distributions vary with depth in the shallow subsurface (<300 m) and their resulting influence on groundwater flow is not well understood. The results of a subsurface study in the Nashoba and Avalon terranes of eastern Massachusetts (USA), which is a region experiencing expanded use of the fractured bedrock as a potable-supply aquifer, are presented. The study logged the distribution of fractures in 17 boreholes, identified flowing fractures, and hydraulically characterized the rock mass intersecting the boreholes. Of all fractures encountered, 2.5% are hydraulically active. Boreholes show decreasing fracture frequency up to 300 m depth, with hydraulically active fractures showing a similar trend; this restricts topographically driven flow. Borehole temperature profiles corroborate this, with minimal hydrologically altered flow observed in the profiles below 100 m. Results from this study suggest that active flow systems in these geologic settings are shallow and that fracture permeability outside of the influence of large-scale structures will follow a decreasing trend with depth.     

Economic and climatic factors in ‘acreage abandonment’ over marginal cropland

Crop yield projections made at planting time or during the growing season often ignore the fact that an unknown percentage of planted acreage is not harvested. As a solution, we present a model for 'acreage abandonment, based upon both economic and weather variables. Weather is shown to be a much more important determinant of the decision not to harvest than is the expected price. The explained variance in abandonment of spring wheat acreage by future delivery price is approximately 16%, but rises to over 60% when weather variables are added. In a similarly designed model for winter wheat in the southern plains, the price contribution is less than 5%.The spring wheat model was tested on two extensive sets of withheld data: three-year successive deletions through the entire (1932–1975) data set, and a ten year block at the beginning of the modelling period that included substantial weather and price perturbations induced by the dust bowl, depression, and attendant market gyrations. Predictive capability was retained in both tests.Current weather appears to weigh more heavily in the abandonment decision than does future price.     

Secular changes in the short-term preventive,positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909

Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the shortterm preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development.The causes of a high mortality are various; but the greater number of known causes may be referred to five heads: 1) excessive cold or heat; 2) privation of food; 3) effluvial poisons generated in marshes, foul prisons, camps, cities; and epidemic diseases, such as typhus, plague, small pox, and other zymotic diseases; 4) mechanical and chemical injuries; 5) spontaneous disorders to which the structure of the human organization renders it liable. - Farr (1846, p. 164)....a foresight of the difficulties attending the rearing of a family acts as a preventive check, and the actual distresses of some of the lower classes, by which they are disabled from giving the proper food and attention to their children, acts as a positive check to the natural increase of population. - Malthus (1798, Chapter 4).The research on which this paper is based has been funded by grants R01-HD18107 and T32-HD07275 from the U.S. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. This paper is associated with the author's Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Preindustrial Europe,Population Studies 42, 2, 1988, 275-303. I thank Ronald Lee, Ulla Larsen, and Jan de Vries for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Scaling of the Vertical Spreading of a Plume of a Passive Tracer in a Rough-Wall Neutral Boundary Layer

The influence of surface roughness on the dispersion of a passive scalar in a rough wall turbulent boundary layer has been studied using wind-tunnel experiments. The surface roughness was varied using different sizes of roughness elements, and different spacings between the elements. Vertical profiles of average concentration were measured at different distances downwind of the source, and the vertical spread of the plume was computed by fitting a double Gaussian profile to the data. An estimate of the integral length scale is derived from the turbulence characteristics of the boundary layer and is then used to scale the measured values of plume spread. This scaling reduces the variability in the data, confirming the validity of the model for the Lagrangian integral time scale, but does not remove it entirely. The scaled plume spreading shows significant differences from predictions of theoretical models both in the near and in the far field. In the region immediately downwind of the source this is due to the influence of the wake of the injector for which we have developed a simple model. In the far field we explain that the differences are mainly due to the absence of large-scale motions. Finally, further downwind of the source the scaled values of plume spread fall into two distinct groups. It is suggested that the difference between the two groups may be related to the lack of dynamical similarity between the boundary-layer flows for varying surface roughness or to biased estimates of the plume spread.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Isolation of 12 microsatellite markers following a pyrosequencing procedure and cross-priming in two invasive cryptic species, Alexandrium catenella (group IV) and A. tamarense (group III) (Dinophyceae)

Alexandrium catenella (group IV) and Alexandrium tamarense (group III) (Dinophyceae) are two cryptic invasive phytoplankton species belonging to the A. tamarense species complex. Their worldwide spread is favored by the human activities, transportation and climate change. In order to describe their diversity in the Mediterranean Sea and understand their settlements and maintenances in this area, new microsatellite markers were developed based on Thau lagoon (France) samples of A. catenella and A. tamarense strains. In this study twelve new microsatellite markers are proposed. Five of these microsatellite markers show amplifications on A. tamarense and ten on A. catenella. Three of these 12 microsatellite markers allowed amplifications on both cryptic species. Finally, the haplotypic diversity ranged from 0.000 to 0.791 and 0.000 to 0.942 for A. catenella and A. tamarense respectively.     

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.