Migrating pingos in the permafrost region of the Tibetan Plateau, China and their hazard along the Golmud–Lhasa railway

Most pingos in the permafrost region of the high northern Tibetan Plateau form along active fault zones and many change position annually along the zones and thus appear to migrate. The fault zones conduct geothermal heat, which thins permafrost, and control cool to hot springs in the region. They maintain ground-water circulation through broken rock in an open system to supply water for pingo growth during the winter in overlying fluvial and lacustrian deposits. Springs remain after the pingos thaw in the summer. Fault movement, earthquakes and man's activities cause the water pathways supplying pingos to shift and consequently the pingos migrate.

The hazard posed to the new Golmud–Lhasa railway across the plateau by migrating pingos is restricted to active fault zones, but is serious, as these zones are common and generate large earthquakes. Pingos have damaged the highway and the oil pipeline adjacent to the railway since 2001. One caused tilting and breaking of a bridge pier and destroyed a highway bridge across the Chumaerhe fault. Another has already caused minor damage to a new railway bridge. Furthermore, the construction of a bridge pier in the North Wuli fault zone in July–August 2003 created a conduit for a new spring, which created a pingo during the following winter. Measures taken to drain the ground-water via a tunnel worked well and prevented damage before the railway tracks were laid. However, pier vibrations from subsequent train motion disrupted the drain and led to new springs, which may induce further pingo growth beneath the bridge.

The migrating pingos result from active fault movement promoting artesian ground-water circulation and changing water pathways under the seasonal temperature variations in the permafrost region. They pose a serious hazard to railway construction, which, in turn can further disturb the ground-water conduits and affect pingo migration.     

Modélisation géométrique 3D des granites stéphaniens du massif du Pelvoux (Alpes,France)

The structural analysis and the 3D modelling of Stephanian granites of the Pelvoux Massif characterize an emplacement along sinistral NW–SE- and dextral NE–SW-trending shear zones in the Pelvoux and in the Aiguilles Rouges–Mont Blanc Massifs, respectively. This Carboniferous shear system is consistent with a north–south extension direction known in the whole Variscan belt at this time. To cite this article: P. Strzerzynski et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Seasonal distribution of sulfur fractions in Louisiana salt marsh soils

The profile distributions of specific sulfur forms were examined at a site in a Louisiana salt marsh over a 1-yr period. Soil samples were fractionated into acid-volatile sulfides, HCl-soluble sulfur, elemental sulfur, pyrite sulfur, ester-sulfate sulfur, carbon-bonded sulfur, and total sulfur. Inorganic sulfur constituted 16% to 36% of total sulfur, with pyrite sulfur representing <2%. Pyrite sulfur content in marsh soil was relatively high in winter. Pyrite sulfur and elemental sulfur together accounted for 4% to 24% of the inorganic sulfur fraction. Between 74% and 95% of inorganic sulfur was present as the HCl-soluble sulfur form. A significant negative correlation between acid-volatile sulfides and elemental sulfur observed in summer suggested the transformation of fulfides to elemental sulfur. Organic sulfur, in the forms of ester-sulfate sulfur and carbon-bonded sulfur, predominated in all sampling periods, comprising 64% to 84% of total sulfur. The conversion of ester-sulfate sulfur into carbon-bonded sulfur was more likely to occur in winter than in other seasons. Carbon-bonded sulfur accounted for 53% to 89% of the organic sulfur. Organic sulfur was the major contributor to the variation of total sulfur in all seasons studied. Total sulfur concentration showed a statistically significant increase with depth.     

Scaling of the Vertical Spreading of a Plume of a Passive Tracer in a Rough-Wall Neutral Boundary Layer

The influence of surface roughness on the dispersion of a passive scalar in a rough wall turbulent boundary layer has been studied using wind-tunnel experiments. The surface roughness was varied using different sizes of roughness elements, and different spacings between the elements. Vertical profiles of average concentration were measured at different distances downwind of the source, and the vertical spread of the plume was computed by fitting a double Gaussian profile to the data. An estimate of the integral length scale is derived from the turbulence characteristics of the boundary layer and is then used to scale the measured values of plume spread. This scaling reduces the variability in the data, confirming the validity of the model for the Lagrangian integral time scale, but does not remove it entirely. The scaled plume spreading shows significant differences from predictions of theoretical models both in the near and in the far field. In the region immediately downwind of the source this is due to the influence of the wake of the injector for which we have developed a simple model. In the far field we explain that the differences are mainly due to the absence of large-scale motions. Finally, further downwind of the source the scaled values of plume spread fall into two distinct groups. It is suggested that the difference between the two groups may be related to the lack of dynamical similarity between the boundary-layer flows for varying surface roughness or to biased estimates of the plume spread.     

Modeled Sverdrup flow in the North Atlantic from 11 different wind stress climatologies

In studies of large-scale ocean dynamics, often quoted values of Sverdrup transport are computed using the Hellerman–Rosenstein wind stress climatology. The Sverdrup solution varies, however, depending on the wind set used. We examine the differences in the large-scale upper ocean response to different surface momentum forcing fields for the North Atlantic Ocean by comparing the different Sverdrup interior/Munk western boundary layer solutions produced by a 1/16° linear numerical ocean model forced by 11 different wind stress climatologies. Significant differences in the results underscore the importance of careful selection of a wind set for Sverdrup transport calculation and for driving nonlinear models. This high-resolution modeling approach to solving the linear wind-driven ocean circulation problem is a convenient way to discern details of the Sverdrup flow and Munk western boundary layers in areas of complicated geometry such as the Caribbean and Bahamas. In addition, the linear solutions from a large number of wind sets provide a well-understood baseline oceanic response to wind stress forcing and thus, (1) insight into the dynamics of observed circulation features, by themselves and in conjunction with nonlinear models, and (2) insight into nonlinear model sensitivity to the choice of wind-forcing product.The wind stress products are evaluated and insight into the linear dynamics of specific ocean features is obtained by examining wind stress curl patterns in relation to the corresponding high-resolution linear solutions in conjunction with observational knowledge of the ocean circulation. In the Sverdrup/Munk solutions, the Gulf Stream pathway consists of two branches. One separates from the coast at the observed separation point, but penetrates due east in an unrealistic manner. The other, which overshoots the separation point at Cape Hatteras and continues to flow northward along the continental boundary, is required to balance the Sverdrup interior transport. A similar depiction of the Gulf Stream is commonly seen in the mean flow of nonlinear, eddy-resolving basin-scale models of the North Atlantic Ocean. An O(1) change from linear dynamics is required for realistic simulation of the Gulf Stream pathway. Nine of the eleven Sverdrup solutions have a C-shaped subtropical gyre, similar to what is seen in dynamic height contours derived from observations. Three mechanisms are identified that can contribute to this pattern in the Sverdrup transport contours. Along 27°N, several wind sets drive realistic total western boundary current transport (within 10% of observed) when a 14 Sv global thermohaline contribution is added (COADS, ECMWF 10 m re-analysis and operational, Hellerman–Rosenstein and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) surface stress re-analysis), a few drive transport that is substantially too high (ECMWF 1000 mb re-analysis and operational and Isemer–Hasse) and Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) surface stresses give linear transport that is slightly weaker than observed. However, higher order dynamics are required to explain the partitioning of this transport between the Florida Straits and just east of the Bahamas (minimal in the linear solutions vs. 5 Sv observed east of the Bahamas). Part of the Azores Current transport is explained by Sverdrup dynamics. So are the basic path of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the circulation features within the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS), when a linear rendition of the northward upper ocean return flow of the global thermohaline circulation is added in the form of a Munk western boundary layer.     

A modified parameterization of flux-profile relationships in the surface layer using different roughness length values for heat and momentum

The surface-layer flux-profile formulae of Louis (1979), used in many atmospheric models, are modified in a simple way to allow for different values of the roughness lengths for heat and momentum. The modified set of formulae simplifies the calculation of surface-layer fluxes over most natural land surfaces, where the roughness length for momentum can be almost an order of magnitude greater than that for heat.     

Characterisation of Soot Emitted by Domestic Heating,Aircraft and Cars Using Diesel or Biodiesel

The characterisation of aggregates, like soot, firstly requires the determination of the size distribution of the primary particles. The primary particle size of combustion generated aggregates depends upon the combustion environment and the formation conditions, such as temperature, pressure and fuel-to-air ratio, among others. Since the combustion characteristics are different in the different types of burners, the characterisation of primary particles may offer the possibility to distinguish soot from different sources. In this paper, we present the signature of the primary particles and the aggregates of soot emitted by cars using diesel or biodiesel, by domestic heating, and by aircraft exhausts, which can be considered as the major sources as derived from measurements on transmission electron micrographs. The size distributions of all aggregates types with different aerodynamic diameter were log-normal and quasi-monodisperse. The size distribution of the primary particles for soot emitted by different sources showed minor differences. However, a comparison between the diameter of the primary particles and those obtained using a standard method for carbon black revealed discrepancies. The median diameter of the primary particles was combined with the median number of primary particles in an aggregate to calculate the relative particle surface area available for adsorption. In a similar way, the relative specific surface area was determined. The surface area was measured using the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (B.E.T.) nitrogen adsorption method and the relative surface area available for adsorption was calculated.     

The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

末次冰期冰盖消融对东亚历史相对海平面的影响及意义

基于新的末次冰期冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型,利用有限元算法模拟了盛冰期以来东亚相对海平面的变化,并与观测数据进行比较分析.研究表明,早期相对海平面上升由盛冰期后全球冰盖消融控制,后期的变化则由地壳黏性均衡调整控制;每个时期的结果均具有显著的区域性差异,与地壳均衡作用及远场均衡效应的区域性差异有关;模拟的不确定性主要来自冰盖消融模型差异的影响,量级在观测误差范围内.此外,利用本文的GIA模拟结果,对东亚海岸历史相对海平面观测进行改正,揭示了华南全新世以来不同阶段的地壳垂直运动,其中3—8 kaBP地壳以较稳定的速率(1~4 mm/a)下沉,之后则以较小速率下降或隆升,推测可能与东南部菲律宾板块的俯冲有关;揭示近千年来粤东海岸和珠江三角洲地壳垂直运动有长期隆升趋势,而近三十年的观测结果则显示下沉,推测该差异与人类活动导致的沉降有关.