Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.     

Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sea level changes induced by local winds on the west coast of India

The contribution of atmospheric pressure and local wind to sea level variability at Goa (West coast of India) for the period 2007–2008 is investigated. Sea level data from a tide gauge are compared with measured local surface meteorological as well as oceanographic data. Multilinear regression analysis is used to resolve the dependence of sea level on various forcing parameters. The multilinear regression analysis performed over approx. 2-year data shows that the local surface meteorological data and water temperature account for the sea level variability only up to 6%. The accounted sea level variability increases to 25%, when the local wind and the surface currents obtained from satellite altimetry in the near vicinity of the study area are incorporated in the regression analysis. The contribution of local wind increases substantially when the regression is performed over a 2-month duration, and it is variable within the year. During the summer monsoon season (May–September), the sea level variability attributable to wind is up to 47% and 75%, respectively, for 2007 and 2008; however, it reduces to <20% during the winter monsoon (November–February) season. A significant part of the variability observed in sea level remains unaccounted for and is attributed to remote forcing.     

Effect of the dilution process on the attenuation of contaminants in aquifers

This paper discusses the effects of the dilution process on levels of aquifer contamination attenuation, developing analytical equations for application in theoretical and practical cases. The key finding is that, in aquifers, the dilution process causes a reduction of the contaminant concentration. Analytical equations for the assessment of the contaminant attenuation capacity, by means of the dilution process in an aquifer, are put forward. In particular, the attenuation of the contaminant concentration in an aquifer, and thus the dilution, is described by the volumetric flow rate per unit width perpendicular to the flow direction (q _u). Moreover, a classification of q _u was developed, considering six classes of attenuation capacity due to dilution. For the equations validation, nitrate contamination attenuation due to dilution was analysed in two sample areas in Piedmont (North-West Italy). The results confirmed the hypothesis, evidencing high nitrate concentrations in areas with low q _u values, connected to low dilution rate of the contaminant in the groundwater; vice versa, low nitrate concentrations were evidenced in areas with high q _u values, due to a high nitrate dilution rate.     

Structural evolution of a 2M 1 phengite mica up to 11 GPa: an in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction study

The structural evolution at high pressure of a natural 2M ₁-phengite [(K_0.98Na_0.02)_Σ=1.00(Al_1.55Mg_0.24Fe_0.21Ti_0.02)_Σ=2.01(Si_3.38Al_0.62)O₁₀(OH)₂; a = 5.228(2), b = 9.057(3), c = 19.971(6)Å, β = 95.76(2)°; space group: C2/c] from the metamorphic complex of Cima Pal (Sesia Zone, Western Alps, Italy) was studied by single-crystal X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions up to ~11 GPa. A series of 12 structure refinements were performed at selected pressures within the P range investigated. The compressional behaviour of the same phengite sample was previously studied up to ~25 GPa by synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction, showing an irreversible transformation with a drastic decrease of the crystallinity at P > 15–17 GPa. The elastic behaviour between 0.0001 and 17 GPa was modelled by a third-order Birch–Murnaghan Equation of State (BM-EoS), yielding to K _T0 = 57.3(10) GPa and K′ = ?K _T0/?P = 6.97(24). The single-crystal structure refinements showed that the significant elastic anisotropy of the 2M ₁-phengite (with β(a):β(b):β(c) = 1:1.17:4.60) is mainly controlled by the anisotropic compression of the K-polyhedra. The evolution of the volume of the inter-layer K-polyhedron as a function of P shows a negative slope, Fitting the P–V(K-polyhedron) data with a truncated second-order BM-EoS we obtain a bulk modulus value of K _T0(K-polyhedron) = 26(1) GPa. Tetrahedra and octahedra are significantly stiffer than the K-polyhedron. Tetrahedra behave as quasi-rigid units within the P range investigated. In contrast, a monotonic decrease is observed for the octahedron volume, with K _T0 = 120(10) GPa derived by a BM-EoS. The anisotropic response to pressure of the K-polyhedron affects the P-induced deformation mechanism on the tetrahedral sheet, consisting in a cooperative rotation of the tetrahedra and producing a significant ditrigonalization of the six-membered rings. The volume of the K-polyhedron and the value of the ditrigonal rotation parameter (α) show a high negative correlation (about 93%), though a slight discontinuity is observed at P >8 GPa. α increases linearly with P up to 7–8 GPa (with ?α/?P ≈ 0.7°/GPa), whereas at higher Ps a “saturation plateau” is visible. A comparison between the main deformation mechanisms as a function of pressure observed in 2M ₁- and 3T-phengite is discussed.     

Improvement of Nakamura technique by singular spectrum analysis

In this work we investigate the application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis to improve Nakamura Technique. The SSA has a wide and multidisciplinary range of applications; it allows a time series to be decomposed into different components, e.g. the signal itself, as well as various noise components, which can be subsequently removed from the data. Removal of the minor component of the data can lead to significant improvements in the identification of the system. In this paper the use of SSA Technique allows to optimize the signal to noise ratio before computing the classical Nakamura spectral ratios. A number of typical applications are also presented.     

Sedimentary and geochemical characterization of Middle–Late Miocene formations in the Neogene Tsugaru Basin,Japan by means of DTH27‐1 well sediment analysis

Middle–Late Miocene age siliceous formations outcropping along the northwestern side of Honshu Island are considered prospective source rocks for hydrocarbons. An analysis of geophysical, sedimentological, and geochemical properties is essential to evaluate the formations' source potential, and to understand the factors that determined the accumulation and preservation of organic matter. This study investigates the Middle–Late Miocene geological record of the Tsugaru back‐arc basin, located in the western part of Aomori prefecture, through an analysis of a 200 m long portion of a core from the DTH27‐1 well; this core is composed of the diatomaceous siltstones of the Akaishi Formation and the siliceous mudstones of the Odoji Formation. Sedimentological and geophysical characterization showed that the Akaishi Formation's diatomaceous siltstones are mostly massive and bioturbated, have low magnetic susceptibility, and demonstrate moderate natural radioactivity. Although the Odoji Formation's siliceous mudstones are massive, they have exceedingly low magnetic susceptibility and high natural radioactivity. Geochemical data from a Rock‐Eval Pyrolysis such as total organic carbon and generative potential (S1 + S2) revealed that, in the Tsugaru area, only the Odoji Formation is a likely prospective source rock for hydrocarbons. On the other hand, T_max values indicate that both the formations are thermally immature for generating hydrocarbons. The difference between the Akaishi and Odoji Formation in the sedimentological facies, in terms of the degree of bioturbation and the organic carbon content, indicates variations in lithological properties, such as porosity and grain size; moreover, this difference indicates a variation in the paleo‐oxygenation of bottom waters, with the transition from oxygen‐deficient conditions in the Middle Miocene to the more oxygenated conditions in the Late Miocene. Both the lithological and paleo‐environmental factors possibly influenced the organic richness in the two formations.     

Optimal weakening and damping using polynomial control for seismically excited nonlinear structures

This paper presents an approach for the optimal design of a new retrofi t technique called weakening and damping that is valid for civil engineering inelastic structures.An alternative design methodology is developed with respect to the existing ones that is able to determine the locations and the magnitude of weakening and/or softening of structural elements and adding damping while insuring structural stability.An optimal polynomial controller that is a summation of polynomials in nonlinear states is used...     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.