Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after main shock

We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004. We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time T_s and the minimum magnitude threshold M_min for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short T_s and low M_min while the latters generally perform better than the formers for T_s longer than a few hours and M_min larger than the main shock magnitude M_m minus 3 units. For T_s > 1 day or M_min > M_m − 2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock. We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL). We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOM with c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.     

Excavation of the Aica-Mules pilot tunnel for the Brenner base tunnel: information gained on water inflows in tunnels in granitic massifs

The construction of the Aica-Mules tunnel, completed in 2010, provides a relevant case history for improving the knowledge of hydrogeological issues related to the excavation of deep tunnels in granitic massifs. The Aica-Mules tunnel is a 10 km-long structure, forming part of the high-speed railway connection between Austria and Italy across the Alpine chain, located at an average depth of 500–1,000 m below the surface. Prior to and during the construction, intense hydrogeological monitoring was set up, allowing the collection of abundant data concerning: (1) the evolution of water inflows into the tunnel; (2) the chemistry and temperature of drained groundwater; and (3) the influence of tunnel drainage on springs. Based on detailed analysis of geological/hydrogeological data, this article provides an insight into the permeability distribution in granitic rocks affected by relevant brittle tectonic deformation, and the consequences of water inflow during excavation. The available time series from the principal water discharges in the tunnel have been used in order to test the reliability of some of the most commonly applied analytical methods for the forecast of water inflows into tunnels.     

Do emissions and income have a common trend? A country-specific,time-series,global analysis, 1970–2008

This paper analyzes the relation between income and emissions in the period 1970–2008, for all world countries. We consider time-series of CO₂, SO₂ and GWP100, and use Vector Autoregressive models that allow for nonstationarity and cointegration. At 5 % significance level, income and emissions are found to be driven by unrelated random walks with drift (respectively by a common random walk with drift) in about 70 % (respectively 25 %) of cases; in the remaining cases the variables are trend-stationary. Tests of Granger-causality show evidence of both directions of causality. For the case of unrelated stochastic trends, we almost never find income driving emissions, as predicted by a consumption-function interpretation. These causality results and the absence of a common trend challenge the main implications of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, namely that the dominant direction of causality should be from income to emissions, and that for increasing levels of income, emissions should tend to decrease.     

On the use of leaf water to determine plant water source: A proof of concept

Source water apportionment studies using the dual isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen have revolutionized our understanding of ecohydrology. But despite these developments—mostly over the past decade—many technical problems still exist in terms of linking xylem water to its soil water and groundwater sources. This is mainly due to sampling issues and possible fractionation of xylem water. Here we explore whether or not leaf water alone can be used to quantify the blend of rainfall event inputs from which the leaf water originates. Leaf water has historically been avoided in plant water uptake studies due to the extreme fractionation processes at the leaf surface. In our proof of concept work we embrace those processes and use the well-known Craig and Gordon model to map leaf water back to its individual precipitation event water sources. We also employ a Bayesian uncertainty estimation approach to quantify source apportionment uncertainties. We show this using a controlled, vegetated lysimeter experiment where we were able to use leaf water to correctly identify the mean seasonal rainfall that was taken up by the plant, with an uncertainty typically within ± 1‰ for δ¹⁸O. While not appropriate for all source water studies, this work shows that leaf water isotope composition may provide a new, relatively un-intrusive method for addressing questions about the plant water source.     

Dynamics of three-block assemblies with unilateral deformable contacts. Part 1: contact modelling

As far as the dynamics of multibody systems is concerned, a brief review has been performed in order to frame the dynamic response of a trilith (the simplest scheme of a colonnade belonging to a temple) into a wide theoretical background. Under the assumption of rigid bodies, two different approaches can be found in the literature: rigid or deformable contacts formulation. In this paper, an effort is made at outlining the principle of rigid contact formulation and of deformable contact formulation. The latter approach can be assumed within the framework of the distinct element method; for this purpose a model of deformable contact has been proposed in order to simulate the real behaviour of stone joints. The sample application referred to the trilith will be presented in Part 2. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vertical oscillations due to axial-bending coupling during seismic response of RC bridge piers

The paper presents a numerical investigation on the behaviour of reinforced concrete bridge piers subjected to horizontal seismic input. The scope of the investigation is to quantify the phenomenon of bending-induced axial vibrations. The results of a set of analyses conducted on single-column bent systems indicate that flexural cracking produces, in fact, significant axial vibrations. This effect is particularly relevant in squat elements with low axial force where the sway of the cross-sectional neutral axis under alternate bending causes strong hammering impulses at crack closure. Quantification of the effects related to this phenomenon can be determinant for the seismic assessment of existing bridges as well as for the design of new bridges. Likewise, performance and design forces of bearings and other anti-seismic devices can be estimated with more accuracy, based on the expected level of combined vertical and horizontal acceleration response on decks. The pier overall flexural response is not significantly altered by the fluctuation in axial force associated to these impulses, although local moment–curvature behaviour is, due to axial–bending interaction. Shear resisting mechanisms should be more sensitive to these vibrations and shear failure anticipated when a reduction in the axial contribution to the section shear capacity occurs. A tentative equation for the prediction of this flexural-induced vertical acceleration component is proposed based on simplified section kinematics and elastic impact analysis. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of benthic indicators in Europe: from the Water Framework Directive to the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) are the European umbrella regulations for water systems. It is a challenge for the scientific community to translate the principles of these directives into realistic and accurate approaches. The aim of this paper, conducted by the Benthos Ecology Working Group of ICES, is to describe how the principles have been translated, which were the challenges and best way forward. We have tackled the following principles: the ecosystem-based approach, the development of benthic indicators, the definition of ‘pristine’ or sustainable conditions, the detection of pressures and the development of monitoring programs. We concluded that testing and integrating the different approaches was facilitated during the WFD process, which led to further insights and improvements, which the MSFD can rely upon. Expert involvement in the entire implementation process proved to be of vital importance.     

Drill‐bit seismic interferometry with and without pilot signals*

We use different interferometry approaches to process the seismic signals generated by a drill‐bit source in one well and recorded by seismic receivers located both in a second borehole and at the surface near the source well. We compare the standard interferometry results, obtained by using the raw drill‐bit data without a pilot signal, with the new interferometry results obtained by using the drill‐bit seismograms correlated with a reference pilot signal. The analysis of the stationary phase shows that the final results have different S/N levels and are affected by the coherent noise in the form of rig arrivals. The interferometry methods are compared by using different deconvolution approaches. The analysis shows that the results agree with the conventional drill‐bit seismograms and that using the reference pilot signal improves the quality of the drill‐bit wavefields redatumed by the interferometry method.